Publications

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A new Atlantic Council–Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) report lays out six scenarios for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2030, underscoring how greater integration and better governance hold the key to greater prosperity.

The report finds that if the region and world move ahead as expected, 57 million more Latin Americans and Caribbean citizens will join the middle class over the fourteen-year period. Annual regional GDP growth will be 2.4 percent, slightly outperforming the US rate of 2.2 percent. But the region will face significant challenges ranging from income inequality to its demography and the impact of climate change. 

 

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The final report of Middle East Strategy Task Force Co-Chairs Madeleine K. Albright and Stephen J. Hadley proposes nothing short of a paradigm shift in how the international community and the Middle East interact. Not only does the report suggest ways forward for the region’s most immediate crises in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya. It also puts forward a pragmatic and actionable long-term strategy that emphasizes the talent and aspirations of the people of the Middle East themselves, with an eye toward harnessing the region’s enormous human potential.
This report is the culmination of the Task Force’s nearly two years of efforts which have included the publication of five working group papers, nine public events, forty private roundtables, and extensive consultations in Tunis, Cairo, Amman, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Jerusalem, and Ramallah.

 
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The upending of the Middle Eastern order since 2011 came about primarily because of failures of governance. We must properly understand the why and how of this Middle Eastern breakdown if we are to recognize and commit to the work that is truly necessary to build a new, secure, and durable regional order. Investing in sustainable governance is important for the world and for the rising generation of young Arabs, who can either become a force for tremendous progress or a generation lost to violence and despair.

 
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Throughout much of the 1990s, progress was the order of the day. NATO enlargement under the Clinton administration was part of a broader global strategy, presenting democratic and entrepreneurial opportunity. This process was coupled with the prospect of new cooperation with Russia to create an undivided, free, and prosperous Europe. A decade and a half later, Central Europe faces severe challenges and signs of particular vulnerability to backlash against the very ideals this period set out to establish and the values expected to endure. 

 

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Over the past several decades, the United States has led globally on expansion of a rules-based trade agenda. However, the United States has not had a development agenda of comparable priority. The Bretton Woods economic institutions and the leading regional multilateral development banks (MDBs), which have formed the core multilateral financial architecture since World War II, today face skepticism as to their long-term relevance, particularly in the face of declining US support. This report, A Path to US Leadership in the Asia-Pacific: Revitalizing the Multilateral Financial Institutions, authored by Olin Wethington and Robert A. Manning, focuses on the challenge of revitalizing these institutions on behalf of an economic order aligned with the strategic interests of the United States and its closest Asian allies.

 

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Since Putin’s return to power in 2012, the Kremlin has accelerated its efforts to resurrect the arsenal of ‘active measures’…” writes Dr. Alina Polyakova in The Kremlin’s Trojan Horses: Russian Influence in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, a new report from the Atlantic Council’s Dinu Patriciu’s Eurasia Center. Western European democracies are not immune to the Kremlin’s tactics of influence, which seeks to turn Western liberal virtues–free media, plurality of opinion, and openness–into vulnerabilities to be exploited. 

 

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Over the past decade and a half, Russia has placed an increased emphasis on nuclear weapons in its military strategy and doctrine. Moscow’s assertive “escalate-to-de-escalate” nuclear strategy poses a distinguishable threat to NATO nations, and requires greater strategic thinking about NATO’s nuclear posture. After a quarter century of reducing its reliance on nuclear weapons, NATO now lacks a credible deterrent for Russian “de-escalatory” nuclear strikes. To grapple with this possibility, NATO must consider the development of new, more flexible nuclear capabilities of its own.

 

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The European Union (EU) is facing numerous crises, including massive migration flows, the UK’s vote to leave the EU (Brexit), and rising support for anti-EU and populist parties. In “The EU’s Capital Markets Union—Unlocking Investment Through Gradual Integration,” author Zdenek Kudrna, a post-doctoral researcher at the University of Salzburg, argues that these crises all share one characteristic: They would be easier to resolve if EU economies grew faster.

To reinvigorate economic growth across Europe, the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, launched the “Juncker Plan” in November 2014. Kudrna introduces the Capital Markets Union (CMU) as the core regulatory initiative of this plan. 

 

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A permanent rotational presence of NATO troops in the Baltic States and Poland, the outcome from the recent NATO Warsaw Summit, will form an integral part of NATO’s increased deterrence measures against Russia in Europe’s east. One of NATO’s key challenges as it seeks to enhance its presence in the Baltic Sea region is the lack of modern military infrastructure, especially the kind that meets the needs of large Allied units. The Baltic states have not been unaware of their military infrastructure gaps, and all three countries have built their armed forces from the ground up, focusing on manning the force and equipment requirements. But if NATO troops cannot get their tanks and supply convoys to training ranges and bases far from the Baltic coastline, they will not be of much use. Additionally, improving military infrastructure is not just a matter of presenting a more palatable offer to NATO allies; it is also an issue of operational capabilities.

 

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At the outset of the political uprisings that began in North Africa in 2010, the four countries of Algeria, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia faced similar economic and political challenges. Over the past almost six years, the countries have adopted different approaches to address these problems, however the overall economic picture today is grim amid varied political environments. In “Aftermath of the Arab Spring in North Africa,” authors Mohsin Khan and Karim Mezran examine whether these four North African countries have been successful in meetings the demands of their populations as expressed in the 2010-11 uprisings and what challenges remain for them in the future. 
 

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