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July 6, 2018



HEADLINES:
Trade War: It’s (retaliatory) tariffs week. Early in the morning on July 6, the United States imposed 25% tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods in response to alleged intellectual property theft and forced technology transfer. China immediately retaliated with an equal tariff, targeting soybeans and cars. The United States could later expand tariffs to a second list of Chinese imports, totaling $16 billion, which China is expected to match dollar-for-dollar. President Trump has additionally threatened a third list of $200 billion in Chinese goods with a 10% tariff.
Meanwhile, on July 1, Canada imposed tariffs on approximately $12.5 billion in US goods, including steel, aluminum, and consumer goods. Mexico followed suit on July 5 with 20% tariffs on almost $3 billion in US goods, targeting agricultural products like pork, cheese, and apples. 
EU: EU member states gave green light for the Japan-EU Free Trade Agreement (JEFTA) on July 6. It will be signed at the Brussels Summit on July 11 and come into effect within a year. It would abolish tariffs on almost 99% of EU exports to Japan and constitute the largest free trade area in the world. 
Upcoming: The US Trade Representative will host top trade officials from dozens of sub-Saharan African states for the annual African Growth and Opportunity Act Forum (AGOA) on July 11 and 12.  

SPOTLIGHT
3 Reasons Why the US Will Keep Escalating Its Trade Wars 
by Bart Oosterveld
The trade war being waged by President Donald J. Trump’s administration is one of the major risks to global growth outcomes for this year and next. The current disarray in trade relations is likely to last through the summer and fall as the Trump administration has ample domestic political and economic room for maneuver. Read the three factors that support the position here.

Managing a Trump-Putin Summit Amid Confusion Over US Policy Toward Russia
 by Brian O'Toole
The Janus-esque Russia policy of US President Donald J. Trump’s administration has been thrust back into the forefront with the president’s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki on July 16. With the US president seemingly out of sync with his administration and Russia’s intentions unclear, the hard-fought US-EU sanctions on Russia could be at risk. Read more on why the US must take a 'do no harm' approach to this contentious summit here.


TRADE
News: Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross: It's 'Premature' to Say Whether Trump's Threatened EU Auto Tariffs Will Come to Pass, Berkeley Lovelace Jr., CNBC 
Official Statement: EU Summit Meeting (29 June, 2018) Statement, European Commission 
Website: Trade Works. Tariffs Don’t, US Chamber of Commerce 
Website: Rules of Origin Facilitator, World Customs Union and International Trade Centre 
News: EU Considers Eliminating Car Tariffs to Avoid Trade War, Doug Palmer and Megan Cassella, Politico 
News: EU: Trump’s Auto Tariffs Could Cost the US $294 Billion, Till Hoppe, Handelsblatt 
News: As Trump’s Trade War Starts, China Retaliates with Comparable Tariffs of Its Own, Danielle Paquette and Emily Rauhala, Washington Post 
Analysis: Driven to Distraction, Shawn Donnan, Financial Times 
Analysis: A $1tn Global Trade War Could Yet Come to Pass, Shawn Donnan, Financial Times 
Infographic: Trade War: A Dangerous Game, Michael McKeon, Bertelsmann Foundation 
Analysis: Trade Fight Threatens Farm Belt Businesses, Jesse Newman, Wall Street Journal 
Blog: The Trump Tariff Tracker: How Severe is the Pain? Heather Long and Christopher Ingraham, Washington Post 
Report: Workers in This Town May Become Victims of Trump's Trade War, But They're Behind Him 'No Matter What,' Jennie Jarvie, LA Times 
News: Russia Becomes 7th WTO Member to Challenge Trump Tariffs, Doug Palmer, Politico 
Analysis: Mexican Election Adds More Unpredictability to Trade Relations, Steven Mufson, New York Times 
News: World’s Biggest Trading Bloc a Step Closer After Tokyo Meeting, Yuko Takeo and Emi Nobuhiro, Bloomberg 


TWEET/FACTOID OF THE WEEK



Did you know that..

...Americans were estimated to have spent upwards of $825 million on fireworks for the 4th of July? 87% of Americans planned to celebrate the holiday this year, which marked the 242nd anniversary of the day the Continental Congress approved the final wording of the Declaration of Independence in 1776. Find more July 4th facts here.


