TRADE IN ACTION September 14, 2018
GLOBAL: The G20 Trade and Investment Ministerial Meeting will be held on Friday in Mar del Plata. The agenda includes global supply chains, the new industrial revolution and the international trade outlook. USTR Lighthizer will not attend but send Deputy USTR Dennis Shea in his stead.
TRADE WAR: On September 10th, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said China will take countermeasures to respond to any additional tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration. While the Trump administration has yet to indicate how quickly they will implement the next batch of tariffs worth $200 billion, President Trump commented that his administration is ready to impose tariffs on an additional $267 billion worth of Chinese goods, which would then cover nearly all $505 billion of US imports from China. In other news, China challenges the United States with more than $7 billion in sanctions for its failure to comply with a WTO ruling last year regarding anti-dumping methodologies. On September 12, the US proposed trade talks with Beijing which would likely take place in Washington.
NAFTA: While the US and Mexico have agreed upon a trade deal, the US and Canada are still in talks to finalize an agreement that would update the existing trilateral treaty and preserve the North American trade bloc. US-Canada negotiations have been prolonged by disputed issues such as US access to Canada’s protected dairy market and American plans to protect pharmaceuticals from competition.
US-EU: USTR Robert Lighthizer met with EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom on Sept 10 to discuss a potential transatlantic deal. They agreed to intensify talks in the upcoming months, in the hope “for an early harvest in the area of technical barriers to trade.” Trade was also a focus in European Commission President Juncker’s State of the Union Address of September 13.
BREXIT: On September 10, the EU’s Chief negotiator, Michel Barnier has said a Brexit deal is possible by early November, but further negotiations need to be done to prevent a hard Irish border. In fact, it is likely that a deal will be finalized at a special EU Summit on November 13. On September 8, Former UK Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson condemned Theresa May’s Chequers proposals that would maintain free trade between the EU and Britain as a “suicide vest.”
US-CHINA: On September 11, WTO published an agenda for the next formal meeting of the dispute settlement body to be held on September 21, indicating that China plans to ask for authorization for $7 billion sanctions in furtherance of official WTO legal procedures against the US. The US is likely to object to such sanctions at which point the case would move to arbitration.
US-UK: In November, the US will host the UK delegation in Washington for the fifth meeting of the US-UK Trade and Investment Working Group, and will host the third meeting of the US-UK Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SME) Dialogue in New York.
Trump’s New Trade Agreement: What’s In It?
By David A. Wemer
New Atlanticist’s David A. Wemer in conversation with Ambassador Earl Anthony Wayne, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Business and Economics Program and former US ambassador to Mexico, discussed the new bilateral US-Mexico trade deal and its implications for NAFTA. To read what they had to say about the future of the North American trade bloc, click here.
NAFTA: The End?
By David Wemer
New Atlanticist’s David A. Wemer analyzes the new US-Mexico Trade Agreement, and what that means for Canada’s economic ties with the continent, and NAFTA at large. Wemer particularly notes the significance of Canadian markets to both the US and Mexico, and the imperative to create some, bilateral or otherwise, trade agreement if not NAFTA. Read more here.
Official Remarks: Azevedo Urges Commonwealth to Play Full Part in Strengthening the Multilateral System, World Trade Organization
Official Remarks: Deputy USTR Gerrish Statement on US-UK Trade Meeting, Office of the United States Trade Representative
Official Remarks: USTR Statement on US-EU Trade Meeting,Office of the United States Trade Representative
News: Between Trump and Brussels, Trade Talks Face Myriad Challenges, Milan Schreuer and Jack Ewing,The New York Times
News: US Trade Talks with EU on Course for Partial Deal in November, James Politi and Jim Brunsden, TheFinancial Times
Analysis: Trump vs. Trudeau: How They Can Save NAFTA If They Stop Sniping, Sabrina Rodriguez and Lauren Gardner, Politico
News: Canada Ready to Allow US Dairy Access in NAFTA Talks: Sources, David Ljunggren, David Lawder, Reuters
News: Lagarde Warns of US-China Trade War ‘Shock’ to Emerging Markets, James Politi and Sam Fleming,The Financial Times
News: Trump: No Pressure to Make a Trade Deal with China, Jacob Pramuk, CNBC
Analysis: Why China could Withstand the Trade War Far Longer than Trump Thinks, David J. Lynch, The Washington Post
News: China Seeks WTO Backing for $7 Billion Sanctions on US Over Dumping Duties, Tom Miles, Reuters
Brief: China’s Belt and Road is Full of Holes, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Analysis: China Woos U.S. Companies Again, Drops Trade Threats, Lingling Wei and Yoko Kubota, The Wall Street Journal
Opinion: America, China and the Route to an All-Out Trade War, Gideon Rachman, The Financial Times
Graphic: Where We Stand in Trump’s Trade War, Doug Palmer and Jon McClure, Politico
News: Trump Says Tariffs Mean Ford Can Make New Model at Home. Ford Says it Won’t, Neal E. Boudette, New York Times
News: Trump Tells Apple to Build in US to Avoid Tariffs, Tim Bradshaw, The Financial Times
Opinion: America Can’t Be Trusted to Run the Global Economy, Berat Albayrak, Foreign Policy
Analysis: Trump Card: Japan’s Abe Bets on Trade in Bid for New Term, Peter Landers, The Wall Street Journal
News: India is Asking for a Trade Deal Due to Our Tough Policies: Trump, Varghese K. George, The Hindu
TWEET/FACTOID OF THE WEEK:
Did you know... that a huge campaign “Tariffs Hurt the Heartland” comprising of over 86 business organizations officially announced its formation to Congress on September 12th? Their website tracks the tariffs' negative impact on communities through this interactive map.
Speech: UNDP’s Third Gender Equality Strategy (2018-2021), United Nations Development Programme
Opinion: Whither the Oil Market? Headlines and Tariffs and Bears, Oh My… Center for Strategic and International Studies
Speech: OAS Hosts Dialogue on Women’s Economic Empowerment, US Mission to the Organization of American States
Analysis: In Which Countries Do Children Have the Best Chances to Surpass Their Parent’s Education? Roy van der Weid and Ambar Narayan, World Bank
Analysis: The 5G Race: China and U.S. Battle to Control World’s Fastest Wireless Internet, Josh Chin, Sarah Krouse and Dan Strumpf,The Wall Street Journal
Analysis: The Perils of China’s ‘Debt-Trap Diplomacy”, The Economist
Analysis: Pakistan Rethinks its Role in Xi’s Belt and Road Plan , Jamil Anderlini, Henny Sender and Farhan Bokhari, The Financial Times
Analysis: Immigration is Vital to Boost Economic Growth, Ian Goldin, The Financial Times
Analysis: We Could Shift to Sustainability and Save $26 Trillion. Why Aren’t We Doing It?, David Roberts, Vox
WHAT WE ARE READING:
Blog: Russian Sovereign Debt in Crosshairs, Brian O'Toole and Josh Rudolph, Atlantic Council
Opinion: Is the US Using Sanctions Too Aggressively? Peter Harrell, Foreign Affairs
Analysis: Migration and the Economy, Ian Goldin, Oxford Martin School
Private Equity: Inside the Fall of Abraaj, Simeon Kerr and Henny Sender, The Financial Times
Analysis: The End of Neutrality, Pablo Delcan, Politico
Podcast: Trade Guys on the Road: George Washington University Edition , Scott Miller and Bill Reinsch, Center for Strategic and International Studies
September 17: Moldova’s Reforms: Progress, Challenges, and Future Prospects, Atlantic Council
September 18: Hacker-Powered Security: Voices on Coordinated Vulnerability Disclosure, Atlantic Council
September 27: From Inside the Pentagon: The Work of Women in National Security, Atlantic Council
September 17: A Conversation with Six Former USTRs, Center for Strategic and International Studies
September 17: Japan in Asia: Economic Diplomacy in the New Geopolitics, Brookings Institute
September 25: In Conversation with Pierre Moscovici, ECCNY, New York
November 5-8: DC Fintech Week, Georgetown University’s Institute of International Economic Law
Your Newsletter Team:
Marie Kasperek, Associate Director, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Christina Gay, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Raina Hasan, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
The views expressed in this newsletter and linked external articles and content do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its sponsors.
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