The recent launch of Russian drones into Polish airspace generated global headlines, but the incident was far from unprecedented. In reality, it was the latest escalation in a far larger Kremlin campaign that aims to test NATO’s resolve and intimidate European leaders. In addition to regular incursions into NATO airspace, Russia is also accused of disrupting thousands of European flights through the widespread use of GPS jamming. Unless the West responds decisively, Russia will continue to escalate.
For the Russians, gray zone acts of aggression such as the recent drone raid on Poland offer an opportunity to gauge how far they can go without provoking a major military response. Each new operation is a probe. If Russian drones can cross into Poland unchecked, the next stage may be for missiles to begin “accidentally” striking NATO territory.
As none of the drones launched at Poland last week appear to have been armed, it is reasonable to conclude that Putin does not currently seek to conduct a conventional attack on NATO. Instead, the operation served a number of other objectives. Crucially, it allowed the Kremlin to test NATO’s red lines and demonstrate that the alliance is hesitant to act, even when its borders are so clearly penetrated. This strikes at the credibility of NATO’s core commitment to collective security.
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The appearance of Russian drones in the skies above Poland set off alarm bells in a number of European capitals. This trend toward greater insecurity can help drive the radicalization of European politics, which often means increased support for Kremlin-friendly parties on both the far-left and far-right of the political spectrum.
Fears over a mounting Russian threat could also divert attention and resources away from Ukraine, with Europeans growing less inclined to support the Ukrainian war effort and more concerned about their own security. In the aftermath of the recent drone incident, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned of growing anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Poland fueled by Moscow, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested that Russia may be seeking to prevent the delivery of additional air defenses to Ukraine ahead of the winter season.
With the Western response to Russia’s drone raid still taking shape, it remains too early to draw any definitive conclusions. However, the mixed initial reaction from Western leaders is unlikely to have deterred the Kremlin. Rather than projecting unity and purpose, US President Donald Trump appeared to contradict many of his NATO allies by claiming that the large-scale Russian incursion into Polish airspace could have been “a mistake.”
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Russia’s drone escalation has revived the long-running debate over the possibility of a NATO-backed no-fly zone of some kind in Ukraine. Following the Kremlin’s aerial attack, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski became the latest figure to publicly voice his support for allied efforts to close the skies over Ukraine. Poland’s top diplomat argued that protecting Ukrainian airspace from Russian drone and missile attacks would also serve as the first line of defense for the rest of Europe.
This concept has been under discussion since the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion but has so far failed to gain serious traction due to widespread Western fears of escalation. Skeptics have noted that any NATO jets deployed to Ukraine would immediately become targets for the Russians, creating the potential for a direct military confrontation between the alliance and the Kremlin. A single downed NATO aircraft over Ukraine or a destroyed anti-aircraft system on Russian territory could plunge Europe into a major crisis with unpredictable outcomes for international security.
Europe can minimize the risks associated with a no-fly zone by ruling out the deployment of fighter jet squadrons in Ukrainian airspace and focusing instead on boosting the number of ground-based air defense systems covering western Ukraine. Many systems could be positioned across the border and need not actually enter Ukraine at all.
Participating countries could also increase their support for Ukraine’s own layered air defenses, including Kyiv’s growing interceptor drone capabilities. This approach would strengthen the security of European airspace without the necessity of sending NATO pilots into combat.
Enhanced air defenses would not entirely neutralize the Russian threat but could succeed in creating significantly safer conditions for millions of Ukrainians along with citizens in neighboring EU states. While Moscow would inevitably protest over any increased European involvement, it would be hard for the Kremlin to argue convincingly that intercepting Russian drones and missiles constitutes an act of international aggression.
Recent events offer a clear precedent for a greater European role in Ukraine’s air defenses. Jets from multiple NATO countries shot down a number of the Russian drones that entered Polish airspace last week without sparking an escalation. There is therefore no reason to believe that expanding the no-fly zone into western Ukraine would suddenly spark World War III.
Ukraine also has an important role to play in efforts to strengthen Europe’s air shield. Following the recent Russian incursion into Polish airspace, European countries now recognize that they need to urgently study Ukraine’s unrivaled experience of defending against Russian missiles and drones. This process is already underway, with Poland looking to implement lessons learned by the Ukrainians over the past three and half years of regular Russian bombardment. Other countries will no doubt soon be joining the Poles in seeking the advice of Ukrainian air defense crews. Looking ahead, Ukraine’s unique air defense expertise must be fully integrated into NATO and EU security planning.
It should now be abundantly clear that Putin will continue to escalate until he is stopped. The Kremlin dictator’s imperial ambitions extend far beyond the conquest of Ukraine. To achieve his goals, he seeks to discredit NATO and divide Europe. Acting decisively through smart air defense, leveraging Ukrainian expertise, and deepening regional cooperation can help safeguard European security. If Western leaders continue to hesitate, Putin will grow bolder still and the cost of stopping Russia will only rise.
Alina Zubkovych is Head of the Nordic Ukraine Forum and Academic Director at the Kyiv School of Economics.
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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.
The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values, and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia, and Central Asia in the East.
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Image: German Patriot air defence system units are seen at the military base, during German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius' visit, near Zamosc, Poland July 3, 2023. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel
