On March 1, Scowcroft director Matthew Kroenig’s comments on the future of arms proliferations were featured in The Wall Street Journal. Following Moscow’s suspension of the New START agreement – one of the last operating arms-control treaties between Russia and the US – the two powers are in talks to negotiate a replacement by the time the current treaty expires in February 2026. International arms control was already under stress before the Ukraine conflict, but has only been exacerbated as Russia’s aggression erodes the nuclear taboo and China continues to expand its nuclear-weapons program. In light of these developments, Kroenig conveys little hope that the US congress will agree to extend the New START treaty past 2026.

The future of arms control looks pretty bleak… as combined Russian and Chinese [nuclear weapons] stocks grow, the US must stick by its traditional nuclear approach… that means any post-New START agreements limiting deployed nuclear warheads are unlikely.

Matthew Kroenig

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