Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with US President Donald Trump this Thursday at the White House comes as US-Indian relations are in a strong position. The United States increasingly views India as an ally to help it balance against China, and Washington and New Delhi have been working toward common goals in the broader Indo-Pacific. In short, there are ample reasons for both leaders to further cement their countries’ bilateral ties. However, this is not a moment of complacency for India—far from it. Instead, India must continue to actively engage with the United States to maintain the two countries’ strong ties during what is shaping up to be an unpredictable second Trump presidency.
Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has visited the United States twice after the US elections, including for a front-row seat at Trump’s inauguration. And as Modi becomes one of the first global leaders to meet with Trump in his second term, India is working to be a consistently visible presence in Washington, DC. India’s commitment to active diplomatic engagement, along with the prime minister’s strong base of support at home, will put the country in a strong position to prioritize strengthening relations with the United States. In this week’s meeting, Modi’s top priorities will be avoiding US tariffs against India, setting the stage for trade and defense deals with Washington, and making progress on bilateral immigration policy.
The search for big wins
Trade will no doubt be at the top of Trump’s agenda when he meets with Modi on Thursday. India has a trade surplus with the United States of $45.6 billion, and Trump has criticized India as a “tariff king” for its high import duties. Though Trump sought a trade deal with India in his first term, an agreement did not come together before he left office. The Biden administration did not pursue a trade deal with India, so it would be a significant development if Trump and Modi were to move forward on negotiations for one now.
Modi is reportedly coming to Washington ready with his list of tariff concessions to push for discussions, and India has taken steps in its 2025 budget to avoid sending protectionist signals. He will try to avoid the pattern that is emerging in US trade relations, in which the Trump administration has announced tariffs first, then followed up with negotiations and concessions. Though India is investing significant diplomatic time and effort in avoiding a trade war with the United States, whether Trump responds to these proposals depends on how India plays its other cards.
A major card that India will be able to play in trade negotiations is its defense sector. Trump stated in his conversation with Modi last month that he wanted India to buy more US military hardware. Trump would also likely want India to invest more in military procurement to offset its trade surplus with the United States. Given the confluence of interests and Modi’s willingness to make concessions on these issues, expect both leaders to negotiate toward major agreements on trade and defense.
Exceptions and immigration
In its relations with the United States, India has frequently made a case for exceptions. It is the only non-treaty ally of the United States with access to certain US missile technology, and has argued for exceptions to US sanctions on other countries. While the case for many of these exceptions may be valid, the variable is Trump’s tolerance and patience with the exceptions India enjoys. After all, these are potential pressure points that Trump could use as leverage in the future. If the exceptions, in his view, impede his larger strategic goals, then he may not negotiate on them. However, these exceptions also give India a bilateral opportunity to remove itself from sweeping measures.
Take, for example, illegal immigration in the United States, an issue Trump highlighted in his phone call with Modi on January 27. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, too, raised this issue in his first bilateral discussion with Jaishankar. On February 5, India accepted more than one hundred Indian illegal immigrants from the United States, who arrived aboard a US military aircraft. The two countries have identified that around 18,000 Indian nationals are in the United States without a legal status. India could offer to send its own aircraft to get more of these individuals back, also giving it more control over their treatment and legal verification of Indian origin, or it could let the United States continue its own repatriation flights under Trump administration rules.
Yet, beyond illegal immigration, legal pathways to working, living, and gaining citizenship in the United States have also been in the crosshairs of many of Trump’s supporters and allies. These include H1-B work visas, many of which are obtained by Indian nationals. Though the president and his billionaire adviser Elon Musk have defended H1-B visas, the pathways to legal citizenship in the United States have become a bottleneck. The United States and India can only find a long-term understanding on immigration if the two leaders take it up at the highest level. For context, India and Germany’s Comprehensive Migration and Mobility Partnership is a great example of bilateral consensus. Such an agreement between the United States and India would be a big win on both sides and potentially set the model for the legal immigration pathways Trump wants to promote.
While progress can be made on some of these issues on Thursday, the greater likelihood is that they will take more time to develop. That is why, perhaps most importantly, this week’s meeting is an opportunity for the two leaders to set an amicable tone for the next four years. The US president and Indian prime minister enjoyed a readily apparent camaraderie during Trump’s first term. Reviving and sustaining that spirit will be necessary for India to avoid US tariffs, open the door to trade negotiations, increase defense cooperation, and work with the Trump administration on immigration policy.
Srujan Palkar is the Global India fellow and an assistant director at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative.
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Image: Washington DC, June 24 (ANI): Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the gathering during the community event, at Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in Washington DC, USA on Friday. ANI Photo. PIB via Reuters Connect.