Europeans are increasingly speaking of Ukraine as a shield protecting the continent from Russian aggression. This recognition is certainly justified, but it also carries a risk. Amid all the talk of Ukraine’s growing military strength, there is a danger that this could encourage complacency over the country’s ability to bear the current security burden indefinitely.
Changing attitudes toward Ukraine were on display at the recent GLOBSEC Forum in Prague. Since 2022, the international debate has been dominated by fears of possible Ukrainian defeat and concerns over Europe’s ability to resist Russian aggression. This year, however, it has become clear that Ukraine is now widely viewed as Europe’s strongest military power and is seen as one of the key pillars of the continent’s security architecture.
Many forum participants seemed particularly impressed by Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities and the country’s rapidly expanding defense tech sector. This is not surprising. After all, Ukraine has effectively created a new domestic defense industry since 2022, with 60 percent of all weapons now domestically produced.
At the same time, Ukrainians recognize the limitations of the country’s current capabilities. Many of the weapons systems that have been developed since 2022 still require further refinements. Ukraine also often lacks the ability to mass produce sophisticated weapons or sustain stable military supply chains. These challenges are not always reflected in the positive assessments that are becoming commonplace among Kyiv’s European partners.
The growing optimism on display in Europe is also due to the changing dynamics of Russia’s invasion. In recent months, Putin’s army has struggled to advance despite suffering record battlefield losses. Meanwhile, Ukrainian mid-range strikes behind the front lines are now undermining Russian logistics, with longer range attacks inside Russia causing significant disruption to the energy industry that fuel’s Putin’s war machine.
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There is now a danger that people may grow too comfortable with the idea of Ukraine as Europe’s shield, with the current wave of admiration becoming a substitute for action. In recent conversations with European officials and security experts, it is striking that many believe Europe still has approximately three years to prepare for a possible direct confrontation with Russia.
Efforts are already underway across Europe to boost defense spending, rebuild military industries, and address rearmament on a scale not witnessed for decades. European support for Ukraine has also increased dramatically since the return of Donald Trump to the White House in early 2025. These are undoubtedly positive developments, but there remains little sense of urgency.
While discussions continue in European capitals over long-term shifts in security posture, Ukrainian cities face the threat of massive bombardment on a daily basis. This is why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent letter to Trump and the US Congress addressing critical shortages in air defense munitions is so significant. Ukraine is openly signaling to the country’s partners that current levels of support are no longer sufficient.
Despite the escalating threat to Ukraine’s civilian population, it is becoming increasingly routine to hear arguments that Ukraine no longer needs certain categories of Western weapons because it has developed domestic alternatives. For some, this is a politically convenient narrative that makes it possible to avoid difficult decisions. In reality, however, Ukraine’s improvised arsenal of drones and missiles is not enough to win the war.
Ukraine still needs the advanced weapons that only its Western partners can provide. This means modern air defense systems, cruise and ballistic missiles, and fighter jets, along with the ability to integrate all these systems into a security architecture capable of deterring Russia. While progress has been made in this direction, Europe is still not doing enough.
In order to defeat Russia, Ukraine needs greater access to advanced technologies, components, and industrial ecosystems. Many of the capabilities that will define the next phase of the war are in areas where Europe remains globally competitive and can significantly increase the effectiveness of the Ukrainian military. One example is vision-based navigation technology, which makes drones less vulnerable to jamming. There are many other sectors where Europe could be doing much more to strengthen Ukraine.
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Rather than seeing Ukraine’s expanding defense industry as a reason to reduce support, Europe should view it as an opportunity for deeper cooperation. Thankfully, many of Ukraine’s partners already do so, and are actively intensifying collaboration. Others should now follow suit.
Since 2022, Ukraine has demonstrated extraordinary ingenuity in adapting civilian technologies for military purposes and scaling innovation under wartime conditions. But innovation alone is not enough. Winning a prolonged industrial war requires access to funding, technologies, supply chains, production capacity, and strategic partnerships. Europe is already helping in all these areas but could do much more.
More pressure on Russia is also needed. Instead, there are concerns that the global energy crisis sparked by the US war with Iran may lead to a weakening of sanctions measures targeting the Kremlin. The recent UK decision to ease some energy sector sanctions set a dangerous precedent. It is vital to prevent this from becoming a trend.
European support for Ukraine must reflect the country’s status as Europe’s shield. Now is not the time to limit assistance, postpone difficult decisions, or assume that Ukraine will be able to compensate for every shortfall through its own ingenuity. With Putin’s invasion faltering, this is the moment to expand military aid, accelerate joint defense production, transfer advanced air defense and long range strike capabilities, and deepen technological cooperation in the areas that will determine the outcome of the war.
The choice now facing Europe is increasingly clear. It can continue preparing for a potential future confrontation with the Kremlin, or it can do everything to help ensure that Russia is stopped in Ukraine today. This second option will require far greater urgency, resources, and political will than has so far been evident, but failure to act decisively will create much greater security challenges for Europe in the coming years.
Olena Tregub is Executive Director of the Independent Anti-Corruption Commission (NAKO), a member of the Anti-Corruption Council under the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.
The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values, and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia, and Central Asia in the East.
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Image: An artilleryman of the 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fires a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer 2S22 Bohdana toward Russian positions, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, on a frontline in Donetsk region, Ukraine. May 27, 2026. (REUTERS/Anatolii Stepanov)