Post-Covid-19
Post-Covid-19As the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak continues to accelerate its spread worldwide, the international community is facing a global crisis with public health, geopolitical, and economic repercussions. Go beyond the headlines to access the Atlantic Council’s deep expertise in policy areas impacted by this growing global emergency
Thu, Apr 23, 2020
What world post-COVID-19? Three scenarios
This paper is a preliminary look at the geopolitical implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and sketches three scenarios for the possible direction of the global system post-COVID-19.
The coronavirus pandemic presents a substantial shock to the postwar order, established by the United States and its allies, which for the past 75 years has promoted liberal democratic values, an open global economy, and formal institutional bodies backed by powerful democratic states.
This framework is a preliminary look at the geopolitical implications of a crisis that is still unfolding. It begins by outlining health and economic prospects of the coronavirus pandemic, as well as implications of the United States’ global leadership in weathering the storm.
Prospects for the COVID-19 pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic is not just a global health crisis. It could spark global recession, while undermining globalism, cooperation and multilateralism, ushering in a renewed era of authoritarianism, isolation and open conflict between global powers.
US global leadership at risk
The post-COVID world represent a step-change in world order, pushing countries toward isolation and setting the stage for open conflict. The US could still change that outcome.
Scenarios for a Post-COVID world
Thu, Apr 23, 2020
Scenario 1: Great accelerator downwards
In the gloomiest of three post-COVID-19 scenarios, the United States, Europe, and China all struggle to recover despite major fiscal and monetary efforts. A global depression unlike anything seen since the 1930s grips the world as countries embrace isolationism and open conflict looms between the US and a China-Russia alliance.
Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series by Mathew J. Burrows, Peter Engelke
Thu, Apr 23, 2020
Scenario 2: China first
The second of our preliminary post-COVID scenarios features an ascendant China, as it deploys its “Belts and Roads” assistance to own large portions of infrastructure in Asia, Africa and Latin America. A new cold war looms as the U.S. and Europe draw closer to counter a growing China-Russia alliance.
Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series by Mathew J. Burrows, Peter Engelke
Thu, Apr 23, 2020
Scenario 3: New Renaissance
The most hopeful of our three preliminary post-COVID scenarios sees the world drawing together in increased cooperation. A new commitment to better governance leads to the creation of international bodies to counter global threats such as disease, conflict, and climate. Improved international cooperation leads to a V-shaped recovery as major economies resume growth.
Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series by Mathew J. Burrows, Peter Engelke
Have your say
We want to hear from you. Participate in the survey below to let us know which scenarios you think are most likely.
The COVID-19 crisis around the world
United States
The pandemic threatens to exacerbate America’s troubling turn toward isolationism and trip its antagonism toward China into open conflict. Can the country find its way back to globalization and multilateralism?
Middle East
The pandemic strikes a Middle East that is already laboring under overlapping political, economic, and humanitarian crises. With hydrocarbon prices slumping and tourism at a standstill, the region may lack the resources to jumpstart a recovery.
Latin America
The dual threats of pandemic and global recession pose particular dangers for a region overly reliant on the commodities market and has weak public health systems. Will US isolationism lead to increased Chinese influence?
India and South Asia
South Asian mitigation efforts have been confused and sometimes contradictory. What’s next for a region that is both the world’s largest producer of generic drugs and hosts woefully inadequate public health systems?
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