Scowcroft Center Commentary, Analysis, & Reports

Transnistria Remains the Only Really “Frozen” Conflict

By Vladimir Socor

in 2008, Russia “unfroze” the conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia through outright war and occupation of these Georgian territories. In the latter part of 2009, the United States and Russia each accelerated negotiations on the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, with Washington and Moscow each pressing for some kind of quick results.

Bombing Al Qaeda

By Don Snow

The contest against Al Qaeda (the “war on terror”) has moved to Yemen, where a franchise of the original organization, Al Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has set up shop and is organizing and dispatching terrorist missions against the United States (Ft. Hood, the Christmas underwear bomber) and apparently Great Britain

Bangladesh’s India Charm Offensive

By Zafar Sobhan

American Security Attitudes Driving Policy

By Derek Reveron

The  results of the latest Pew-CFR quadrennial survey of public and elite attitudes on foreign policy are startling not only for the gap between public and elite attitudes on international security, but also for the types of concerns held by the average American. Simply, Americans feel scared, wary, and alone.

India and Pakistan: Deadlines for Dialogue

By Suhasini Haidar

As a slew of new informal initiatives try to build a "roadmap" for a new India-Pakistan dialogue, it may be time to look at some of the circumstances in which dialogue has been derailed in the past — and hunt clues for the future.

Giving Futurism a Bad Name

By Robert Manning

When a major publisher publishes a book by an author whose book jacket describes him as “a renowned expert in geopolitics and forecasting,” one might be expected to take it seriously.  Indeed, George Friedman’s The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century was dutifully reviewed by mainstream reviewers as such when Doubleday released […]

Afghanistan Polling Difficult But Not Impossible

By James Joyner

A recent ABC-BBC-ARD survey of Afghanistan has both given hopes to those who support NATO’s mission in Afghanistan and created a backlash among doubters. ABC News polling director Gary Langer begins his summary of the findings with the good news: Hopes for a brighter future have soared in Afghanistan, bolstered by a broad rally in […]

Connecting the Dots is Not the Prolem

By Harlan Ullman

In the wake of the attempted Christmas bombing of a Northwest Airlines flight over Detroit, once again criticism has focused on failure to connect the poor, overworked dots. Yet, however understandable this reaction, Rome is burning in a metaphoric sense and we are attacking dots. We must wake up. Consider several stunning — indeed staggering […]

The Future of Iran’s Green Movement

By Nazenin Ansari and Jonathan Paris

The deadline for Iran to accept a U.N.-brokered deal on its controversial nuclear program expired on December 31, proving yet again that the policy of modifying the behavior of the Islamic Republic is not working. While Washington frets over what the Obama Administration should do next, legitimate power is tilting away from the central government […]

South Asia in 2010: A Make or Break Year for Afghanistan

By Jawad Joya

2010 will most likely define the character of the next decade for U.S. foreign policy in Central and South Asia. For Afghanistan and Pakistan, the year will foreshadow what awaits them in the new decade – fatal chaos, expensive stability (with some hope) or a blend of both.

The Coming Pentagon Boost: Obama Strong on War Funding

By Damon Wilson

For all the talk around town of increasing pressure on defense spending in a time of austerity, high unemployment and eye-popping deficits, the Pentagon budget is poised to reach the historic level of $700 billion – a 4.8 % increase over Obama’s FY2010 request (and a 125% increase since 2001).