Scowcroft Center Commentary, Analysis, & Reports

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New Atlanticist

Jun 23, 2010

Is Russia Resetting? The Limits of a Petro-State

By Robert Manning

Don’t look now, but Russian President Dimitry Medvedev’s visits this week to Silicon Valley and Washington appear part of a wider Russian rethinking of its predicament.  The operative word is thinking. That Medvedev would like to create a Russian Silicon Valley suggests a belated realization that Russia, the Petro-state, is not a recipe for a […]

New Atlanticist

Jun 23, 2010

A Possibly Dangerous Summer, Continued

By Harlan Ullman

The U.S. political system was designed by the best minds of the 18th century. But today, the issues and crises of the 21st century are profoundly more complex, numerous and interrelated. To be sure, this system has changed with the times. However, when faced with an unprecedented multitude of simultaneous challenges and crises, most with […]

New Atlanticist

Jun 23, 2010

Afghanistan: Time for Unified Policy

By James Joyner

General Stanley McChrystal’s widely-publicized comments deriding senior Obama administration officials and their roles in the Afghanistan strategy have, as he himself has acknowledged, "compromised the mission."   He’s meeting with said team this morning and could well be fired.  Regardless, it’s time to come up with a unified and coherent policy.

New Atlanticist

Jun 22, 2010

Turkey Bets on East Over West

By Arnaud de Borchgrave

Geopolitical tectonic plates began grinding menacingly five years ago when Turkey embarked on negotiations for membership in the European Union but it didn’t take long for Ankara to conclude that EU was play acting. There was little appetite for adding 70 million Turkish Muslims (80 million by the end of a projected 10-year negotiation) to […]

European Union International Organizations

New Atlanticist

Jun 22, 2010

McChrystal’s Loose Lips May Sink Afghan Ship

By James Joyner

General Stanley McChrystal, commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, has been ordered home by an angry president after several intemperate remarks made in a Rolling Stone interview. The piece, "The Runaway General," originally scheduled to debut Friday, has been rushed online.   Phil Stewart and Adam Entous, reporting for Reuters, summarize the most controversial bits: […]

New Atlanticist

Jun 22, 2010

Russia’s Foreign Policy: What’s Next?

By Nikolas Gvosdev

When President Barack Obama welcomes President Dmitry Medvedev to the White House on June 24th, he should ask the Russian president one blunt question: What do you want? In the last several weeks, I’ve attended several meetings on and heard numerous commentaries about the U.S.-Russia relationship, and one consistent theme has resounded: what are the […]

New Atlanticist

Jun 21, 2010

China’s Renminbi Gambit

By James Joyner

Over the weekend, China announced just ahead of the Toronto G20 summit that it would "enhance the RMB exchange rate flexibility" in response to" the recent economic situation and financial market developments at home and abroad, and the balance of payments (BOP) situation" at home. What does this mean?

New Atlanticist

Jun 21, 2010

Gaza Flotilla Incident: Implications for Middle East Peace

By James Cook

As Israel prepares to conduct its official inquiry into the recent Israeli Defense Force (IDF) raid on the flotilla attempting to breach the blockade against Gaza, it is important to understand how this tragic incident affects U.S. national security interests in the Middle East.  The episode highlights the difficulty in balancing Israel’s legitimate security requirements […]

New Atlanticist

Jun 21, 2010

Blowback in Afghanistan?

By Don Snow

Whenever official Washington, be it the White House, the Pentagon, or the military, describe what is happening in Afghanistan, it is always discussed in terms of “progress.” This creates the mental construct that whatever is going on must be forward moving–we hardly ever think that progress can be negative. So, when things go well in […]

New Atlanticist

Jun 18, 2010

Borut Grgic: Azerbaijan as a Source for Natural Gas

By Borut Grgic

Borut Grgic, nonresident senior fellow at Atlantic Council, was recently interviewed by the Azeri Press Agency of Azerbaijan. The interview transcript is presented below. “Turkey is already over dependent on Russia, so Ankara is keen to receive gas from Azerbaijan” – Azerbaijan and Turkey have recently signed a package of agreements on gas supplies to […]

