Nicolás Maduro is out. But who’s in? Early on Saturday morning, the US military removed the Venezuelan strongman from power, transporting him to New York to face narcoterrorism charges. President Donald Trump said the United States will now “run” Venezuela and that Maduro’s former vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, has assumed the presidency for now. What does it all mean for the United States, the Venezuelan people, and the country’s oil? Our experts have the preliminary answers.

• Jason Marczak (@jmarczak): Vice president and senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center 
• Iria Puyosa (@NSC): Senior research fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Democracy+Tech Initiative and a native of Venezuela 
• Alexander B. Gray (@AlexGrayForOK): Nonresident senior fellow with the GeoStrategy Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, and former deputy assistant to the president and chief of staff of the White House National Security Council 
• David Goldwyn (@Dlgoldwyn): Chairman of the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center’s Energy Advisory Group and former US State Department special envoy and coordinator for international energy affairs 

Changing the regime

• “This is the most consequential moment in recent Venezuelan history—and for the broader Latin American region,” Jason tells us. “This operation goes beyond a simple extradition: It is a regime-change effort.” 
• For now, Rodríguez—who was very much a part of the Maduro regime—is in power, though she “does not appear to have the backing of all factions within the ruling party,” Iria notes.  
• “Rodríguez cannot guarantee the stability required for” the Venezuelan economic revival that Trump is calling for, Iria adds. “Chavismo no longer enjoys the widespread popular support it had two decades ago.” 
• Jason points out that Rodríguez is constitutionally obligated to call new elections within thirty days, but even that step would in effect come from the same regime that stole an election rightfully won by the opposition in 2024. Trump called for a “safe and judicious transition,” but Jason notes that “many entrenched actors are likely to resist meaningful change,” even though “real change is fundamental to US interests and to the Venezuelan people.” 

Sign up to receive rapid insight in your inbox from Atlantic Council experts on global events as they unfold.

The Trump Corollary

• Trump’s 2025 National Security Strategy outlined a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine, with a focus on securing the Western Hemisphere. This operation tells us the Trump Corollary “is officially in effect,” Alex says. “Washington has demonstrated a long-overdue commitment to hemispheric security.” 
• And US adversaries are watching. The operation “will be seen in Beijing and Moscow as an unambiguous sign of the Trump administration’s commitment to a security order compatible with American interests,” Alex explains. 
• The operation, Alex adds, “creates a once-in-a-generation opportunity for Washington to translate its security preferences into strategic reality” by “ensuring extra-hemispheric powers like China and Russia are excluded from meaningful influence in Caracas.” 
• Trump also sent a message to other leaders in the region. “Trump mentioned Colombia and Cuba as countries whose leaders should now know the consequences of not cooperating with the United States,” Jason points out. 

Oil outcomes

• Trump spoke of bringing back US oil companies that were booted out by Venezuela’s 1976 nationalization of the oil industry. But “few US companies are likely to return to the country until there is a reliable legal and fiscal regime and stable security situation,” David tells us. “Companies that have existing operations are much more likely to revive and expand them if the environment is secure.” 
• The United States has plenty of policy options at its disposal, David says. For example, the administration “could allow oil currently on tankers to be exported, expand licensing, and permit Venezuela to sell oil at market prices, all for the purpose of maximizing national revenue.” 
• But, David adds, “until there is clarity on sanctions and licensing and more information on who is actually managing the central bank and ministry of finance, the prospects for Venezuelan oil production and exports will remain uncertain.” 

Further reading

Fri, Dec 5, 2025

After Maduro

New Atlanticist By Jason Marczak

Opposition leaders have a plan for a democratic transition when Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro leaves power.

Corruption Democratic Transitions

Sat, Jan 3, 2026

Experts react: The US just captured Maduro. What’s next for Venezuela and the region?

Dispatches By Atlantic Council experts

What does the future hold for Venezuela following the US raid that removed Nicolás Maduro from power? Atlantic Council experts share their insights.

Democratic Transitions Latin America

Tue, Nov 25, 2025

How Venezuela uses crypto to sell oil—and what the US should do about it

New Atlanticist By Maia Nikoladze

As US sanctions on Venezuela have intensified, the Maduro regime has grown increasingly interested in leveraging digital assets to facilitate oil transactions.

China Digital Currencies

Related Experts: Jason Marczak, David L. Goldwyn, Iria Puyosa, and Alexander B. Gray

Image: A person holds a Venezuelan flag as government supporters gather after U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. has struck Venezuela and captured its President Nicolas Maduro, in Caracas, Venezuela, January 3, 2026. REUTERS/Gaby Oraa