Event recap
On February 10, the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center hosted an event on political, security, and economic developments in the Horn of Africa, focusing on the region’s fragility, geopolitical rivalries, and ongoing conflicts.
Rama Yade, senior director of the Africa Center, opened the event touching on the importance of purposely “dedicating time and efforts to the Horn of Africa and its forgotten genocides, its fragile cease-fires, and its threatening tensions.” The conversation was moderated by EJ Hogendoorn, senior fellow at the Africa Center and former adviser to the US special envoy to Sudan. The event advanced the work of the Africa Center’s Sudan Task Force and featured key insights on the Horn’s shifting dynamics from a panel of experts:
- Magdi Amin, adjunct faculty at Johns Hopkins University and managing partner of African Renaissance Ventures
- Laurent Ploch Blanchard, specialist in African affairs at the Congressional Research Service
- Alan Boswell, project director for the Horn of Africa at the International Crisis Group
- Kholood Khair, founder and director of Confluence Advisory
- Michael Woldemariam, associate professor at the University of Maryland
In his opening remarks, Woldemariam outlined major security and political crises affecting the Horn. With regional trends continuing in a worrisome direction, he described Ethiopia’s internal conflicts as particularly concerning, citing “intractable insurgencies in both Oromia and Amhara.” He warned that the Pretoria peace deal that brought an end to fighting between the Ethiopian government forces and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front is in “a difficult state.” Meanwhile, he cautioned that Eritrea and Djibouti, while appearing stable, face uncertainty due to “highly personalized political systems with aging leaders” and that Somalia, is “at a bit of an inflection point” with an ongoing transition to a smaller African Union peacekeeping mission while still battling Al-Shabaab.
As a Sudanese analyst, Khair zoomed in on Sudan’s war, warning that the country is fragmenting into multiple armed factions, making diplomatic solutions more difficult. On external influences, she described Sudan as a “political football” caught between Middle Eastern power struggles, particularly those over the Red Sea and Nile waters.
Blanchard analyzed US policy in the region, noting that long-standing security interests, such as freedom of navigation through the Red Sea and counterterrorism operations, continue to drive engagement. However, shifting global priorities and congressional pressure could reshape Washington’s role. “The United States has maintained large-scale humanitarian investments in the region,” she explained, but with foreign aid in limbo due to policy changes from the new administration, “those investments are now somewhat in question.”
Amin addressed economic and demographic trends, explaining that while conflict dominates headlines, the region still offers promising investment opportunities. “East Africa is the fastest-growing part of Africa, with 5.7 percent growth expected,” he said. He highlighted the power of the region’s young and dynamic population to fuel economic growth as well as examples of economic reforms in the region, specifically in Ethiopia, noting that “despite regional tensions, the broader region continues to grow,” driven by Africa’s expanding workforce and rapid digitalization.
On the impact of the US foreign aid freeze, he warned, “When the US is out of the game, those who are trying to advocate for a democratic, stable, and economically sound future are substantially weakened.” He expressed concern that other actors—some with less interest in good governance and stability—would step in to fill the gap.
Boswell argued that the Red Sea is a major theater of global competition, explaining that “we’ve seen an almost free-for-all among external actors trying to establish influence in the Horn.” He pointed out that “Russia does not yet have a Red Sea port, while the US, China, and France all do in Djibouti.” Meanwhile, middle powers such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Iran, and Turkey “are jockeying for influence,” often supporting rival factions in conflicts like Sudan.
He warned that tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea could escalate into a full-scale war, calling the situation “the sleeping giant of all the crises.” If such a conflict breaks out, “it could merge with the war in Sudan and trigger proxy wars among Middle Eastern and global powers,” potentially destabilizing the entire Red Sea corridor, he said.
The speakers agreed that resolving conflicts in the Horn requires more than just case-by-case peace talks: What is needed is a regional approach that includes both African and Middle Eastern actors and a willingness among partners to include Sudan and the Horn of Africa in conversations outside of traditional, Africa-focused conversations in diplomatic circles. Acknowledging shifting diplomatic priorities in Washington, Blanchard noted that Congress has consistently pressured the US government to stay engaged, including calls to appoint a new special envoy for Sudan.
Amin closed with a hopeful outlook, pointing to the resilience and innovation of young people in the region. “Africa as a whole only gets 1 percent of global venture funding,” he noted. “If we shift from an aid-driven model to investment and local entrepreneurship, we can empower the region to chart its own future.”
Note: Some Atlantic Council work funded by the US government has been paused as a result of the Trump administration’s Stop Work Orders issued under the Executive Order “Reevaluating and Realigning US Foreign Aid.”
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Event description
On Monday, February 10, at 9:00 a.m. ET, the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center hosts a discussion on recent developments in Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Djibouti.
After nearly two years of fighting and genocidal acts committed in Sudan, continued instability in Ethiopia, and questions about territorial integrity in Somalia, civilians in these countries remain caught in the middle of conflict, politics, and regional tension.
In fits and starts, regional leaders have attempted to resolve the fighting and political instability in the region, but lasting solutions remain elusive. With outside actors from the Middle East and beyond at times mediating and others supporting, arming, and resupplying different factions, the potential for continued violence and human rights tragedies remains high.
Following US President Donald Trump’s inauguration, this event will focus on the latest developments in Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, and Sudan and their wider impact on the Horn of Africa region. Speakers will explore the current trajectory of instability across the region, including the genocide in Sudan (recently recognized as such by the previous US administration), strategic shifts under the pressure of rival powers, and how the international community can ensure that this important region remains high on the foreign policy agenda.
The Africa Center has closely followed the evolving political climate in the Horn of Africa with the goal of acknowledging the region’s geostrategic importance at the crossroads between the Arab and African worlds. In 2018, the Africa Center created a Sudan Task Force, which has produced leading research and hosted public and private briefings on the situation in the country.
This virtual discussion will be broadcast on YouTube, X, Facebook, and LinkedIn. To join us, please complete the registration form.
featuring
Magdi Amin
Adjunct Faculty, John Hopkins University;
Managing Partner, African Renaissance Ventures, LLC
Lauren Ploch Blanchard
Specialist in African Affairs
Congressional Research Service
Alan Boswell
Project Director for the Horn of Africa
International Crisis Group
Kholood Khair
Founder and Director
Confluence Advisory
Michael Woldemariam
Associate Professor, University of Maryland;
Senior Fellow, Center for International & Security Studies at the University of Maryland
moderated by

The Africa Center works to promote dynamic geopolitical partnerships with African states and to redirect US and European policy priorities toward strengthening security and bolstering economic growth and prosperity on the continent.