China-Middle East

Energy Sanctions Dashboard: October 2025

The October 2025 edition of the Energy Sanctions Dashboard analyzed China’s central role in the market for sanctioned oil and the techniques Russia, Iran, and Venezuela use to evade sanctions on oil.

How Gulf investments are responding to the US-China critical minerals competition

By Chenjie Song and Jonathan Fulton

Gulf sovereign wealth funds are seeking to maximize return on investment while maintaining strategic optionality.

The Iran war is not about China

By Jonathan Fulton

China is behaving like a normal external power with interests in the region, not like a crisis manager shaping outcomes.

Inside Tehran’s toll booth

By Alisha Chhangani

Iran is using formal, semi‑formal, and informal channels, as well as entirely new systems, to avoid US sanctions and sell oil to China.

From drones to rocket fuel, China and Russia are helping Iran through supply chains

By Kimberly Donovan and Emily Ezratty

The US will need to confront China and Russia about their support for the Iranian regime and their schemes to evade sanctions and export controls.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis will ripple across plastics and food supply chains, helping Beijing and Moscow, hurting Americans

By Joseph Webster and Kate Burnett

The oil and gas blockade in the Strait of Hormuz will tighten petrochemical and fertilizer markets, with geopolitical and economic implications for the United States.

Tracking US military assets in the Iran war

By Joe Costa, Theresa Luetkefend, and Moss Gillespie,

What is the US military committing to the war in Iran? How will that affect the US presence in other theaters around the world—including the Pacific, where the United States faces its most consequential challenge? We’re tracking the aircraft carriers, bombers, and missile defense systems deployed to Operation Epic Fury.

What a Middle East oil and LNG crisis means for China and East Asia

By Joseph Webster, Reid I’Anson, and Kevin Li

China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan would each be affected by a collapse in energy through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed.

Global Foresight 2036

In this year’s Global Foresight edition, our experts share findings from our survey of geostrategists on how human affairs could unfold over the next decade. Our scholars spot “snow leopards” that could have major unexpected impacts over the next decade. And our tech experts put AI’s forecasting ability to the test.