On July 14, Asialink published an article by Asia Security Initiative non-resident senior fellow Adam Schwarz and Asia Group Advisors’ Country Representative in Vietnam Arthur Do entitled “Vietnam is on the Road to Post-COVID-19 Economic Recovery But it’s Likely to be a Rocky Ride”. The article assesses the degree to which recovery of Vietnam’s highly trade-dependent economy will hinge on the recovery of global demand. It also highlights the reforms needed at home to improve infrastructure, logistics networks, and labor force quality, while reducing red tape and corruption. Finally, the two look at the risk of further retaliatory trade actions by the United States in light of Vietnam’s ballooning trade surplus with the United States.
Vietnam’s bigger short-term challenge is its reliance on the rest of the world to drive its domestic growth.