Middle East North Africa Politics & Diplomacy
Report October 26, 2021

North Africa 2030: What the future holds for the region

By Frederick Kempe, Giampiero Massolo, Yahia Zoubir, Abdelkader Abderrahmane, Pietro Gagliardi, Guillaume Biganzoli, Aldo Liga, Nader Kabbani, Nejla Ben Mimoune, Hannah Abdullah, Karim Elgendy, Shlomo Roiter Jesner, Jay Mens, Armando Sanguini, Karim Mezran, and Alissa Pavia

In the last decade, several events redefined North Africa’s heterogeneous character and identity. This year marks the tenth anniversary of the beginning of the Arab spring, but most of the root causes fueling the unrest remain unaddressed. The region is undergoing a delicate phase in its political, social, and economic life, and the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impact have further exacerbated pre-existing vulnerabilities and inequalities, triggering frustration and distrust among North African citizens towards institutions, ruling elites and political parties.

In partnership with the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center is pleased to present its latest report, “North Africa 2030: What the Future Holds for the Region,” edited by Karim Mezran and Armando Sanguini. The edited volume with contributions from regional experts including Yahia Zoubir, Abdelkader Abderrahmane, Pietro Gagliardi, Aldo Liga, Hannah Abdullah, Nader Kabbani, Shlomo Roiter Jesner, and Alissa Pavia reveals that North Africa still faces an array of challenges –  transnational terrorism, illegal migrant smuggling, poor local governance, and lack of basic infrastructure – that pose severe threats to North Africa’s economic, social, and political development. The report also notes that greater political stability, good governance, renewable energies, sustainable urbanization and greater employment opportunities for the youth are vital for creating prosperity in North Africa. The report also includes analysis on socio-economic and political trends in Libya, Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco.

For media inquiries, please contact press@atlanticcouncil.org.

Preface | Frederick Kempe and Giampiero Massolo

Chapter 1: “Political, Economic, and Security Challenges in North Africa” | Yahia Zoubir and Abdelkader Abderrahmane

Chapter 2: “Governance in North Africa: Taking Stock for Future Change” | Pietro Gagliardi and Guillaume Biganzoli

Chapter 3: “Managing Climate Change and Mapping and Energy Transition in North Africa” | Aldo Liga

Chapter 4: “North African Cities Actors for Sustainably Development or Sites of Imported Urban Visions?” | Nader Kabbani, Nejla Ben Mimoune

Chapter 5: “A New Demographic Opportunity Approaches: Will North Africa (Again) Fail to Catch it” | Hannah Abdullah and Karim Elgendy

Chapter 6: “Regional Cooperation and Permeability to External Influence” | Shlomo Roiter Jesner and Jay Mens

Conclusions | Armando Sanguini, Karim Mezran, and Alissa Pavia

Through our Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East and Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, the Atlantic Council works with allies and partners in Europe and the wider Middle East to protect US interests, build peace and security, and unlock the human potential of the region.

Related Experts: Frederick Kempe, Karim Mezran, Abdelkader Abderrahmane, and Alissa Pavia