What Ecuador’s election will mean for the region’s fight against organized crime

On February 9, Ecuadorians will head to the polls to elect their next president in what is shaping up to be a consequential election for the country and the wider region. Whether after one or two rounds of voting, whichever candidate emerges as the winner will have an opportunity to determine the trajectory of Ecuador and help shape security across the Western Hemisphere.

Once known as an “island of peace,” Ecuador has become a cautionary tale of how quickly a country can be destabilized by the corrupting power of organized crime, illicit trade, and weak institutions. The next president will inherit a country in crisis, facing the challenges of rebuilding trust in government and addressing the surge of crime that has made Ecuador the most violent country in the region—all while battling an economic recession.

Security and economic crises

In 2024, Ecuador achieved the dubious distinction of becoming the number one exporter of cocaine in Latin America and the Caribbean to Europe—a shocking turnaround for a country that doesn’t produce much of the drug itself. Sandwiched between the world’s two largest coca producers—Colombia to the north and Peru to the south—Ecuador is strategically located as a transit hub for international drug-trafficking networks. Criminal organizations associated with Mexico’s Jalisco Nueva Generación and Sinaloa cartels, Colombia’s Cali Cartel, and mafias in Europe, among other criminal groups, have exploited the country’s weak institutions and porous borders. Ecuador has become a hub to move drugs to international markets via small planes, speedboats, and even commercial seaports.

The consequences have been catastrophic. Nearly seven thousand people in Ecuador were killed in 2024 alone, making it the second deadliest year in the country’s history. An estimated 95,000 people fled the country last year, and territorial battles between gangs backed by overseas cartels have turned entire neighborhoods into war zones. Despite more than thirty-five states of emergency declared across three administrations and the militarization of conflict zones under the current president, Daniel Noboa, the security crisis is far from resolved.

Corruption has also permeated various levels of government, with police, military, judges, and prosecutors often linked to criminal networks. State institutions are weak, underfunded, and poorly coordinated, while law enforcement agencies’ capabilities are largely outdated and ill-equipped to combat sophisticated organized crime operations. This issue is further exacerbated by the rampant recruitment of children and adolescents from marginalized neighborhoods into organized crime, lured by the promise of money, weapons, and power.

Economic conditions offer little hope that the security crisis will improve. Ecuador’s economy contracted by 1.5 percent in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same period the previous year, and the country faces a significant fiscal deficit. The next president will have to address the security crisis while attempting to rebuild an economy teetering on the brink of collapse.

A high-stakes but fragmented election

While security is the top concern for Ecuadorians, the upcoming election has offered little clarity on how the candidates plan to address the crisis. The field is fragmented, with sixteen candidates vying for the presidency, thirteen of whom poll below 3 percent. The race is expected to come down to a contest between the incumbent president, Noboa, and opposition candidate Luisa González. However, neither has presented a detailed security strategy or a comprehensive roadmap to address Ecuador’s urgent challenges.

Noboa’s campaign has been clouded by controversy. His year-and-a-half-long tenure has been marked by multiple crises, including the declaration of an internal armed conflict against twenty-two criminal gangs, widespread energy shortages that left cities without power for up to fourteen hours a day, and public disputes with Vice President Veronica Abad. Noboa’s approval rating plummeted from 72 percent in January 2024 to 45.9 percent by the end of the year. While his campaign portrays his administration as a force for change, critics question his commitment to democratic norms and point to his controversial political alliances. Notably, Noboa’s appearance at US President Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20 gave his candidacy a significant boost in the polls and garnered extensive coverage in the Ecuadorian media.

In another strategic move, Noboa hosted a lunch on January 29 with Venezuelan opposition politician Edmundo González, whom the government of Ecuador officially recognizes as Venezuela’s elected president. Noboa also extended invitations to four Ecuadorian prefects and two mayors from the opposition party Movimiento Revolución Ciudadana. However, the opposition party has not acknowledged González as Venezuela’s president, and none of them accepted the invitations. This allowed Noboa to criticize their stance on authoritarian regimes and the Venezuelan crisis, an issue that has heavily impacted Ecuador, which has taken in nearly half a million Venezuelan refugees.

On the other hand, Luisa González, the Ecuadorian opposition candidate for Movimiento Revolución Ciudadana, has focused her campaign on nostalgia for her party’s years in power under former President Rafael Correa. This was a period when crime rates were lower and the economy was stronger. But her association with Correa—who remains in exile in Brussels after being convicted of corruption—has also limited her appeal. While she resonates with older voters who remember Correa’s presidency fondly, she has struggled to connect with younger voters, who make up 25 percent of the electorate and demand fresh ideas and solutions.

A forward-looking approach to Ecuador’s challenges

The next president will face the monumental task of dismantling the well-funded, highly connected operations of organized crime while restoring trust in government and revitalizing the economy. These challenges require more than the militarization of police forces or the declaration of states of emergency; they demand systemic reforms to strengthen state institutions, create opportunities for vulnerable populations, and root out the corruption that sustains criminal networks.

Ecuador cannot tackle this crisis on its own. The transnational nature of organized crime necessitates international cooperation, particularly with the United States, one of the world’s largest consumers of cocaine. The Trump administration has already shown that tackling drug cartels will be a focus of its diplomacy with Latin America—an agenda that could pave the way for closer collaboration with Ecuador. Both the United States and Ecuador have a shared interest in combating drug trafficking, stemming the flow of illicit trade, and addressing the violence and migration crises plaguing the region. Yet, this election could also determine Ecuador’s allies in this effort. While González has hinted at alignment with the BRICS nations—the grouping made up of Brazil, Russia, China, South Africa, and several countries that have joined in the past year—Noboa has sought stronger ties with the United States and the International Monetary Fund.

A sustainable solution must begin with reforming Ecuador’s fragmented and under-resourced law enforcement agencies. Establishing a specialized task force to apprehend high-value targets and strengthening international agreements both with neighboring countries and with the United States will be essential. Equally critical is addressing the root causes of crime—poverty, inequality, and lack of education—which have made Ecuador’s youth vulnerable to recruitment by criminal gangs. Faced with severe security and economic challenges that can’t be confronted alone, Ecuador’s next president will serve a four-year term, but their leadership will be pivotal in shaping the nation’s long-term trajectory.


Isabel Chiriboga is an assistant director at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.

Further reading

Image: Guayaquil, Ecuador. The first electoral simulation of the 2025 General Elections at the Salesian Polytechnic University on January 19, 2025. The general elections in Ecuador will have a record number of observers, with 943 people, both national and foreign, registered to monitor the electoral process, according to a statement from the National Electoral Council (CNE), organizer of the elections. Carlos Silva/Pool / Latin America News Agency via Reuters Connect.