As the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak continues to accelerate its spread worldwide, the international community is facing a global crisis with public health, geopolitical, and economic repercussions. Go beyond the headlines to access the Atlantic Council’s deep expertise in policy areas impacted by this growing global emergency
Tue, Jul 7, 2020
What world post-COVID-19? Three scenarios
This paper is a preliminary look at the geopolitical implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and sketches three scenarios for the possible direction of the global system post-COVID-19.
Barry Pavel (Senior Vice President and Director, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council) speaks at the Atlantic Council event, Reports Launch: Shaping the Post-COVID-19 World Together.
The coronavirus pandemic presents a substantial shock to the postwar order, established by the United States and its allies, which for the past 75 years has promoted liberal democratic values, an open global economy, and formal institutional bodies backed by powerful democratic states.
This framework is a preliminary look at the geopolitical implications of a crisis that is still unfolding. It begins by outlining health and economic prospects of the coronavirus pandemic, as well as implications of the United States’ global leadership in weathering the storm.
Scenarios for a Post-COVID world
Tue, Jul 7, 2020
Scenario 1: Great accelerator downwards
In the gloomiest of three post-COVID-19 scenarios, the United States, Europe, and China all struggle to recover despite major fiscal and monetary efforts. A global depression unlike anything seen since the 1930s grips the world as countries embrace isolationism and open conflict looms between the US and a China-Russia alliance.
Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series by Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke
Tue, Jul 7, 2020
Scenario 2: China first
The second of our preliminary post-COVID scenarios features an ascendant China, as it deploys its “Belts and Roads” assistance to own large portions of infrastructure in Asia, Africa and Latin America. A new cold war looms as the U.S. and Europe draw closer to counter a growing China-Russia alliance.
Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series by Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke
Tue, Jul 7, 2020
Scenario 3: New Renaissance
The most hopeful of our three preliminary post-COVID scenarios sees the world drawing together in increased cooperation. A new commitment to better governance leads to the creation of international bodies to counter global threats such as disease, conflict, and climate. Improved international cooperation leads to a V-shaped recovery as major economies resume growth.
Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series by Mathew Burrows, Peter Engelke
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