On June 10, without a deal, the United States will place a 5 percent tariff on all Mexican products, with the potential to escalate by 5 percent each month until October, reaching a potential maximum of 25 percent. The US tariffs, levied in response to President Trump’s demand that Mexico stop all migration, would have immediate effects on US consumers and businesses. What are the potential effects of US tariffs at the state and national levels?

This new Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center infographic distills some of the economic ramifications that would accompany tariffs.

Read More

One word will define 2019 for Latin America (and the world): uncertainty.
Three new presidents in the region’s largest countries have jumpstarted their agendas. Juan Guaidó has assumed the interim presidency in Venezuela.
The USMCA awaits next steps in Congress. China continues to increase its regional economic footprint. And Central American migration continues, as push factors remain.

But one trend is certain: what happens in the Americas will increasingly have global ramifications.

Check out what the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center is watching for 2019 and where we will lean in.

pdfRead the Publication (PDF)

Read More

Inauthentic activity originating from South Asian Facebook accounts artificially inflated the number of Facebook “likes” on social media content for and about the Government of the State of Oaxaca in México. The main beneficiary of the seemingly inauthentic activity is Alejandro Murat Hinojosa, Governor of the State of Oaxaca, in southern Mexico. Similar reactions can be seen on his official state government page and the Guelaguetza page — an account intended to promote the Guelaguetza festival, an annual traditional indigenous festival celebrated in the City of Oaxaca every July.

Read the full analysis on Medium.
Un número inusual de cuentas provenientes del sureste asiático están reaccionando a publicaciones hechas en las páginas oficiales de Facebook de autoridades e instituciones mexicanas. El principal beneficiario de esta actividad aparentemente inauténtica es Alejandro Murat Hinojosa, gobernador del estado de Oaxaca en el sur de México. Estas reacciones sospechosas se pueden encontrar en la página oficial de Murat del gobierno estatal y en la página de Guelaguetza, creada para promover el festival tradicional indígena de Guelaguetza, que se celebra en la ciudad de Oaxaca cada mes de julio.

Read the full analysis on FGV.

On October 28, Brazilians elected Jair Messias Bolsonaro as the next president of the republic, following a hyper-polarized and contentious election. The impetus, in part, for the frustration: Brazilians’ anger with rampant corruption.

In this Spotlight, we ask: What are the five most important areas Brazil’s new administration must focus on to effectively fight corruption?

10 questions for 2019: New presidents, new policies, new opportunities...What will be the biggest shock of the year?

JOIN US AND VOTE! How do you think some of the biggest questions of 2019 will unfold? Will President Bolsonaro find success with his economic plan? What is the fate of the Maduro regime this year? Will Latin America see more investment than ever from China? Will Latin artists take the music world by storm?
New Venezuela Infographic
pdfRead the Publication (PDF)

January 10 is both the start of Nicolás Maduro’s second term in office as well as a day to reinforce the lack of democratic conditions that led to his declaring victory and what is at stake. Today, one day earlier, the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center releases infographic that depict the illegitimacy of this new term, Maduro’s first-term results, and options for the road ahead.

Although the 2018 electoral event was not recognized by the international community, Maduro has been unwavering in his quest for power. His authoritarianism and the schemes enriching high-level government officials and members of the military persist despite a ramp-up of international sanctions and growing internal and external pressure.

Read More

Read the Interactive Report

In this Spotlight, we ask: What are the four of the top action items President Bolsonaro might prioritize in his first one hundred days in office.

In one of the most consequential presidential elections in the country’s recent history, Brazilians elected Jair Messias Bolsonaro their next president on October 28, 2018, after two highly contested rounds of voting that left Brazilians deeply divided.

In this Spotlight, we ask: What are four of the top issues President Jair Bolsonaro might prioritize in his first one hundred days in office?

Russian escalation at the Kerch Strait ended in cannon fire and the capture of three Ukrainian military vessels, leaving at least six Ukrainian sailors wounded. This escalation was a continuation of increasing Russian aggression in the Sea of Azov and around the Kerch Strait, where Ukrainian shipping and maritime activity has been routinely harassed.

On November 25, 2018, two Ukrainian gunboats and an accompanying tug boat were denied entry into the Sea of Azov while attempting transfer from Odesa to Mariupol. The Russian Federation considers the Crimean peninsula its territory since it illegally annexed and occupied the peninsula in 2014. This stance led Russia to grow increasingly aggressive in the Sea of Azov, although it is considered internal waters of both countries following a 2003 agreement.

Read the full analysis on Medium.