WASHINGTON—In the March 5 edition of Al-Naba, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham’s (ISIS’s) global newsletter, the group portrayed the ongoing US-Israeli war against Iran as a “divinely sanctioned” war among the disbelievers on both sides. This should surprise no one, as ISIS has long condemned Iranian Shia Muslims as following a “rejectionist” brand of Islam and labeled the United States and Israel as “infidels.”
What might be more unexpected, however, is that ISIS seems poised to exploit this moment of regional instability to its advantage. Specifically, ISIS appears eager to attract new followers, inspire attacks, and consolidate territory amid the chaos caused by the Iran war and by the security situations in Syria and Afghanistan.
Targeting the West
ISIS views itself as the protector of Sunni Islam, and its adherents have cheered the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei even as they condemn the US and Israeli strikes against Iran. ISIS’s preferred outcome in the Iran conflict would be the downfall of both sides, but it’s not waiting for that outcome. It is instead seizing the initiative by expanding its messaging directed at its followers in the West.
The Islamic State manages a number of regional affiliates under a single umbrella, and these affiliates often share resources such as personnel, training, and funding, enabling the movement of people and expertise across borders. Part of this larger umbrella includes the group’s messaging operations, of which Al-Naba is just one output. Through the internet, including on mainstream social media sites such as TikTok, ISIS distributes messages targeting Western youth to gain traction beyond the Middle East and South Asia.
In particular, ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K), the Afghanistan-based affiliate, has demonstrated its skill at reaching youth online, including developing a growing network of teenagers in Europe, some of whom were involved in a 2024 plot to conduct simultaneous attacks across several cities in Central Europe. Should a European nation, for example, become involved in the conflict against Iran, then an ISIS-inspired cell or individual might use that as an excuse to conduct an attack there.
Concerningly, there have already been two ISIS-inspired attacks in the United States since the Iran conflict began. Although investigations into both events are still ongoing, preliminary details suggest that, in one of the attacks, the young men used ISIS’s online how-to guides to build improvised explosive devices. The two teens who staged an attack outside of the home of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani on March 7 had accessed ISIS materials online in the weeks prior to the attack, according to investigators. Some analysts have suggested that they had communication with, and coaching from, ISIS leadership overseas. In the second attack, a known ISIS supporter killed a military officer at Old Dominion University in Virginia. The attacker had previously been convicted of attempting to provide material support to ISIS. The timing of these attacks suggests that ISIS supporters may be seeking to take advantage of the global distraction created by the war, targeting locations and events that they perceive as “infidel.”
Gaining territory in South Asia
ISIS-K is perhaps the Islamic State’s most capable affiliate, and it has demonstrated its ability to conduct and inspire attacks far from Afghanistan over the past three years. A confluence of factors, when combined with the global distraction caused by the Iran conflict, raise the possibility of an ISIS-K attack against Western interests in the medium term.
But ISIS-K is not only focused on its efforts abroad. In addition to the Iran war, the group stands to benefit from the crisis emerging between Afghanistan and Pakistan. In late February, Afghanistan and Pakistan escalated the long-simmering conflict against each other, with Pakistan accusing Afghanistan of harboring the Pakistani Taliban. Much of the fighting so far has concentrated on the ungoverned border areas between Afghanistan and the tribal areas of northern Pakistan.
Historically, ISIS-K has struggled to hold territory in this region due to pressure from the Afghan Taliban. But with the Taliban preoccupied with the fight against Pakistan, the conflict may provide ISIS-K with an opening it could exploit to seize and hold territory in northern Afghanistan. Securing territory can, in turn, provide the group with space to plot further attacks and messaging.
Regrouping in Syria
Similarly, ISIS has leveraged the devolving security situation to gain territory in Syria. Since fall 2025, there has been a notable uptick in the number of ISIS attacks inside Syria, and the group recently declared jihad against President Ahmad al-Sharaa. ISIS perceives al-Sharaa as a puppet of the United States and not sufficiently committed to Sunni Islam. The recent uptick in attacks by ISIS emanating from the Syrian desert indicates that it is likely regrouping in that area, where the Syrian government struggles to maintain security and control.
In addition to increased freedom of movement in Syria, ISIS is also benefiting from an influx of fighters who recently escaped from prison camps in northern Syria. Earlier this year, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) came under pressure from Damascus to relinquish control of the territory it held to the central government. The SDF, which fought alongside the United States in the fight against ISIS, had for years guarded the Al-Hol prison camp, which held tens of thousands of ISIS fighters and their families. When the SDF retreated in January in the face of a Syrian government offensive, the camps were left unguarded, leading to a major prison break. US intelligence agencies estimate that as many as 20,000 people, including family members of ISIS fighters and the group’s affiliates, are at large. These ISIS-linked individuals, many of whom are combat veterans from the Syrian civil war, are expected to increase ISIS’s experienced manpower. Regional reporting indicates that at least some of these individuals are Afghan nationals. If these individuals return to Afghanistan, then ISIS-K could leverage their fighting experience for operations or training.