Middle East Programs Commentary & Analysis

Our blogs feature thoughtful reflections and opinions on current events in the Middle East & North Africa.

Through our Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East and Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, the Atlantic Council works with allies and partners in Europe and the wider Middle East to protect US interests, build peace and security, and unlock the human potential of the region.

Meet our blogs

All commentary & analysis

MENASource

Mar 3, 2026

Trump wants Iranians to ‘take back their country’ from the regime. Can they?

By Alan Pino

To succeed in overthrowing the Iranian regime, an uprising would likely require a unifying leader, an effective organization, and the support of whatever remains of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Conflict Democratic Transitions

MENASource

Mar 1, 2026

The risk of unknown unknowns for global markets amid war in Iran

By Khalid Azim

Market reaction will likely begin with Asia’s opening sessions on Monday morning. One early indicator will be the behavior of the US dollar.

Energy Markets & Governance Iran

MENASource

Feb 27, 2026

Regime change in Iran? Here’s why the US should avoid the temptation.

By Jennifer Gavito and Bianca Rosen

Launching a large-scale conflict aimed at regime change in Iran would likely create more problems than it would solve for the United States.

Conflict Crisis Management

MENASource

Feb 20, 2026

Iran’s regime is suffering from strategic vertigo. Its next misstep may be its last.

By Michael Rozenblat

Iranian leaders continue to see their major decisions backfire. Will they choose obstinance again in ongoing talks with the US?

Conflict Iran

MENASource

Feb 20, 2026

Syria is not Libya, but it could become one if the world looks away

By Kurt Davis Jr.

There are lessons from Libya's fragmentation and collapse that can be applied now as Syria sits at a similar inflection point.

Conflict Libya

MENASource

Feb 18, 2026

Israel needs a fundamental shift in its foreign policy

By Amir Asmar

Israel's international standing has been tarnished by its conduct in Gaza, but the apparent end of the war presents a unique moment for reexamination.

Conflict International Norms

MENASource

Feb 15, 2026

Six reasons why Trump should choose the military option in Iran

By Michael Rozenblat

The benefits of fundamentally changing—or even eliminating—the Islamic Republic could outweigh the risks if the alternative is an emboldened, undeterred Iran.

Conflict Iran

Podcast

Feb 11, 2026

Narco noir: Drugs, gangs and mercenaries in Latin America

By Alia Brahimi

In Season 2, Episode 14 of the Guns for Hire podcast, host Alia Brahimi is joined by Dr Vanda Felbab-Brown, a renowned expert on non-state armed groups and organised crime. They begin by discussing the escalation of gang violence in Haiti over the last year, despite the arrival of the American PMC, Vectus Global, which is led by the Blackwater founder Erik Prince. Vanda points out that a recent air campaign weaponizing off-the-shelf drones was intended to decapitate the gangs but, while hundreds of Haitians have been killed, none of them have been significant gang leaders. They go on to explore why governments in the region allow and coopt street militias, the bunkering of fuel by colectivos in Venezuela, Hizballah’s continuing narcotics operations across Latin America, the IRGC’s role in drug trafficking, and how the regime in Iran ends.

Americas Caribbean

MENASource

Feb 5, 2026

How Iran’s water bankruptcy seeped into the protest movement

By Nik Kowsar

Many of Iran's protest hubs overlap with areas where severe water shortages in recent years have made life increasingly difficult for people.

Climate Change & Climate Action Energy & Environment

MENASource

Feb 5, 2026

How Israeli technology could help solve Iran’s water crisis

By Joseph Epstein and Dalga Khatinoglu

Iran faces a stark choice: find ways to access the world's most advanced water technologies, or continue toward a crisis.

Climate Change & Climate Action Energy & Environment