Nuclear Deterrence

The specter of Russian tactical nuclear de-escalation strikes, more sophisticated Chinese ballistic-missile submarines, and intercontinental North Korean capabilities all raise the stakes for nuclear deterrence. US policy makers must decide which nuclear posture will allow the United States to credibly deter nuclear war while assuring its allies and partners across the globe.

Our nuclear deterrence work

Nuclear strategy project

The Scowcroft Center is proud to play a central role in crafting an effective and nonpartisan strategic forces policy for the twenty-first century.

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Content

Issue Brief

Mar 27, 2026

Deterrence in a two-peer world requires prudence

By Kingston Reif

Washington faces the challenge of preserving credible deterrence and reassuring allies against two potential nuclear peers—possibly acting together—without fueling dangerous instability or draining resources from other defense priorities. This will require a balanced approach that avoids counterproductive arsenal growth.

China Nuclear Deterrence

Issue Brief

Mar 27, 2026

Why US strategic nuclear forces must expand after New START

By Paul Amato

With the New START treaty's caps on the US nuclear force expired, the United States has an opportunity to increase and adapt its nuclear force to deter both Russia and China. Policymakers should seize it.

China Defense Policy

Report

Mar 9, 2026

Strategy for a new nuclear age

By Michael Albertson, Paul Amato, Henry "Trey" Obering, Ankit Panda, Kingston Reif, Amy Woolf

As it carries out strikes on Iran's nuclear program, the United States confronts a wider and ever more complex landscape of nuclear threats, with Russia, North Korea, and China all boosting their arsenals. In this new nuclear age, how should US policymakers think about force size, arms control, and missile defense?

Arms Control China

Dispatches

Mar 4, 2026

What Macron’s changes to French nuclear policy mean for European security

By Jonathan Rosenstein and Emily Cheesman

The president’s plan, announced on March 2, expands France’s nuclear arsenal and deepens its cooperation on deterrence with European allies.

France Nuclear Deterrence

In the News

Feb 18, 2026

Kroenig interviewed on NHK Japan Broadcasting on the expiration of New START

By Atlantic Council

On February 13, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director Matthew Kroenig was interviewed on NHK Japan Broadcasting about the expiration of New START and implications for the US and its allies.

Nuclear Deterrence Security & Defense

In the News

Jan 30, 2026

Kroenig quoted in Wall Street Journal on adversary nuclear capabilities

By Atlantic Council

On January 30, Atlantic Council vice president and Scowcroft Center senior director Matthew Kroenig was quoted in The Wall Street Journal on Russian and Chinese nuclear capabilities amid discussions on renewing New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.

China Nuclear Deterrence

In the News

Jan 30, 2026

Amato in RealClearDefense on the 2025 National Security Strategy

By Atlantic Council

On January 29, Forward Defense Nonresident Senior Fellow Paul Amato published an article in RealClearDefense on the Trump administration’s ambiguity on nuclear deterrence in the Korean peninsula. In the article, Amato argues that silence on the regime ending policy risks emboldening North Korea and unsettling South Korea and Japan.

Japan Korea

Report

Jan 21, 2026

Countering Russian escalation in space

By John Klein, Clementine G. Starling-Daniels

Current US space policy and acquisitions are inadequate to address the growing threats from Russia in space. The United States needs a more resilient space architecture, able to withstand major-power conflict—and Russia’s designs to place a nuclear weapon in orbit. Here are fifteen recommendations to make that happen.

China Missile Defense

Issue Brief

Dec 22, 2025

Is extending the New START limits in the US national security interest?

By Greg Weaver

This issue brief will ask and answer the question of whether extending the New START limits is in the US national security interest.

Arms Control Nuclear Deterrence

Issue Brief

Dec 22, 2025

Nuclear priorities for the Trump administration: A time to decide

By Matthew Kroenig, Jonathan Rosenstein

This report offers recommendations to the Donald Trump administration for policy and investment decisions that will shape this new era of strategic competition in the United States’ favor.

China Missile Defense
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Experts

Fellow

Paul Amato

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Forward Defense Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Missile Defense Nuclear Deterrence

Fellow

Kevin P. Chilton

Distinguished Fellow

Forward Defense Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Cybersecurity Defense Industry

Fellow

Sungmin Cho

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Indo-Pacific Security Initiative Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

China Defense Policy

Fellow

Danny Citrinowicz  

Nonresident Fellow

Rafik Hariri Center & Middle East programs

Arabic Cybersecurity

Fellow

Jonathan Corrado

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Indo-Pacific Security Initiative Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Indo-Pacific Korea

Fellow

Akiko Fukushima

Nonresident Senior Fellow

Indo-Pacific Security Initiative Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Defense Policy East Asia
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