What will happen when the United Nations arms embargo on Iran expires on October 18, 2020? The Trump administration is trying to persuade other UN Security Council members to agree to a new arms embargo, in part by threatening to invoke the “snapback” provisions of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that can only be invoked by a “participant” in the JCPOA—which the Trump administration withdrew from in May 2018.

Whether the arms embargo expires or is extended will have major implications for the United States’ partners, competitors, and the Middle East. Read on and watch the video from our June 10 event for analysis by experts with insight into the perspectives of the JCPOA signatories and much of the Middle East.

Our blog pieces

Events

Explore more

Through our Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East and Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, the Atlantic Council works with allies and partners in Europe and the wider Middle East to protect US interests, build peace and security, and unlock the human potential of the region.

Content

IranSource

Jun 9, 2020

The United States needs to preserve the UN Security Council snapback for the future

By Thomas S. Warrick

The United States, for its part, will need to be careful not to undermine one of its most powerful diplomatic tools developed since World War II: the ability to use the unique authority of the UN Security Council to get Russia and China—sometimes—to agree on what needs to be done.

Iran Middle East

IranSource

Jun 9, 2020

Post-embargo, Iran arms purchases would be limited and selective

By Barbara Slavin

Iran's purchases will likely be limited, by both economic and geopolitical constraints, including the impact of US sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic and caution on the part of potential suppliers.

Iran Middle East

IranSource

Jun 9, 2020

Moscow is not buying Pompeo’s Iran snapback sanctions logic

By Mark N. Katz

Moscow made clear months ago that, once the United Nations arms embargo on Tehran expires in October, Russia intends to resume selling weapons to Iran.

Iran Middle East

IranSource

Jun 9, 2020

Lifting the UN arms embargo on Iran: Insights into Turkey’s options

By Şaban Kardaş

A particular issue of concern to Turkey is whether Moscow might choose to supply advanced weapons systems to Iran, which Tehran has long sought.

Iran Middle East

IranSource

Jun 9, 2020

Will China become a major arms supplier to Iran?

By Jonathan Fulton

By becoming a major arms supplier to Iran, Beijing would unnecessarily antagonize the United States and alienate several Iranian rivals across the Middle East, many of which are also strategic partners for China.

China Iran

IranSource

Jun 9, 2020

The Gulf is watching Washington’s moves on the UN embargo on Iran

By Kirsten Fontenrose

Despite the spectrum of positions on Iran exhibited by Gulf governments, one thing they agree on is the need for the US and Europe to arrive at one voice on the embargo, and on Iran’s proxy activities across the board.

Iran Middle East

IranSource

Jun 9, 2020

The European approach on the arms embargo on Iran

By Michel Duclos

On the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, the European approach has been, to a large extent, inspired by legal concerns and a commitment to a rules-based international order.

European Union Iran

IranSource

Jun 9, 2020

Removing the UN arms embargo on Iran will reward Tehran’s malign actions

By Colonel Udi Evental

An Israeli perspective.

Iran Israel

IranSource

Jun 9, 2020

Lack of modern technologies hampers Iran’s defense industry

By Robert Czulda

While, in many countries, defense companies are private, they are state-owned in Iran. Because of the Islamic Republic’s long pariah status, interaction with the outside world has been limited.

Iran Middle East