GLOBALIZATION

Opinion:African Nations are Carrying the Torch of Free Trade, Aubrey Hruby, The Hill 
Chart: Women's Employment Rates Have Widely Increased But Remained Flat in US, Adjusted for Aging, Jason Furman and Wilson Powell III, Peterson Institute for International Economics 
Analysis: Even in the Gig Economy, Women Earn Less than Men, Lydia DePilis, CNN 
Opinion: The Rich World Needs Higher Real Wage Growth, The Economist 
Analysis: Blame ‘Superstar’ Tech Firms for Slow Wage Growth: OECD, Reuters 
Official Report: Report of the Special Rapporteur on Extreme Poverty and Human Rights on His Mission to the United States of AmericaUnited Nations General Assembly 
Analysis: Forced Labor is the Backbone of the World’s Electronics Industry, Ariel Ramchandani, The Atlantic 


WHAT WE ARE READING
Opinion: Germany’s Europe-Shaking Political Crisis, Explained, Max Fisher and Katrin Bennhold, New York Times 
Analysis:Europe’s Agenda is in the Hands of a 31-Year-Old,Anna Goldenberg,The Atlantic 
Podcast:How Trump’s Immigration Crackdown Could Slam the US Economy,Ben White,Politico 
Analysis:Raising the American Flag Made in China,Michael D. Breidenbach, The Atlantic
Blog:Andrés Manuel López Obrador and a New Era of Politics in Mexico,Vanda Felbab-Brown, Brookings Institute


UPCOMING EVENTS

July 13: Investing in South Africa’s Future: A Conversation with Minister Rob DaviesAtlantic Council 
July 18:  Oil and Iran: How Renewed Sanctions WIll Affect Iran and World Markets, Atlantic Council 
July 9: Forging the Future of Jobs: A Conversation with Guy Ryder, Director General of the ILO 
July 10: Brexit: A Conversation with Michel Barnier, The Council on Foreign Relations 
July 11: Rethinking Globalization: How Do We Rebuild Support? Brookings Institution  
July 13: Investing in South Africa’s Future: A Conversation with Minister Rob DaviesAtlantic Council 
July 12 (London): Global Trade Landscape Series: Is the WTO Still Fit for Purpose? Chatham House 
July 13: Brexit and the Future of Europe, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 


Your Newsletter Team:

Marie Kasperek, Associate Director, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Cecilia Pan, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Tristan van Rooden, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council

Please send us suggested news stories, opinion pieces, publications, and upcoming events that you would like us to highlight! Email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. with your ideas and suggestions.

The views expressed in this newsletter and linked external articles and content do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its sponsors.

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Trade War: It’s (retaliatory) tariffs week. Early in the morning on July 6, the United States imposed 25% tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods in response to alleged intellectual property theft and forced technology transfer. China immediately retaliated with an equal tariff, targeting soybeans and cars. The United States could later expand tariffs to a second list of Chinese imports, totaling $16 billion, which China is expected to match dollar-for-dollar. President Trump has additionally threatened a third list of $200 billion in Chinese goods with a 10% tariff.
Meanwhile, on July 1, Canada imposed tariffs on approximately $12.5 billion in US goods, including steel, aluminum, and consumer goods. Mexico followed suit on July 5 with 20% tariffs on almost $3 billion in US goods, targeting agricultural products like pork, cheese, and apples. 
EU: EU member states gave green light for the Japan-EU Free Trade Agreement (JEFTA) on July 6. It will be signed at the Brussels Summit on July 11 and come into effect within a year. It would abolish tariffs on almost 99% of EU exports to Japan and constitute the largest free trade area in the world. 
Upcoming: The US Trade Representative will host top trade officials from dozens of sub-Saharan African states for the annual African Growth and Opportunity Act Forum (AGOA) on July 11 and 12.   Opninion: Germany’s Europe-Shaking Political Crisis, Explained, Max Fisher and Katrin Bennhold, New York Times 
Analysis: Europe’s Agenda is in the Hands of a 31-Year-Old, Anna Goldenberg, The Atlantic 
Podcast: How Trump’s Immigration Crackdown Could Slam the US Economy, Ben White, Politico 
Analysis: Raising the American Flag Made in China, Michael D. Breidenbach, The Atlantic 
Blog: Andrés Manuel López Obrador and a New Era of Politics in Mexico, Vanda Felbab-Brown, Brookings Institute