WASHINGTON—The ongoing conflict in Iran has focused global attention on surging energy prices caused by supply-chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. As devastating as these oil and gas constraints are to both the Middle East and global markets, the war also poses a threat to another critical resource that keeps the Gulf afloat: water. Several limited attacks on desalination plants in both Iran and Bahrain in the past two weeks offer a glimpse at the potential danger if this infrastructure were intentionally and systematically targeted. Either in this war or a future Middle Eastern conflict, water resources could prove an attractive target for anyone seeking to cause harm and destabilize communities.
On March 7 and 8, desalination plants in Iran and Bahrain were targeted in the ongoing conflict. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused the United States of attacking a desalination plant in Iran, while Bahrain’s interior ministry said that its plant was struck by an Iranian drone. The damage to the Bahraini desalination plant reportedly affected water supply in as many as thirty villages. Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have also reported missile-related damage to desalination plants during the conflict. Though it is unclear if Iran deliberately targeted all of these plants, this infrastructure is critical to Gulf states and within a short striking distance of Iran. It could become a tempting target for Tehran if the conflict persists.
Countries in the Middle East face arid conditions and frequent water shortages, often relying on desalination infrastructure to turn saltwater into freshwater. Without such technology, which removes salt through reverse osmosis, roughly 100 million individuals in the Middle East would have no regular access to drinking water. There are around five thousand desalination plants across the Middle East, more than four hundred of which are in the Gulf. And a smaller number of plants are responsible for a large share of the output. More than 90 percent of the Gulf’s desalinated water, for example, comes from just fifty-six plants. This concentration and proximity to Iran makes the Gulf’s desalination infrastructure particularly vulnerable as the exchange of missiles and drones intensifies.
In Kuwait and Bahrain, desalinated drinking water accounts for around 90 percent of the country’s supply, along with roughly 86 percent in Oman, 80 percent in Israel, about 70 percent in Saudi Arabia, and 42 percent for the UAE.
A deliberate series of strikes on desalination plants could deepen regional instability and trigger further humanitarian disasters or migration crises in the Gulf.
If Iran successfully destroyed the Gulf’s desalination infrastructure, then the consequences could be devastating. The effects of a significant strike would likely ripple across cities, disrupting water supplies to local and state-operated public facilities, businesses, houses, hotels, and agricultural operations. This infrastructure is also integrated into national electrical grids, meaning damage could cascade into city-wide power outages or necessitate calls for complete evacuations.
Though not as dependent on desalinization plants as some Gulf countries, Iran, too, is experiencing a water crisis. The country is currently in its fifth year of drought, and strikes on Iran’s currently operating plants would likely cause far-reaching pain. This would be made worse by Iran’s constraints on repairing and building additional desalination plants due to international sanctions and rising energy costs.
Moreover, the Gulf’s reliance on desalinated water is only protected to grow. The accelerating effects of climate change are increasing the value of this water source as shallow groundwater supplies—the only renewable water source in the Gulf region—dry up. Saudi Arabia, for example, has announced plans to invest around $80 billion in building additional plants in the coming years.
To date, international humanitarian and water laws haven’t safeguarded civilian water infrastructure, as demonstrated by attacks on targets vital to water supply in Ukraine and Gaza. The Gulf itself has suffered attacks on desalination plants in the past. During its invasion in 1990 of Kuwait, for example, Iraq targeted desalinations plants. It took Kuwait years for the country to restore the infrastructure. More recently, the Houthis in Yemen attacked plants in Saudi Arabia in 2022. The toll is often quick and the consequence potentially long: US intelligence reports have indicated that striking water infrastructure and critical equipment in Gulf states could cause them to lose the majority of their drinking water in days and face national water crises lasting months.
Since 2006, Gulf countries have invested at least $53.4 billion in developing desalination infrastructure. They have also created contingency plans to defend the plants with pipeline networks, massive storage reservoirs, and protective barriers to shield intake valves. Currently, the strategic resiliency capacities of Saudi Arabia and the UAE are significantly greater than Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait.
The consequences of a full-scale water war would extend beyond the Gulf, as the region supplies 40 percent of the world’s desalinated water. As the Gulf’s population grows, continues to rapidly urbanize, and consumes increasing volumes of water, a natural resource crisis there could lead to water scarcity in communities throughout the Middle East and beyond. Studies indicate that by 2030, there could be a 40 percent global shortfall in freshwater resources while demand increases by more than 20 percent, making desalination technology all the more essential. Many threats to water supplies need to be considered, including climate change, pollution, agricultural production, and ecosystem degradation. But safeguarding water supplies also requires investing in the defense of water infrastructure and technologies. Perhaps most urgent are anti-drone capabilities.