Rafik Hariri Center Senior Fellow Frederic C. Hof is quoted by Al Arabiya on the prospects of the Geneva II peace conference resulting in the ouster of Bashar al-Assad:
But as far as the central goal of Geneva II is concerned, i.e. to kick start a political transition in Syria “the near-term prospects are zero. Absolutely zero,” says Fred Hof, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Rafiq Hariri Center for the Middle East. In a press briefing, Hof attributes his pessimism to “the Assad regime publicly rejecting the very premise of Geneva II: a political transition.” “Assad himself, a day or two ago, all but announced his reelection campaign for the presidency of Syria.”
Hof, who served as Special advisor to U.S. President Barack Obama on Syria met Assad on more than one occasion before the events of March 2011. He defines his calculation right now as “based on the military situation on the ground, and that any talk of him leaving power is nonsense.”