Russia and Belarus conducted large-scale military exercises in mid-September as the Kremlin sought to put on a show of strength close to NATO’s eastern flank. The Zapad-2025 exercises were part of broader Russian efforts to test NATO’s political and military reactions while sowing fear and uncertainty among the European population.
Although billed as defensive, the joint military exercises in Belarus sparked considerable alarm among the country’s European neighbors. The presence of Russian troops close to the Belarusian border with NATO and the European Union inevitably drew comparisons with the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which had been preceded by Russian military drills in Belarus. In an apparent bid to menace nearby NATO member states, this year’s exercises featured a simulated nuclear strike. Russian and Belarusian troops also trained with drones and robotic systems.
These military drills took place against a backdrop of mounting European disquiet over Russia’s apparent readiness to escalate its hybrid war against the West. Ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine first began in 2014, the Kremlin has faced accusations of engaging in a wide variety of hostile acts across Europe, ranging from cyberattacks and disinformation to sabotage and assassinations. This campaign gained further momentum following the full-scale Russian invasion of February 2022. It may now be entering a dangerous new phase.
In recent weeks, the Kremlin has launched drones into Polish and Romanian airspace, while also sending warplanes into Estonian airspace above the Baltic Sea. On September 22, major airports in Norway and Denmark were forced to suspend operations due to suspicious drone activity. While the source of this sophisticated drone disruption has not yet been clarified, Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Russian involvement cannot be ruled out.
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Russia’s recent actions reflect the ongoing integration of drones into the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare playbook as Moscow looks to raise the stakes in its confrontation with the democratic world. Since US President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, Moscow has been cheered by his efforts to reduce support for Ukraine and limit the US role in European security. Russia now appears intent on exploiting growing divides within the Western camp and intimidating Europe with thinly-veiled threats of possible drone bombardment.
European leaders must take the Russian drone threat seriously. Since 2022, the Kremlin has made drones one of the key components of Russia’s overall military strategy. Domestic production of bomber drones has increased dramatically over the past year in particular, making it possible for Russia to conduct mass bombing raids on Ukrainian cities featuring as many as 800 drones in a single night.
In addition to increased numbers, Russian drones are also undergoing significant upgrades. The most common form of kamikaze drone used by the Russian army is based on the Iranian Shahed model, but recent versions are significantly larger, faster, and more explosive. Russia has also implemented improved navigation and control systems, making the current generation of bomber drones far deadlier than their predecessors.
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At this stage, it appears that Russia is looking to assess NATO’s readiness to defend itself and is unlikely to be preparing any large-scale attacks. However, there is no time to waste. European countries cannot wait until Russia goes even further before addressing the urgent security concerns raised by the Kremlin’s drone diplomacy.
Crucially, this means learning from Ukraine’s unrivaled experience in defending against large-scale Russian drone attacks. Only Ukraine has the know-how to develop layered air defenses featuring ground-based missile systems, mobile gun crews, fighter jets, propeller planes, helicopters, and a rapidly expanding fleet of interceptor drones. Likewise, only Ukraine can offer practical tips on effective jamming and other electronic warfare strategies. These lessons make Ukraine an indispensable security partner for Europe.
NATO member states need to collectively establish realistic and unambiguous rules of engagement for cross-border drone and fighter jet incursions that provide maximum clarity for all countries, including Russia. The alliance’s somewhat improvised Eastern Sentry initiative along the NATO frontier with Russia should be expanded and given permanent status, with Ukraine fully integrated as a strategic partner. Europe should prioritize the production of cost-effective anti-drone technologies and invest in Ukrainian defense sector companies that are already producing key elements such as interceptor drones and electronic warfare tools.
Individual European countries also need to make sure civilian populations are protected against potential Russian drone attacks. This means checking existing bomb shelters. In many cases, it will no doubt be necessary to conduct comprehensive renovation works. By addressing this issue now rather than waiting for the next Russian escalation, governments can prevent panic and demonstrate that the security situation is under control.
Putin has clearly been encouraged by Trump’s efforts to downgrade America’s involvement in transatlantic security and feels emboldened to escalate his own hybrid war against Europe. For now, the Kremlin dictator appears to be focused on probing Europe’s responses and fueling insecurity across the continent. Looking ahead, his strategic objective is to split the Euro-Atlantic alliance and reduce support for Ukraine to minimal levels. If he succeeds, the threat to Europe will reach a new level entirely and the cost of stopping Russia will only rise.
Maksym Beznosiuk is a strategic policy specialist whose work focuses on Russia’s evolving military and hybrid strategy, EU-Ukraine cooperation, and Ukraine’s reconstruction.
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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.
The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values, and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia, and Central Asia in the East.
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Image: Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the Security Council at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia. September 22, 2025. (Sputnik/Alexander Kazakov/Pool via REUTERS)