New Atlanticist

Jun 18, 2010

When Smart Power Meets Dumb Bureaucracies

By Derek Reveron

Prior to coming to office, the Obama team emphasized the importance of smart power. For example, now-Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Michelle Flournoy argued for establishing “a robust interagency process for strategy, planning, and budgeting that would enable the United States to assess long-term threats and opportunities, set clear priorities, allocate and manage risk, develop […]

New Atlanticist

Jun 17, 2010

Turkey: Trusted Eurasian Energy Partner?

By Borut Grgic

Can Europe trust Turkey when it comes to energy security any more than we can trust Ukraine? Turkey is becoming a major energy hub, with pipelines from Russia and the Caspian basin crisscrossing the country. The two notable projects are the Blue Stream gas line, which brings Russian gas to Turkey, and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil […]

New Atlanticist

Jun 16, 2010

Paralysis in AfPak

By Harlan Ullman

In Afghanistan, the United States and its allies have dealt the cards and made their bets lying as if in suspended animation while events on the ground unfold. Given the Obama administration’s ambiguous statements over next year’s force reductions, taken as a lack of U.S. commitment in Kabul and Islamabad, last week’s announcement of a […]

New Atlanticist

Jun 16, 2010

NATO a Permanent Alliance: Outlook for the Future

By Stanley Sloan

At the end of the day, there are two basic requirements for NATO to be perceived as important enough for the member states to ensure its survival. Put most simply, the United States must be convinced that political and military cooperation with the European allies makes an important net contribution to US interests. On the […]

New Atlanticist

Jun 15, 2010

Afghanistan Effort Falling on its Face

By James Joyner

In the midst of testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee defending the progress of the mission in Afghanistan, General David Petraeus fainted.  Thankfully, he appears to be fine.  Alas, the symbolism was powerful. The 57-year-old chief of Central Command apparently was suffering from a combination of a brutal schedule, too little food and drink, […]

New Atlanticist

Jun 15, 2010

NATO a Permanent Alliance: Today’s Challenges

By Stanley Sloan

If we acknowledge that nothing in life lasts forever, the transatlantic bargain between the United States, Canada, and its European allies appears as close to a permanent international alliance as has ever been fashioned by sovereign independent states. Its appearance of permanence is based on the fact that it is founded on shared values and […]

New Atlanticist

Jun 14, 2010

Pakistan: Friend or Foe?

By James Joyner

One longstanding question is which side the Pakistan military — particularly the ISI — is on in our war with the Taliban.   A new report gives strong credence to the long-held suspicion that they are not only tacitly backing the enemy but actively supporting them "as clear as the sun in the sky." Jeremy Page […]

New Atlanticist

Jun 14, 2010

NATO a Permanent Alliance: Surviving the Bush Years

By Stanley Sloan

On the other side of the pond, the unilateralist character of US foreign and defense policy under George W. Bush led some Europeans to favor using integration in the European Union to “balance” US power in the international system. This multi-polar temptation, like the US unilateral temptation, threatened trans-Atlantic cooperation and therefore international stability. The […]

New Atlanticist

Jun 14, 2010

Afghanistan Mineral Riches: Beware the Hype

By James Joyner

News that "United States has discovered nearly $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan, far beyond any previously known reserves and enough to fundamentally alter the Afghan economy and perhaps the Afghan war itself" should be taken with several doses of salt. James Risen of the NYT broke the story, which has the security […]

New Atlanticist

Jun 11, 2010

NATO a Permanent Alliance: Surviving Cold War’s End

By Stanley Sloan

The Soviet threat provided NATO’s main rationale and explanation until the Warsaw Pact disbanded and the Soviet Union disintegrated.  What is it about the transatlantic bargain that has ensured its survival beyond its founding raison d’être? In 1989, with the fall of the Berlin Wall, the  the allies were left to assert in the early […]

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