United States sees Assad staying in Syria until March 2017
String of attacks kill 20 Syria rebel commanders
OPCW reports Syria’s entire chemical arsenal destroyed
ISIS has lost 30 percent of its territory
Fears of more strife for Iraq amid Saudi-Iranian row

United States sees Assad staying in Syria until March 2017
The Obama administration’s best-case scenario for political transition in Syria does not foresee President Bashar al-Assad stepping down as the country’s leader before March 2017, according to a document obtained by The Associated Press. An internal timeline prepared for US officials dealing with the Syria crisis sets an unspecified date in March 2017 for Assad to “relinquish” his position as president and for his “inner circle” to depart. That would be more than five years after Obama first called for Assad to leave. Countless hurdles exist to a peaceful solution in Syria with the growing rift between Sunni-led Saudi Arabia and Shia-ruled Iran not the least of the issues. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said Wednesday, “Saudi Arabia’s wrong decision will have an effect on (Syria) talks in Vienna and New York, but Tehran will stay committed.” [AP, 1/6/2016]

String of attacks kill 20 Syria rebel commanders
At least 20 rebel commanders, most of them hardline Islamists, have died in Syria since early December in a string of mysterious targeted killings, according to activists. The commanders have been killed in roadside bombs or shootouts, but no faction has claimed responsibility for their deaths. Analysts say they could be part of an assassination campaign carried out by either the government of President Bashar al-Assad or the Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL). On Tuesday, Abu Rateb al-Homsi, a provincial “emir” in the Ahrar al-Sham hardline opposition group, was killed when unknown attackers fired on his car in the central province of Homs, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). Homsi is the most high-profile of those killed, most of whom come from the ranks of the al-Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front and other Islamist groups. [AFP, AP, 1/6/2016]

OPCW reports Syria’s entire chemical arsenal destroyed
Syria’s declared chemical weapons arsenal has been completely destroyed capping more than two years of work, a global arms watchdog said Tuesday. The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), which oversaw the dangerous removal and elimination of Syria’s avowed stockpile, has for months been warning of the continued use of mustard, sarin, and chlorine gas in the brutal conflict. But it has avoided blaming either the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, the rebels, or ISIS for the use of the weapons banned under international law. Also on Tuesday, the acting UN disarmament chief told the UN Security Council (UNSC) that the chemical weapons watchdog agency Kim Won-soo has reported a possible use of the deadly nerve agent sarin in an alleged chemical attack in Syria. Kim spoke to several reporters after briefing the UNSC behind closed doors on the latest report from OPCW. [AFP, 1/6/2016]

ISIS has lost 30 percent of its territory
The US-led coalition fighting ISIS said Tuesday that the militants have lost 30 percent of the territory they once held in Iraq and Syria. Baghdad-based spokesman Col. Steve Warren said the extremists have lost 40 percent of their territory in Iraq and 20 percent in Syria, adding that they are now in a “defensive crouch.” This announcement comes as ISIS steps up attacks on the western town of Haditha, where 45 Iraqi security forces and Sunni tribal fighters have been killed in clashes over the past three days, and one week after Iraqi forces backed by US-led airstrikes pushed the extremists out of central Ramadi, the capital of Anbar province. [BBC, AP, AFP, 1/6/2016]

Fears of more strife for Iraq amid Saudi-Iranian row
Sectarian attacks south of Baghdad have aroused local fears that an escalating row between the region’s Sunni and Shia powerhouses could plunge Iraq back into all-out civil conflict. Wedged between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Iraq is the only country to have borders with both of the feuding giants, but analysts say a return to the kind of communal bloodletting that raged a decade ago was unlikely. On Monday, two Sunni mosques were bombed. A Sunni muezzin and a displaced Sunni man were also killed in the Hilla and Iskandariya areas south of the capital. The nature and location of the violence was reminiscent of some of the darkest moments of the civil war in Iraq in 2006 and 2007. On Wednesday, Iraq offered to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran to end their dispute triggered by Riyadh’s execution of a prominent Shia cleric, saying it could spill over into the rest of the region. Iraqi Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, speaking in Tehran with his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif, said the row could have “wide-ranging repercussions.” [AFP, 1/6/2016]