Below is an abridged version of the Forward Defense initiative’s Defense Technology Monitor, a bimonthly series tracking select developments in global defense technology and analyzing technology trends and their implications for defense, international security, and geopolitics.
There are three emerging trends in defense technology to watch in the months and years ahead.
First, innovations in technology, tactics, and operational concepts are driving a shift in crucial military competitions and conflicts. Following Ukraine’s adoption of commercial drone technology, Russia has responded by adopting counter-drone electronic warfare capabilities, placing pressure back on Ukraine.
Second, there are increasing efforts to explore safely and responsibly integrating emerging technologies for military applications: For example, the Department of Defense’s investigation of the utility and risks associated with generative artificial intelligence (AI) and the establishment of a new task group within Task Force 59 focused on operational adoption.
Third, potential adversaries are increasingly viewing conflict with the United States and its partners and allies as a conflict between systems of systems. The recent reveal of the ongoing effort by hackers associated with China to target US civil and military infrastructure via cyberattacks shows how such actors can target critical nodes in the system to reduce a country’s capacity to respond.
Embedded throughout these trends are emerging and advanced technologies that are powering military activities globally. Below are new innovations and initiatives that are shaping global defense.
AI and data
The recent boom in the commercial development and use of generative AI tools such as Chat GPT-4 has triggered both interest and concern from defense and intelligence communities across the world. This is certainly the case with the US Department of Defense, which established Task Force Lima within the Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office’s (CDAIO) Algorithmic Warfare Directorate in August 2023 to investigate the opportunities and risks of generative AI adoption. On January 29, CDAIO launched the first of two artificial intelligence “bias bounty” exercises designed to identify unknown or unanticipated risk areas in large language models.
Autonomous systems
Ukrainian Armed Forces received an initial batch of new AQ-400 Scythe attack drones made by Ukrainian company Terminal Autonomy in December 2023. The Scythe’s design, supply chain, and manufacturing gave Ukraine an easily produced and assembled long-range unmanned aerial vehicle that is highly effective against Russian forces. The drone war has appeared to have entered a new phase, however. This sentiment was put forth in a Foreign Affairs article by Eric Schmidt that assessed that the balance of drone conflict in Ukraine has been altered by the combination of increased Russian capacity, responsive and adaptive Russian tactics, and “Russia’s superior electronic warfare capabilities [that] allow it to jam and spoof the signals between Ukrainian drones and their pilots.”
Platforms and weapons systems
In mid-November, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Izumo-class destroyer Kaga began sea trials following modifications of its deck to allow F-35B fighter jets to take off and land on the ship.
Although Japan has carefully avoided referring to Izumo-class destroyers as aircraft carriers due to post-World War II constitutional provisions, the government decided to convert the Kaga and its sister destroyer, the Izumo, into ships capable of carrying the short take-off and vertical-landing capable F-35B amid growing concern over China’s more assertive territorial claims to the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.
Computing power
On January 17, NATO released a summary of its first-ever quantum strategy, in which the Alliance offered its perspective on the importance of quantum technologies in military-technological competition and on how the Alliance can gain and maintain an advantage in these crucial technologies. The summary begins by noting that advancements in quantum technologies are bringing the Alliance closer “to a profound shift for science and technology” that will have “far-reaching implications” for the economy, security, and defense. It goes on to detail NATO’s strategic vision for a “quantum-ready” Alliance and emphasizes the need to “prevent the formation of new capability gaps in a world where peer competitors adopt quantum technologies themselves.”
Sensors and detection
In late December, a team of Chinese scientists published a paper in the Chinese-language journal Cryogenics and Superconductivity that claimed they had developed an ultra-sensitive version of superconducting quantum interference devices (SQUIDs) at reduced costs. SQUIDs are highly sensitive detectors used to measure extremely weak magnetic fields. Improving undersea detection and operations is an understandable priority for the People’s Liberation Army as the United States has long been perceived as having a significant undersea advantage.
The information domain, cyber, and the electromagnetic spectrum
On January 31, the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) urged manufacturers of small office and home office routers to ensure their devices are secure against ongoing cyberattacks attempting to hijack them, especially those coordinated by Chinese hacking group Volt Typhoon (also known as Bronze Silhouette). The CISA announcement followed acknowledgment from the US Federal Bureau of Investigation that it had sought and received court authorization to remotely disable a KV botnet attack from Volt Typhoon that targeted US critical infrastructure, accessing certain brands of small office and home office routers to hide the activity. These types of penetrations of US civil and military infrastructure hold significant, multilayered risks that include the collection of sensitive information on US infrastructure and the ability to hold this infrastructure at risk, undermine the capacity of the United States to respond to a crisis, and reduce domestic political will for confrontation.
Manufacturing and industry
On January 16, the Atlantic Council concluded its Commission on Defense Innovation Adoption with the release of the project’s final report. The Commission was launched in 2022 with the primary objective to “take the [Department of Defense’s] acquisition process, and Congress’ role in that system, out of the Cold War era.” The result was ten recommendations for policymakers and defense officials.
If you are interested in reading this month’s full issue of the Defense Technology Monitor, please contact Forward Defense Project Assistant Curtis Lee.
Forward Defense, housed within the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, generates ideas and connects stakeholders in the defense ecosystem to promote an enduring military advantage for the United States, its allies, and partners. Our work identifies the defense strategies, capabilities, and resources the United States needs to deter and, if necessary, prevail in future conflict.
Further reading
Thu, Feb 15, 2024
Russian nuclear anti-satellite weapons would require a firm US response, not hysteria
New Atlanticist By Clementine G. Starling-Daniels, Mark J. Massa
If fielded, such weapons would directly challenge norms of responsible behavior in space and present a serious risk to all nations’ satellites.
Tue, Jan 16, 2024
Atlantic Council Commission on Defense Innovation Adoption: Final report
Report By
The DoD must accelerate defense innovation adoption from the leading edge of the private sector. This report has ten recommendations to do so and features eight vignettes that explore how these actions may play out in practice.
Wed, Jan 10, 2024
Commission on Defense Innovation Adoption tracker
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Implementing reforms to increase the speed of defense innovation and capability development has been an increasing priority for policymakers in Congress and the Department of Defense (DoD) in the past year. Following the publication of the Commission on Defense Innovation Adoption’s interim report and final report, Congress and the DoD took actions to ensure defense […]