Based on how prominently Venezuela’s vast oil reserves featured in President Donald Trump’s Saturday press conference about the military strike that captured Nicolás Maduro, oil does appear to have played an important role in shaping the administration’s will to advance the audacious mission. Yet it would be misguided to claim that gaining access to supplies of heavy crude oil was the impetus for the operation.
Venezuelan oil supply is unlikely to move global energy markets meaningfully in the near term. For now, the country remains under an oil embargo imposed by the Trump administration. Even under optimistic assumptions, it will take years to rehabilitate the country’s energy sector and achieve a sizable increase in oil exports. Saturday’s operation didn’t hinge on nuanced assessments of crude grades or the US refining sector’s appetite for heavy supply. Energy was the enabler of a much bolder manifestation of Trump’s foreign policy as laid out in the administration’s recently released National Security Strategy.
The United States is now practicing an enhanced version of the two-hundred-year-old Monroe Doctrine. What Trump described Saturday as the “Donroe” doctrine seeks a Western Hemisphere free from hostile external influence and aligned with US political and economic interests. This makes political realignment in Latin America relevant to the president’s vision for the region. Trump also is likely keen on aligning his removal of Maduro and approach to Venezuela with US domestic interests. That includes not saddling American taxpayers with the price tag of another conflict, as well as stemming the recent high levels of migration to the United States from Venezuela. It also includes reducing the violence caused by cartels trafficking illegal narcotics and making whole US companies whose assets Venezuela expropriated under Maduro’s predecessor Hugo Chávez. Here, oil is the enabler that may help pay for the execution of the policy, not the ultimate prize.
In his address from Florida on Saturday, Trump correctly sized up the state of Venezuela’s oil economy: For a country with the largest oil reserves in the world, production is a “total bust” and the full potential of those assets has not been realized. Under Maduro’s rule, production declined from around 2.5 million barrels per day to less than one million barrels a day. If there is an orderly transition of power in Venezuela, then US companies will benefit from the political transformation.
At the same time, the United States is the world’s number one oil and gas producer. It is energy secure. This explains why Trump emphasized that revitalizing Venezuela’s oil patch will make the people of Venezuela—not the United States—“rich, independent, and safe.” Consider the example of neighboring Guyana, where the public is benefiting from oil extraction by US companies. Ensuring Venezuela stands strong alongside the United States will help achieve the president’s domestic policy goals and lessen the influence of Russia, China, and Iran in the Western Hemisphere, all while avoiding economic costs to the American public.
The policy that the Trump administration pursued on Saturday offers insight into the president’s decision-making and the impulses driving his administration. For those countries at odds with the United States, it’s a clear signal that Trump will take decisive action when US interests can be advanced without burdening the American public.
