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EconoGraphics

Oct 30, 2018

SWIFTly Disconnecting Iran

By Ole Moehr

With the snapback of significant US sanctions against Iran fast approaching on November 5th, speculation is mounting over how the Trump Administration will enforce the sanctions, and how its European allies might attempt to bypass them. The previous EconoGraphic outlined how a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) may facilitate trade between European small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and Iran after US sanctions go back into effect. This edition of the EconoGraphic provides a primer on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) and explains why sanctioning the financial messaging service would likely cause more harm than good.

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Oct 9, 2018

JCPOA in Peril – EU SPV to the Rescue?

By Ole Moehr

The European Union’s (EU) foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, recently announced that the EU will set-up a special purpose vehicle (SPV) “to facilitate legitimate financial transactions with Iran and allow European companies to continue to trade with Iran.” In response, our visiting senior fellow, Samantha Sultoon, argued that this SPV will not provide a reliable path around US sanctions, and may undermine the effectiveness of US and EU sanctions in the long-run. This edition of the EconoGraphic explains how the SPV would work in practice and outlines why this mechanism is unlikely to offer Iran enough economic upside to keep the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) alive.

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EconoGraphics

Sep 17, 2018

Turkish Outbreak: Risk of Emerging Market Contagion?

By Christina Gay and Ole Moehr

With the strengthening of the US dollar in the wake of continued interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve and brewing pressures in a number of emerging market (EM), portfolio flows into EM countries slowed from $13.7 billion in July to just $2.2 billion in August. Companies and banks in both Argentina and Turkey borrowed heavily in dollar denominated debt while interest rates were low and are now faced with mounting debt burdens, which, if not backed by sufficient reserves puts them at risk for default if investors lose confidence. The Turkish lira has fallen over 40 percent in 2018. Its sharp decline in August raised concern of contagion to other markets, as the Indonesian rupiah, the South African rand, and the Indian rupee have also come under pressure. This edition of the Econographic compares situation in Turkey with the Asian financial crisis in 1997, analyzes root causes of the current pressures in Turkey, and assesses the broader implications for EM economies.

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Ole Moehr is a nonresident fellow and consultant with the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center. Previously, he served as the GeoEconomics Center’s associate director. In Moehr’s current capacity, he contributes to the center’s future of money work and conducts research on global finance, growth, and trade. As lead editor of the center’s Global QE Tracker, which visualizes central banks’ complex responses to the different economic shocks in the post-COVID world, Moehr helps deliver the Atlantic Council’s timely take on important issues pertaining to the global economy. Moehr’s project portfolio includes work on global monetary policy, central bank digital currencies, global value chains, the European Union’s economic architecture, and economic sanctions. His analysis and commentary have been featured in Axios, the New York Times, and Euronews, among others.

Prior to joining the Council, Moehr served as a Brent Scowcroft Award fellow at the Aspen Institute. He holds a master’s degree in international economics from the George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs and a bachelor’s degree in global governance and public policy from the University of Passau in Germany.