A US framework for assessing risk in critical mineral supply chains
Minerals and metals are foundational to modern technology—from smartphones and solar panels to satellites and semiconductors. Critical minerals include high-volume commodities like nickel and copper, niche elements such as tungsten and indium, and rare earths vital for magnets and alloys. These materials move through complex global supply chains, shaped by private and public-sector actors responding to market forces, profit incentives, and national security concerns.
The United States increasingly relies on these materials but cannot meet all its mineral needs domestically. This dependency creates strategic vulnerabilities, especially as global supply chains are often dominated by China. China controls much of the midstream processing, invests heavily in mining abroad, and owns key transshipment infrastructure. As US-China relations grow more competitive, mineral dependency becomes a critical leverage point.
To mitigate these risks, the United States must identify and address its most significant supply chain vulnerabilities. Building new mines, processing infrastructure, and manufacturing capacity requires substantial time and investment. Secure and resilient supply chains will also depend on partnerships with trusted international allies—an increasingly challenging task in today’s fractured trade environment. Geopolitical tension, extreme weather, and choke-point disruptions pose ongoing risks.
Effective supply chains must meet three criteria: adequate and affordable supply, resilience against shocks, and minimal reliance on adversaries. While the United States has identified critical minerals, each differs in supply chain complexity, substitutes, and risks. Understanding these nuances is vital for smart policy, reliable partnerships, and sustainable investment. This brief explores minerals with dual economic and national security uses and proposes principles to assess and address supply chain risks.
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The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security works to develop sustainable, nonpartisan strategies to address the most important security challenges facing the United States and the world.
The Global Energy Center develops and promotes pragmatic and nonpartisan policy solutions designed to advance global energy security, enhance economic opportunity, and accelerate pathways to net-zero emissions.
Image: A lichen-covered rock with ore containing copper, cobalt, and nickel at the Andover Mine in Western Australia. Source: Unsplash/Paul-Alain Hunt.