Following Venezuela’s stolen election on July 28, the government-controlled National Electoral Council declared Nicolás Maduro the winner, despite failing to provide the electoral tallies as evidence. However, the opposition successfully collected and published over 80 percent of the electoral bulletins, showing opposition candidate Edmundo González as the clear winner. The United States and regional countries including Panama, Argentina, and Peru recognized González as the winner, and the European Union (EU) stated that it will not recognize the legitimacy of Maduro as the elected president without evidence. Although there have been attempts from Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico to restart negotiations involving the government and the opposition, the possibility of a transition in Venezuela appears dim after González was forced to seek asylum in Spain.
The government has responded to massive protests with heavy repression. More than 2,400 people have been arrested in the postelection crackdown. At least two dozen have been killed. Maduro has blocked or restricted international news sites and social media platforms including X and Signal. The National Assembly passed a law to increase the regulation of civil society organizations (CSOs) in mid-August. While the fine print is not yet public, human rights activists fear the law will stifle the efforts of even the most apolitical CSOs, including health and humanitarian organizations. An arrest warrant for González forced the election winner into exile, and opposition leader María Corina Machado’s allies continue to face harassment and detainment.
Amid these bleak circumstances, the worst thing the international community can do is succumb to fatigue. While Venezuelans must lead any effort to advance a transition, the United States and its Latin American and European allies must coordinate sustained and targeted efforts to encourage dialogue and prevent further regional destabilization. In the lead-up to the January 10 presidential inauguration, regional leaders must push for a credible negotiations process to preserve space for a democratic transition while preventing Maduro from drifting further toward Russia and China. The way the United States and its allies engage with or isolate Maduro in the coming months will have hemispheric implications for both migration and security.
A combination of negotiations and targeted pressure led the Maduro government to organize a July 28 presidential election that reinforced the true extent of his unpopularity and illegitimate rule. Future efforts to pair negotiations and pressure should build on this model of multilateral coordination by leveraging the unique positioning of a variety of actors. Governments are critical players, but multilateral organizations including the United Nations, the Organization of American States, and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States can also push for credible negotiations. Each country or organization should recognize the opportunities and limitations that it holds from its respective position.
Brazil and Colombia
Brazil and Colombia have declined to explicitly condemn Venezuela’s election as fraudulent. Rather, they have remained engaged with the Maduro government while calling for transparency, initially stepping in to shoulder the burden of mediation along with Mexico. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said he was “disappointed” with Maduro’s behavior regarding the election, but that Brazil will maintain relations and work toward a “negotiated” solution. The costs of an electoral condemnation and a potential break in relations would be immense for Brazil and Colombia, neighbors of Venezuela that have struggled to mitigate the increase in drug trafficking and violence that have been perpetuated from within the country. Both countries have received an influx of Venezuelan migrants and refugees: Brazil hosts more than 568,000, and Colombia houses over 2.8 million. This number is expected to rise in the coming months as Venezuelans who once held out hope for political change leave the country.
Brazil and Colombia have proposed measures such as new elections and power-sharing arrangements, which were swiftly rejected by both the opposition and the government. Questions remain as to how committed these countries are to pushing for a transition of power. In the next few months, both countries can benefit from playing the middle ground by maintaining discussions with both the United States and the Maduro regime while pressing Maduro to respect the will of the Venezuelan people. They can leverage their relatively stable relations with Venezuela to push for credible negotiations in ways that other countries cannot. While negotiations alone will not guarantee a peaceful transition of power, they are a necessary element, even when dealing with an actor with a record of using them to suit his own interests.
The United States, Canada, and the EU
The United States, Canada, and the EU have been more vocal in their rejection of the government-announced election results. As the main imposers of sanctions on Venezuela, these countries should lead the coordination of sanctions policy in the months leading up to January’s presidential inauguration, and, absent a transition of power, in the period following. This requires a clear consensus on sanctions objectives and timeframes. If one country communicates specific parameters for sanctions relief, the same parameters should be reflected in corresponding sanctions regimes—though this coordination can be challenging at times given how the legal framework for US sanctions differs from that of its partners.
Sanctions can be useful in advancing certain policy objectives, but can be ineffective or harm local populations when misused or improperly implemented. Sanctions are more successful when they involve multilateral coordination, establish concrete objectives, and clearly state the conditions required for sanctions relief. Between now and January, the United States and its allies should develop consistent messaging on conditioning sanctions relief and/or new sanctions with progress on negotiated political agreements. The first step in this process involves clarifying objectives and timeframes for meeting specific conditions. The international community must find creative ways to incentivize the Maduro government to remain at the negotiating table and involve the Venezuelan opposition in defining a path forward.
Both domestic and international coordination on sanctions is critical. While the United States has already sanctioned more than 140 individuals connected with the Maduro government or who are otherwise contributing to the Venezuelan crisis, additional individual sanctions, particularly on economic and military elites, could help increase targeted pressure on government allies to reconsider their commitments to another six years under Maduro. The United States announced new sanctions on sixteen individuals last week, including some involved in ratifying the government-announced election results or issuing an arrest warrant for González. However, unilateral sanctions have limited effectiveness and should be paired with coordinated efforts to balance pressure and incentives. For example, the United States and regional allies should identify Maduro affiliates who are more open to dialogue and discuss ways to either lower the costs of defection or incentivize them to encourage change from within their circles.
Domestic coordination on messaging is key for presenting a coherent foreign policy strategy that balances pressure and incentives. While bipartisan action is hard to come by in the current US political environment, consensus across party lines is still possible. Senators Marco Rubio (R-FL), Tim Kaine (D-VA), Rick Scott (R-FL), Dick Durbin (D-IL), Bill Cassidy (R-LA), Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Representatives Mario Díaz-Balart (R-FL), María Elvira Salazar (R-FL), and Carlos Giménez (R-FL) condemned the Maduro government for committing fraud and recognized González as the winner of the election, stating that “this is not about political ideology, this is about defending the will of the Venezuelan people.” Future joint statements should emphasize the common goal of upholding Venezuelans’ right to self-determination, regardless of which party sits in the White House come January. The United States and other regional host countries must address the needs of millions of displaced Venezuelans who remain in political and economic limbo, which will require both bipartisan and international coordination.
The United States, the EU, Canada, Brazil, and Colombia must account for their respective abilities to leverage political and economic incentives to encourage favorable actions from the Venezuelan government. Meanwhile, Chile, Peru, Panama, and other countries that have called for transparency in Venezuela’s electoral process should continue to push for dialogue and an end to the government-led repression. Maintaining space for dialogue through sustained coordination and support for the Venezuelan people is the best chance that democratic leaders have to help move toward a transition of power and greater stability in Venezuela.
Lucie Kneip is a program assistant at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, where she contributes to the center’s work on Venezuela and Colombia.
Further reading
Mon, Sep 9, 2024
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Image: Hundreds of Venezuelans living in Madrid have gathered this afternoon in Madrid in front of the Congress of Deputies to demand that Edmundo González be elected president of Venezuela. The Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado has called on Venezuelans living in Spain to gather in the Plaza de las Cortes in Madrid, in front of Congress, to "demand" the mandate of the July 28 elections in Venezuela so that "the entire world" recognizes Edmundo González as president-elect. The protest coincides on the same day that the Spanish Congress is debating the initiative of the Popular Party that seeks for the Government of Pedro Sanchez to recognize González as the winner and new president of the country. David Canales / SOPA Images.