Karol Nawrocki, who takes over as Poland’s president on August 6, owes his rapid ascent to a significant shift in voters’ political opinions and ideological preferences, some of which have echoes in the political scene in the United States. Those trends, and Nawrocki’s approach to politics, could serve the new head of state well in his dealings with US President Donald Trump—and help keep both countries aligned in the contest against Russia.
Nawrocki’s narrow win in June came as a surprise, as his opponent, the liberal mayor of Warsaw Rafal Trzaskowski, was largely regarded as a shoo-in. However, Trzaskowski’s poor campaign and apparent detachment from vast segments of Polish society led to his failure.
Nawrocki will keep the presidency in the hands of the rightist Law and Justice party, following Andrzej Duda’s two terms. And though the centrist Donald Tusk was elected prime minister in 2023, his win masked a shift to the right in public opinion.
Anti-immigration views in Poland have been on the rise for several years. “Traditional” values are steadily recovering ground, particularly among the younger generation. And many citizens are less enthusiastic about Poland’s membership in the European Union. An April 2024 survey found that while a majority (77 percent) support Poland’s EU membership, this share experienced a 15 percentage point decline from 2022. Attitudes toward the roughly one million Ukrainian refugees living in Poland have cooled as well. In another poll, conducted in February, 75 percent of Poles opposed accepting migrants into the country.
Nawrocki’s foreign policy agenda will be shaped by bilateral relations with Ukraine and the United States, at least in the early stages of his tenure. In the Polish constitutional framework, the office of the president is jointly responsible for Poland’s security policy, along with the government. Consequently, from Nawrocki’s viewpoint, smooth cooperation and partnership with both Washington and Kyiv, especially in the military sphere, will be of paramount importance.
It would be unrealistic, though, to assume that Nawrocki’s personal bond with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be as robust, as friendly, and as emotional as Duda’s. In the first phone call between the two leaders this past week, Nawrocki assured his counterpart that Poland’s support for Kyiv in the face of Russian aggression will remain unwavering. But he additionally expressed his expectation that Ukrainian authorities would finally address some historical issues that still constitute a stumbling block in bilateral relations. Nawrocki referred mostly to the Volhynia massacre in 1943, in which between 60,000 and 100,000 Poles were murdered by Ukrainian nationalists.
Nawrocki’s position perfectly encapsulates an old truth: In Poland you can be viscerally anti-Russian but not necessarily unconditionally pro-Ukrainian.
In parallel, as a Polish politician, you can be pro-American without being unconditionally pro-Trump—an equation many commentators in Western Europe are unable to grasp.
Since Trump’s election to a second term, Law and Justice leadership has seemed enamored of Trump’s peculiar kind of conservatism and his drive against cultural liberalism, or the “woke” agenda. Law and Justice members of parliament once famously chanted his name in the Polish parliament. “Make Poland Great Again” became a favorite call to arms of large chunks of the Polish right. Nevertheless, after a few months, the infatuation began to fade, essentially due to Trump’s disturbing remarks on the war in Ukraine and his lenient approach to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Even for the staunchest Polish Trump fans, any expressions of admiration for the Russian dictator would be plainly unpalatable.
Interestingly, the US president’s recent U-turn, including a hardening rhetoric and repeated threats aimed at Moscow, are a blessing for Nawrocki, who is himself subject to an arrest warrant issued by the Russian Federation. Trump has long had words of appreciation for Poland as a beacon in terms of military expenditures (now at a NATO-leading 4 percent of gross domestic product), as opposed to other European member states. Tellingly, however, the US president has never praised Poland’s unequivocal stance against Russia’s growing aggressiveness and neo-imperial ambitions. With Trump’s more assertive stance toward Russia in recent days, Nawrocki can now align his views with Trump’s, for the mutual benefit of both countries.
It is in US and Polish interests for Russia to be ultimately defeated. Nawrocki’s predecessor worked hard—with mixed results—to convince Trump that this is the right direction of travel. Under the new circumstances, Nawrocki’s efforts in this respect could prove more fruitful than Duda’s. Apparently, the US president already perceives the incoming Polish president as a fellow crusader in the global fight against wokeism. If Nawrocki also became a reliable ally in Trump’s struggle against Russian imperialism, this would be a most desirable (though slightly unexpected) turn of events.
Marek Magierowski is a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center and the director of strategy for the Poland program at the Freedom Institute in Warsaw. He previously served as Poland’s ambassador to the United States and to Israel.
Further reading
Mon, Jun 2, 2025
Experts react: Conservative Karol Nawrocki is Poland’s next president. What does it mean for Poland, Europe, and the world?
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On June 1, the historian and former boxer triumphed in Poland’s presidential election. Atlantic Council experts share their insights on the contest, the winner, and what’s next.
Fri, Mar 14, 2025
Why Poland’s president wants US nuclear weapons
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President Andrzej Duda said this week that US nuclear weapons should be deployed in his country. To understand why, look at not just Poland's security but also its politics.
Mon, Jan 6, 2025
What to expect from Poland’s EU presidency and its focus on ‘Security, Europe!’
New Atlanticist By Aaron Korewa
Poland sought a leadership role in Europe, and now it has one as it takes up the six-month presidency of the Council of the European Union.
Image: Polish presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki, backed by the main opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, reacts to the exit polls of the second round of the presidential election, in Warsaw, Poland, June 1, 2025. REUTERS/Aleksandra Szmigiel