Atlantic Update 1/25/11

Transatlantic

Each weekday, Atlantic Update will highlight top news stories and columns vital to understanding the transatlantic space.

HEADLINES:

Tunisian Revolution Forces a Rethink in Europe (Spiegel)

The fall of the regime in Tunis took the European Union by surprise and exposed France’s contradictory policy. The tumult is now threatening to spread to other North African countries, with further protests. The Europeans are now forced to rethink their position: Should they be pushing for democracy or stability?

Caucasus is threatening to become Russia’s Iraq (Deutsche Welle)

With Moscow investigators reportedly searching for a trio of Chechens in connection with Monday’s suicide bombing at Domodedovo airport, attention has once again turned to the volatile North Caucasus, where Russia has been battling a stubborn insurgency for years.

The area has been troubled since Russian troops marched into Chechnya in 1994 following the state’s unilateral declaration of independence. After the initial war and reoccupation of the capital city Grozny, the soldiers returned in 1999, starting what has become known as the second Chechen war, which ended with Russia’s unstable military occupation of the province.

CHP under fire for efforts to ‘save’ Ergenekon suspects through politics (Today’s Zaman)

In remarks that were meant to reveal Republican People’s Party (CHP) plans to nominate some suspects in the ongoing trial on Ergenekon — a clandestine gang charged with plotting to overthrow to government — for CHP candidates for Parliament, the party’s Deputy Chairman Süheyl Batum has said the CHP will try all methods to achieve this goal, drawing strong criticism for explicitly lending support to members of a terrorist group and for helping them evade trial.

Italy Finally Loses Patience with Berlusconi (Spiegel)

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi in embroiled in yet another sex scandal, involving accusations of prostitution and abuse of power. But the biggest question is how long the country will continue to put up with its leader.

Labour extends lead over Tories in latest Guardian/ICM poll (Guardian)

Labour has extended its lead over the Conservatives but voters have yet to warm to Ed Miliband as a potential prime minister, according to a Guardian/ICM poll.

Carried out before today’s poor GDP figures were published, but after the resignations of Andy Coulson and Alan Johnson, the poll confirms that Labour’s overall position has strengthened since the autumn. The party is on 39%, unchanged from the last ICM poll of 2010 and up 10 points since Britain voted last May.

The Conservatives are on 35%, down two to their joint-worst ICM score since the general election. The Liberal Democrats are on 15%, up two. Other parties are on a combined share of 11%, including Scottish and Welsh nationalists on 4%, Greens on 3% and Ukip with 2%.

Government comes under pressure over Finance Bill (Irish Times)

The Government faces renewed problems as several Independent TDs have warned their backing for the Finance Bill, which is being debated in the Dáil this afternoon, is not guaranteed.

Tipperary North TD Michael Lowry said today his support and the backing of Kerry South TD Jackie Healy-Rae should not be taken for granted. Tipperary South TD Mattie McGrath, who confirmed today he has left Fianna Fáil and would be running as an Independent in the general election, also said he would not be supporting the Bill.

Military ombudsman cites leadership weaknesses in annual report (Deutsche Welle)

The parliamentary ombudsman for the German military, the Bundeswehr, has said there are massive weaknesses in the military’s leadership in an annual report released Tuesday.

Speaking to reporters in Berlin, Hellmut Königshaus said young rank-and-file service members and supervisors with little experience "sometimes lack the wisdom and intuition for seeing when boundaries of breach of duty and criminal offense are crossed."

The 70-page report said inappropriate behavior and disparaging remarks often go unrecognized and unpunished, citing a hazing scandal in the mountain infantry of the Bavarian town of Mittenwald uncovered in early 2010.

The report, prepared by a panel led by former Israeli Supreme Court Justice Jacob Turkel, supports the Israeli argument that “the imposition of the naval blockade on the Gaza Strip was lawful and complied with the rules of international law, in view of the security circumstances and Israel’s efforts to fulfill its humanitarian obligations." It also defends acts by Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers who killed nine passengers on the ship Mavi Marmara during the May 31 raid, saying they “encountered a real resistance force, armed with clubs, iron rods, chairs, etc.”

Israeli report unlikely to change minds in Turkey (Today’s Zaman)

An Israeli panel report clearing the military and government of any wrongdoing during last year’s deadly raid on a Gaza-bound international flotilla is unlikely to change minds among Israel’s international critics or those in Turkey who say Israeli soldiers are responsible for nine deaths and several injuries and that it should apologize for the tragedy.

The report, prepared by a panel led by former Israeli Supreme Court Justice Jacob Turkel, supports the Israeli argument that “the imposition of the naval blockade on the Gaza Strip was lawful and complied with the rules of international law, in view of the security circumstances and Israel’s efforts to fulfill its humanitarian obligations." It also defends acts by Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers who killed nine passengers on the ship Mavi Marmara during the May 31 raid, saying they “encountered a real resistance force, armed with clubs, iron rods, chairs, etc.”

EDITORIALS AND COLUMNS:

Russia Must Develop an Alternative to Islamism in the Caucasus (Mattias Schepp, Spiegel)

Speaking on television shortly after Monday’s deadly attack on Moscow’s Domodedovo Airport, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev seemed shaken, almost helpless. "This is a terrorist act," Medvedev said, putting into words what was already obvious to observers.

The attack, which according to current figures killed 35 people and injured well over 100, puts the Russian leader under considerable political pressure. His vision of economic development for restive provinces in the Caucasus, such as Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan, as a means of combating militant Islam, seems increasingly naive. His dream of promoting tourism in the troubled region appears more unrealistic than ever.

The Broken Consensus: America’s Contested Primacy (Eric Edelman, World Affairs Journal)

The debate over America’s possible decline is not academic. Perceptions of U.S. power guide both American policymakers and other nations as they consider their policy options. And those tempted to write an ending to the story of American influence should remember that history has not been kind to declinists. The emerging international environment is likely to be different than either of the futures forecast by the National Intelligence Council in 2004 and 2008. It would seem more likely that the relative decline of American power will still leave the United States as the most powerful actor in the international system, but the rise of other nations and the spread of nuclear weapons in key regions will likely confront the United States with difficult challenges to its global position.

Davos Man needs his image polishing (Economist)

 Few used-car salesmen are invited to join the business leaders, politicians, do-gooders and celebrities on the annual pilgrimage to the Swiss mountain village of Davos that is the World Economic Forum. More’s the pity—for their presence would probably increase the amount of trust that the public has in Davos Man and Woman.

At the start of the WEF in recent years, the great and the good have been forced to consider what the world thinks of them by Edelman, a PR firm, which publishes its annual Trust Barometer. This year’s report might fool attendees into momentary optimism with its headline conclusion that “Trust Stabilises Globally”’, but only until they realise that stabilising low levels of trust is not exactly a triumph. Besides, on closer inspection of the data—garnered by polling members of the “informed public” (college-educated, in the top quarter by earnings for their age and country, etc) in 23 countries—it turns out that, rather than stabilising, in many respects trust is continuing to decline.

Overall, trust in business to do the “right thing” has risen globally to 56%, up from 54% last year, ahead of trust in government, at 52% compared with 47% last year, and the media, trusted by less than half of those polled— though at 49%, better than last year’s 45%. The world’s most trusted institutions, again, are non-governmental organisations (NGOs), with their trust levels up to 61% from 57% in 2010.

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