Georgians go to the polls this weekend in a parliamentary election that is widely expected to determine whether the country will pursue integration with Moscow or the West. This closely mirrors the situation in Moldova, where voters face a similar choice on November 3 when the country holds the second round of its presidential election.
Allegations of undue Russian influence have overshadowed the ongoing election campaigns in Georgia and Moldova, highlighting the geopolitical significance of both votes. Critics have accused Moscow of engaging in everything from disinformation to voter bribery as part of Russian efforts to promote Kremlin-friendly candidates.
The first round of voting in Moldova took place last weekend and featured a separate referendum on enshrining the country’s European aspirations in their constitution, which voters backed by a razor-thin margin. Moldova’s pro-EU President Maia Sandu responded to this close win by suggesting that the Kremlin was engaged in a comprehensive campaign of election interference. “We have won the first battle in a difficult fight that will determine the future of our country,” she commented. “We fought fairly and won justly in an unjust struggle.”
Sandu’s claims of Russian meddling received prompt and strongly-worded backing from Brussels and Washington. Moldova’s presidential election and EU referendum campaigns had been marked by “really unprecedented intimidation and foreign interference by Russia and its proxies,” EU officials commented on Monday.
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The outlook ahead of this Saturday’s Georgian parliamentary vote is similar with one key difference: The country’s pro-Kremlin Georgian Dream party has already been in power for the past twelve years and is now looking to secure a mandate for its increasingly open advocacy of closer ties with Russia.
Officially, at least, the Georgian Dream party remains committed to furthering Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic integration. However, opponents claim that in practice, the party is becoming increasingly aligned with the Kremlin. They accuse the current authorities of passing authoritarian legislation such as a Russian-style “foreign agent law” that threatens to muzzle Georgia’s vibrant civil society.
The Georgian Dream political party was founded by the country’s richest man, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, who reportedly has extensive business ties to Russia. In recent months, Ivanishvili has attempted to attract voters by warning that election victory for his pro-Western opponents could lead to renewed hostilities with Russia, which continues to occupy around twenty percent of Georgia. “We choose peace, not war,” he told a rally in Tbilisi on Wednesday.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has cast a long shadow over Georgia’s parliamentary elections. During the final weeks of the campaign, Georgian Dream officials sparked controversy by unveiling a series of adverts juxtaposing grim photos of war-torn Ukraine with bright images of a peaceful and prosperous Georgia. “I have never seen anything so shameful, so offensive to our culture, traditions, history, and beliefs,” commented Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili.
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The election interference tactics Russia is currently accused of employing in Moldova and Georgia echo earlier Kremlin efforts to manipulate Ukraine’s fledgling democracy and prevent the country from turning westward. Prior to the onset of Russian military aggression against Ukraine in 2014, Moscow had attempted to use a wide range of tools including bribery, information warfare, and political violence to stop Kyiv exiting the Kremlin orbit. When all these measures failed to reverse Ukraine’s European choice, Putin escalated to direct military intervention with the seizure of Crimea. This set the stage for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine eight years later.
Voters in Moldova and Georgia are acutely aware of the Kremlin’s increasingly violent reaction to the potential loss of Ukraine, and are understandably eager to avoid suffering the same fate. At the same time, Moscow must contend with considerable public enthusiasm in both countries for European integration. While Moldova’s recent referendum on EU membership ended in a virtual tie, polls typically indicate majority backing for the European Union of sixty percent or higher. Pro-EU sentiment is thought to be even stronger in Georgia, with one recent poll finding seventy nine percent in favor of joining the EU.
Geopolitics is not the only topic shaping the current election cycles in Moldova and Georgia, of course. Domestic issues such as household budgets and the management of the economy will also be crucial in determining the outcome of the two votes. Nevertheless, the prominence of Russia in both election campaigns is a timely reminder that Moscow is in no mood to retreat and remains fully committed to retaining its regional influence.
Vladimir Putin chose to invade Ukraine because he became convinced that the country was slipping irreversibly away from Russia and could no longer be kept in place by non-military means. This chilling reality looms large over the Moldovan and Georgian electorates as they prepare to vote in elections that will potentially define their futures for decades to come.
In a soft power contest of ideas, there is little doubt that the West would prove far more appealing to Moldovan and Georgian voters than anything the Kremlin has to offer. However, in the more pragmatic and immediate realm of hard power, it is Russia that currently holds the clear advantage. Coupled with Moscow’s proven record of successful election influence operations, this means there is every chance that pro-Kremlin forces could strong-arm their way to ballot box success in both Moldova and Georgia.
Katherine Spencer is a program assistant at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.
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The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.
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Image: A drone view shows election billboards of the ruling Georgian Dream party, one of which depicts a devastated Ukrainian city contrasted against a peaceful Georgian one, in Tbilisi, Georgia September 27, 2024. (REUTERS/Irakli Gedenidze)