Transatlantic Security Initiative Assistant Director Robbie Gramer writes for War on the Rocks on ten fiction books that provide insight into future conflict scenarios:
During a speech at West Point in 2011, then-Secretary of Defense Robert Gates offered a sobering account of the United States’ track record on predicting future conflicts: “When it comes to predicting the nature and location of our next military engagements, since Vietnam, our record has been perfect. We have never once gotten it right.”
Failing to predict future conflicts is nothing new — it is no doubt a systemic headache of leaders throughout history. Many have gotten it wrong, but a select few, such as Otto von Bismarck have gotten it right. But that begs the question: is predicting future conflicts an art, a science, or simply a lucky bulls-eye from a volley of shots in the dark?