– Syrian Kurds say must be represented at Geneva talks 
– EU official says Syria losses may force ISIS leaders to move to Libya
– Syria court sentences Assad cousin to 20 years for murder
– Aid airdrops to Syria’s besieged are called too dangerous 
– Iraq to start Mosul offensive against ISIS in first half of 2016 
– Turkey suspects Russia building airbase near border with Syria

Syrian Kurds say must be represented at Geneva talks
Co-chair of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) Saleh Muslim said Syrian Kurds must be represented at peace talks in Geneva or they will fail. Muslim also said one of the opposition groups involved, Jaysh al-Islam, had the “same mentality” as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL). The negotiations, which are due to begin on January 25 in Geneva, look increasingly uncertain for reasons including a dispute over the composition of the opposition delegation. Russia wants to include other figures that could be deemed closer to its own thinking as well as the main Syrian Kurdish party, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), and its affiliated People’s Protection Units (YPG) militia. The YPG meanwhile is an important partner in the US-led anti-ISIS fight in Syria. The Saudi-backed opposition council has said it will boycott the Geneva negotiations if Russia insists on such a shake-up. [Reuters, 1/22/2016]

EU official says Syria losses may force ISIS leaders to move to Libya
ISIS military losses in Syria and Iraq may prompt some of its leaders to relocate to Libya, EU Counterterrorism Coordinator Gilles de Kerchove said Thursday. De Kerchove also warned that the raids by the US-led coalition and Russian warplanes as well as operations by Iraqi and Syrian ground troops could lead ISIS to stage more Paris-style attacks in Europe. De Kerchove cited the jihadist group’s recent ouster from the Iraqi city of Ramadi and heavy air strikes in Syria where he said the organization is now on the defensive, saying there could be “some movement of senior leadership from the caliphate to Libya.” It would be easy at present for the ISIS group to operate in Libya, where there are an estimated 3,000 ISIS fighters, “because there are no air strikes for the time being in Libya and not a fully functioning government,” he said. [AFP, 1/22/2016]

Syria court sentences Assad cousin to 20 years for murder
A cousin of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad has been sentenced to 20 years in prison for the murder of a military officer last summer, a security source said Friday. “A court in Latakia on Thursday sentenced Suleiman Assad to 20 years in prison for the murder of Colonel Hassan al-Sheikh,” the source said. The incident raised tensions within the Alawite community in the Latakia province. Al-Sheikh’s relatives said at the time that the president had pledged “to punish the perpetrator, whoever he is.” Suleiman Assad’s father, Hilal Assad, a first cousin of the president, headed the defense forces in Latakia city before his death in March 2014 during clashes with rebels in nearby Kasab.[AFP, 1/22/2016]

Aid airdrops to Syria’s besieged are called too dangerous
The US Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James said aid airdrops in Syria are possible. “If we’re asked to do it, we have the assets, we have the people, we know how to do airdrops,” said James. Russia, the Syrian government’s strongest ally, this month announced airdrops to the city of Deir Ezzor, where government held areas are blockaded by ISIS militants and an estimated 200,000 people are besieged. A series of UN Security Council resolutions since early 2014 allow for aid deliveries without the permission of Syria’s government, though their effect on airdrops is not clear. But while diplomats, aid workers, and UN officials say they are exploring all options to reach besieged communities, they say airdrops face deep complications, both political and logistical, with the risk of Syria responding with force. [AFP, 1/22/2016]

Iraq to start Mosul offensive against ISIS in first half of 2016
Iraq plans to launch an operation to dislodge ISIS from the northern city of Mosul in the first half of 2016, Defense Minister Khaled al-Obeidi told Reuters on Thursday. After the Iraqi army retook control of Ramadi from ISIS in December 2015, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said 2016 will be the year of “final victory” over ISIS. Secretary of State John Kerry also said Thursday that the anti-ISIS coalition will reach its goal of “seriously denting” ISIS in Iraq and Syria in 2016. US Defense Secretary Ash Carter has said US led coalition will use “boots on the ground” to take back the cities of Mosul and Raqqa. [Reuters, 1/22/2016]

Turkey suspects Russia building airbase near border with Syria
Turkish authorities reportedly have intelligence suggesting that Russia might be preparing to establish an airbase near Turkey’s border with Syria, a step likely to deepen tensions between the two countries that flared after Turkish warplanes downed a Russian fighter jet in November. A Russian delegation reportedly flew to the northern Syrian town of Qamishli, right across the border from Nusaybin in southeastern Anatolia, on January 16. Turkish sources suspect that the delegation’s visit is part of Russian plans to renovate the Qamishli airport so that it could be turned into a base for warplanes and military cargo planes. This would also entail installation of radars that would be able to closely monitor Turkish military activities in the area. Days before planned Syria peace talks in Geneva, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has accused Russia as well as others of trying to undermine negotiations for a solution to the Syrian conflict by including groups such as the YPG. [Today’s Zaman, AFP, 1/22/2016]