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Inflection Points

Jan 11, 2020

Abu Dhabi dispatch: The Soleimani earthquake and coming aftershocks

By Frederick Kempe

The conventional wisdom – underpinned by visuals from Iran – is that the US drone strike reinforced hardliners and shifted the internal Iranian dynamics from protests against the regime to angry demonstrations against the United States. Far harder to measure is the longer-term impact of Soleimani’s absence on the country’s revolutionary effectiveness and structure.

Conflict
Iran

New Atlanticist

Jan 8, 2020

Iran’s missiles may have avoided the worst outcome

By Thomas S. Warrick

If there had been significant US casualties, the world would have awoken to the dawn of a regional war, because the Trump administration would have been compelled to attack the launch sites in Iran—and probably other targets in Iran, also. If the present news holds, the situation is slightly less dangerous, if still perilous.

Conflict
Geopolitics & Energy Security

New Atlanticist

Jan 8, 2020

Washington and Tehran can step back – if they want to

By William F. Wechsler

After the January 8 Iranian missile attacks on Iraq, a successful tactical de-escalation requires both that the Iranian leadership intends for its military actions not to be escalatory and that the Trump administration perceives those actions as they were intended. In the absence of direct communications between the United States and Iran, however, the potential for misunderstanding and thus the risk of miscalculation remains high.

Conflict
Geopolitics & Energy Security

New Atlanticist

Dec 6, 2019

Détente in the Gulf?

By Kirsten Fontenrose

The National Security Council’s policy process aimed at designating the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization may accidentally contribute to a resolution of the Gulf rift.

Politics & Diplomacy
Terrorism

IranSource

Dec 5, 2019

Assessing US policy toward Iran

By Kenneth Katzman

The effectiveness of any US policy needs to be measured against the primary objective it is seeking to accomplish. A policy might be changing some conditions in a target country, but not others. The conditions that are being changed by US policy might be material to US interests, or they might not. The key question […]

Economic Sanctions
Iran

In the News

Nov 26, 2019

Khoury quoted in Al-Monitor on the possibility of US-Saudi negotiations with Houthis

By Atlantic Council

Security & Defense
The Gulf

In the News

Nov 15, 2019

Cohen in Forbes: Investors Evaluating Aramco IPO As Iran Claims Discovery Of New Oil Field

By Atlantic Council

Economy & Business
Geopolitics & Energy Security

MENASource

Nov 7, 2019

Saudi-backed Yemeni government and separatists sign power-sharing agreement

By MENASource

On Tuesday, November 5, the Hadi government signed a power-sharing agreement with southern separatists in Riyadh. The separatists and Hadi-led Yemen Government are backed by the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, specifically by the United Arab Emirates. Infighting between them further fractured the civil war in August when the separatists seized Aden from Saudi-led forces. It […]

Peacekeeping and Peacebuilding
Politics & Diplomacy

In the News

Nov 4, 2019

Handler in Nextgov: The zero-day war? How cyber is reshaping the future of the most combustible conflicts

By Atlantic Council

Israeli-Saudi security cooperation quietly incubated over mutual intolerance toward an expansionist Iran is blossoming into a gradually open relationship, with cyber at its heart. Bonds such as these, forged behind closed doors, provide options for de-escalatory approaches to regional conflict.

Cybersecurity
Israel

In the News

Nov 4, 2019

Katz quoted in TRT World on the potential sale of Russian S-400s to Saudi Arabia

By Atlantic Council

Missile Defense
Russia
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