You would think it’s self-evident that Ukraine’s current crisis and the controversies sparked before its eruption by Iran’s nuclear program, China’s muscle-flexing against Japan and the Philippines over disputed tiny islands, and Syria’s continuing carnage are distinct—that they have little, if anything, in common. Well, you’d be wrong, at least in the eyes of the staunchest critics of American foreign policy under Barack Obama. In their mind, what connects these conflicts, which are so far apart spatially, is that each has been aggravated, perhaps even enabled, by Obama’s fecklessness, which projects to adversaries America’s weakness instead of its strength. In this reading, America’s friends have lost confidence in wayward Washington, while its foes have developed a contempt for American will, which inclines them to brazenness because they believe there’s no price to be paid. In this portrayal Obama is a stick figure evoking memories of Neville Chamberlain.

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History   tends to repeat itself (especially if its lessons are forgotten). More than 160 years ago, in 1853, war broke out between France, Britain, Turkey and Piedmont on one side and Russia on the other. In military operations that stretched from the Baltic to the Romanian Principalities and the Crimean Peninsula, Russia was defeated and withdrew its borders northward from the Danube River – but it kept Crimea, thanks in part to a historic defense of its key city, Sevastopol, against a year-long siege by British and French forces.

In World War II, Russian-ruled Sevastopol fought invaders again – the army of Nazi Germany – and was proclaimed by Stalin a “hero city,” its name carved into the polished stone of a somber memorial outside the Kremlin walls. In 1954, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, who had roots in Ukraine, transferred Crimea to the jurisdiction of the Soviet Ukrainian Republic, a declaration of Russian-Ukrainian brotherhood that had no consequence then for the region’s power politics. The consequence is enormous now, as President Vladimir Putin uses the Russians’ emotional sense of ownership over Crimea to win support at home for his seizure of the peninsula from independent Ukraine.

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The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was on the road to irrelevance. The most successful military alliance in history has lacked a real enemy since the Soviet Union disintegrated a quarter of a century ago.  After a dozen years of war in Afghanistan,  NATO’s role is coming to an ignominious end.

Because of Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s refusal to sign a Basic Security Agreement (BSA), NATO is now forced to plan for the withdraw of all of its military forces by the end of 2014.  Without substantial coalition forces and, as important, the money and aid Afghanistan receives because of that presence, the Karzai government will be unable to prevent the Taliban, local tribes, warlords and gangs from wresting power and control away from Kabul.  Violence, chaos and instability loom as the legacies of  NATO’s engagement.

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The key to ending the crisis in Syria is a better understanding of local players and power dynamics. By viewing the conflict through a local prism, the United States and its Western allies can help build a coherent, capable, and legitimate opposition, which is an essential ingredient for any political transition or even negotiations.

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As a Small Nation Faces Russian Pressure, Europe’s Future is on the Line

Moldovan Prime Minister Iurie Leancă’s meetings at the White House today are a crucial sign of US support for his leadership and for Moldova’s Euro-Atlantic future, especially alongside Russia’s invasion of Moldova’s neighbor, Ukraine. In November, Moldova, alongside Georgia, signed a European Union (EU) Association Agreement, a step toward what Moldovans hope will be their country’s eventual membership in the EU. Russia’s occupation of Crimea is a blunt reminder of the high price – territorial dismemberment – that President Vladimir Putin is extracting for these countries’ desire to be part of a Europe that is whole, free, and at peace. Leancă is taking a real political risk by adhering to his people’s wishes despite Russia’s coercion.

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is part of the highest-stakes gambits of President Putin’s career. Putin is not bent on war or on dismembering Ukraine. Rather, he seeks to reverse his humiliating defeat in failing to intimidate Ukraine into abandoning its return to Europe.

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Africa Center Assistant Director Joshua Meservey writes in a Joint Special Operations University monograph on the al-Shabaab insurgency in Somalia:

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At his first public address in Washington at the Atlantic Council this week, Georgia’s new prime minister, Irakli Garibashvili, unequivocally committed Georgia to a Euro-Atlantic future that would include NATO and European Union membership. Garibashvili argued that Georgia’s democratic credentials, efforts to normalize its relations with Russia in spite of the latter’s provocations, and contribution to vital NATO missions all indicate that it is ready to take next steps toward becoming a NATO member.

In a special issue brief, “Georgia’s Path to NATO,” Atlantic Council Executive Vice President Damon Wilson weighs in to the controversial debate and lays out a viable path forward on Georgia’s aspirations. Wilson offers a creative strategy to restore the credibility of the Bucharest summit commitment that Georgia will become a NATO member by drawing lessons from historical antecedents of how the Alliance has caveated its security guarantee to address disputed territory of its members.

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Bottom Line Up Front

• President Idriss Déby Itno has deployed Chadian armed forces into the violent political maelstroms unfolding in Mali and the Central African Republic (CAR), earning gratitude from Western donor powers and possibly transforming Chad—long considered a diplomatic backwater—into a regional powerbroker
• But Déby's intervention in CAR has been controversial. International NGOs and CAR citizens have accused Déby of picking sides in the country's affairs, and the UN and other international organizations have highlighted Chad's own shaky internal stability and spotty human rights record
• Diplomatic pressure on Chad is becoming so intense that Déby recently admitted the need for Chadian forces to bow out to a neutral United Nations peacekeeping force

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