Iranian President Hassan Rouhani warned on May 6 that if the United States were to leave the deal it would face “regret of historic proportions.” The United Kingdom, France, and Germany have publicly urged Trump not to abandon the JCPOA.
Here’s where the signatories stand on the JCPOA.
The United States’ European and Asian allies would strenuously complain and seek ways to protect oil imports and other trade and investment with Iran if Trump refuses to renew sanctions waivers by May 12. But many companies would be unlikely to risk the hefty fines that violating US sanctions could entail. Already, major multinational firms are putting Iran plans on hold.
Fast forward to 2014: Russia annexes Crimea in a sudden manifestation of its increasingly aggressive military posture. A month later, Capt. Jon Gudnason, commander of the Keflavik Airbase for the last thirty years, got a phone call from Washington. In a brief conversation, US Navy officials told him they would like to beef the base back up a bit. Gudnason said sure, they were welcome.
Pulling the United States out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear deal with Iran, would be a “huge mistake if [Trump] expects to have credibility when he sits at the table with Kim,” said Sen. Edward Markey (D-MA). “We must uphold our deals,” he added.
Enter Donald J. Trump, who has followed Obama’s strategy, only with no particular feeling or much interest in the matter.
Syria, Russia, and Iran blamed Israel for the attack on T-4.
Israel neither confirmed nor denied that it carried out the strikes.
Time will tell whether Sargysan’s resignation on April 23 was a genuine step away from one party rule or little more than a sacrificial offering to the protesters. Armenia’s steps toward democracy are likely to be tortuous and fraught.
Apart from the destruction it would wreak, an Iran-Israeli war would consume Syria, bring the United States back to the Middle East in a big way, and force Russia to choose between the two states against its own preferences. In other words, this war could wipe out all of Russia’s recent gains from its intervention in Syria.