On August 12, Foreign Policy published its biweekly “It’s Debatable” column featuring Scowcroft Center acting director Matthew Kroenig and Emma Ashford assessing the latest news in international affairs.
In their latest column, they debate whether an attack on Crimea will change the course of the war in Ukraine.
I think there is a case for cautious optimism… Ukraine has just recently received more advanced Western weapons… [W]ith the free world behind it, I think Kyiv also has the advantage in terms of the resupply of material. The Ukrainians have a morale edge… Ukraine is just now launching this new offensive in the south, so we have yet to see what might be possible there… I think it is too early to declare victory, defeat, or stalemate.
If the Ukrainians cannot make advances in the coming months, Western leaders should be seriously looking at ways to wind this conflict down rather than prolong a stalemate at such enormous costs.