KYIV—Two ill-conceived external actions over the past few years have fundamentally changed how European nations view their security. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and, more recently, US President Donald Trump’s threats to take Greenland have led many Europeans to two conclusions. First, Russia is the primary threat to Europe’s security. Second, Europeans can no longer count on the United States to defend them.
In response, European states are now urgently strengthening their militaries and incorporating Ukraine into their defenses, accelerating the speed at which US influence on the continent declines.
Europe’s wake-up call
With its initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and its full-fledged war on Ukraine since 2022, Russia surprised Europe and dramatically shattered the norms of international relations that had helped prevent great-power war since World War II. Since 2022, the Ukrainians have stopped the Russian invasion and demonstrated their ability—with generous Western help—to defend their country against their aggressive neighbor.
But the Russian threat persists. The Kremlin continues to test NATO defenses by sending drones into Poland and other NATO nations. Ukraine’s military intelligence takes seriously the near-term threat of a Russian attack on a Baltic state. This would test NATO’s commitment and will to defend every inch of every member state.
This threat comes as the current US administration is casting doubt on that will through its words and actions. In addition to belligerent talk about using military force to take over Greenland, the Trump administration launched a major attack on Iran without consulting NATO allies. It has denigrated NATO’s capabilities and plans to reduce US forces in Europe. On Ukraine, it has cut military and financial assistance to Kyiv, taken the Russian side in Ukraine-Russia-US negotiations to end Russia’s war on Ukraine, lifted sanctions on Russian oil sales, and voted with Russia in the United Nations.
At a security conference panel in Kyiv last week, the moderator asked me if Europeans could count on the United States to honor its NATO treaty commitment and defend its allies if Russia attacked. I said “yes,” but the fact that the question was asked shows the level of European concern.
European leaders are responding. NATO allies are making good on their commitments to dramatically increase resources devoted to defense. This past year, military spending by European NATO members rose faster than at any time since 1953, according to a new report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. And this increased spending its translating into new capabilities. The Germans in particular are expanding their ground forces, upgrading their military equipment, and increasing their military support to Ukraine. Berlin’s plan is to grow its forces to 460,000 combat-ready troops by the middle of the next decade, while Poland plans to increase its armed forces to 500,000 .
Stronger support for Ukraine
In late April, the European Union (EU) finalized a ninety-billion-euro, interest-free loan to Ukraine, to be paid back only when Russia pays reparations, thus ensuring that Kyiv has the financial resources to resist Russia as a sovereign nation for the next two years. The EU has promised another €100 billion. In addition, $300 billion in immobilized Russian assets remain to be tapped in European and other banks. Ukrainian EU accession is moving forward, with Brussels reportedly preparing a set of pre-entry benefits for Kyiv to advance the membership process. The main obstacle to enhanced EU support for Ukraine, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, was overwhelmingly rejected by Hungarian voters on April 12.
Meanwhile, the United Kingdom and France, the two European nuclear-armed states, are leading a thirty-nation effort to assemble a “coalition of the willing” that has pledged to deploy military forces on the ground in Ukraine to ensure the Russians do not reinvade Ukraine following a cease-fire. From Norway and the Netherlands to Italy and Romania, European nations are increasing the supply of weapons to Ukraine and are entering into co-production agreements for advanced drone and counter-drone systems.
Thanks to European support and to their own successes, Ukrainians are showing renewed self-confidence. They got through the coldest winter in memory, weathering brutal Russian attacks on heat, light, electricity and water. Kyiv’s finances have stabilized. On the battlefield, the Ukrainians last month took back more territory from the Russians than the Russians gained. In March, Ukrainian forces fired more long-range missiles and drones into Russia than the Russians fired into Ukraine. The Ukrainian deep strikes have been successful at crippling Russian oil export facilities, including the port of Primorsk on the Black Sea this past week. Ukrainian drones and the full network required to employ them are second to none and are in demand around the world. The Ukrainians have provided Gulf-state nations with these capabilities, demonstrating Ukraine’s value, while the Russians reportedly have provided Iran with military intelligence on US force deployments.
Ukrainians want the war to end. They’re tired. But they will continue to fight to defend their sovereignty. In talking with Ukrainians, I’ve found that they do not put much faith in US-sponsored negotiations with the Russians. If the positive trends on the battlefield continue, and if US intelligence support and European-financed weapons keep flowing, some expect the Russians, suffering from serious economic problems, will have to come to the negotiating table in the fall.