What to expect from Poland’s EU presidency and its focus on ‘Security, Europe!’
At the start of the year, Poland took over the rotating six-month presidency of the Council of the European Union (EU) from Hungary. The Poles choose “Security, Europe!” as the theme of the presidency, and Warsaw said it will “support activities strengthening European security in all its dimensions: external, internal, information, economic, energy, food, and health.”
This is an ambitious agenda, and with Russia’s aggression against Ukraine rolling into a fourth bloody year, Warsaw’s focus is arguably the right one. Poland understands something that Russia has communicated on many occasions but that too many in Europe still seem to deny or ignore—that Ukraine is only one part of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s assault on the West. To prevail, the West must build resilience across the board.
Poland has tempered expectations of its EU presidency by signaling that it does not seek to pass copious new amounts of legislation. Instead, it seeks to influence the overall political direction of the EU. Again, this is a wise decision considering these presidencies last for only six months and a new European Commission has just been formed. Done right, the country holding the presidency can act as an honest broker and help set the course that will extend well beyond its term. At a time when both Germany and France are on a hiatus from their traditional EU leaderships roles, the stage is very much set for Poland to lead.
There will be challenges, of course. For example, Poland is the largest recipient of support from the EU budget, and its leaders must now convince its critics that it is Europe, not just Poland, that stands to benefit from making progress on Warsaw’s priorities. While Germany and France have often pursued their own national interests within the framework of European objectives, Poland may find that doing the same encounters more hurdles. That the country receives quite a bit more than it pays into the EU budget could draw criticism of its agenda. And while Warsaw will view this as unfair, such criticism is rarely fair, and yet it still needs to be dealt with.
In the first of the seven dimensions of security—external—Warsaw is right to “push for an in-depth debate on defense financing in the EU,” as it outlined on the presidency’s official homepage. However, to avoid criticism that this is simply Poland seeking EU money for its own defense, much of the focus should be on Europeans finally taking primary responsibility for European security. This will address how the EU can be complementary to NATO, ensure proper support for Ukraine, and protect a positive relationship with Washington. If EU funds can be used for infrastructure, such as roads, they can be used for defense as well.
Another area where Warsaw has its thinking right is in food security. Poland has emphasized that the European Green Deal should encourage rather than force farmers to take action to protect the environment. The fact that almost all of Europe has had its version of farmer protests shows that the previous approach was not working.
Poland also has the basics right on the need to protect the EU’s borders by calling for a safe migration policy. The EU needs to be able to respond to Russian hybrid warfare in the form of migrant flows, such as has been seen from Belarus into Poland and on the Finnish border. No doubt critics will frame this to mean that Brussels agrees to the ever-tougher sealing of borders (a long-time Polish position). But the Poles are correct in seeing this as one of the main issues fueling anti-EU populist political forces. As a centrist with credibility in fighting populism, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk could make the point that addressing these issues, not ignoring them, is essential.
Another challenge will be handling relations with the new US administration. Incoming US President Donald Trump’s preference for bilateral trade negotiations, despite trade being one of the few issues for which the European Commission is the sole negotiator, could cause unnecessary tension. The best Poland could do here is to make sure that EU member states keep each other informed of any pressures or incentives coming to them from Washington. In doing so, however, Tusk could face some pressure from home by an opposition that is sympathetic to Trump and might accuse the prime minister of damaging Poland’s longstanding ties with the United States.
Finally, Poles need to make sure their political fights stay at home and are not carried over to the European stage. Yes, the government will be tempted to use the prestige the presidency gives to boost its candidate in the upcoming presidential election in May. But the opposition also has a chance to use this time constructively. Polish President Andrzej Duda has a good relationship with Trump and plans are underway for the new US president to visit Poland in 2025, ideally for the Three Seas Initiative summit in April, which is not an EU presidency-related event.
Poland sought a leadership role in Europe, and now it has one. The EU presidency offers a chance to improve the position of Poland in Brussels, steer Europe on the right course with regard to security and resilience, and move US-EU relations forward on a constructive note. Success depends mostly on Poland, to be sure, but even critics of Warsaw need to recognize the urgent and overriding need for new thinking and perspectives in Europe.
Aaron Korewa is the director of the Atlantic Council’s Warsaw Office, which is part of the Europe Center.
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Image: European Council President Antonio Costa and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk meet as they attend a gala on the day of an official opening of the Polish presidency of the Council of the European Union, in Warsaw, Poland January 3, 2025. Agencja Wyborcza.pl/Slawomir Kaminski/via REUTERS