GeoEconomics Commentary & Analysis

Don’t ignore the exchange rate: How a strong ruble can shield Russia

By Charles Lichfield

Western governments should remember: Relying on the medium- to long-term effects of sanctions gives Russia plenty of time to prepare.

A new type of global recession

By Josh Lipsky

For the first time, it's China's pronounced slowdown which could be the single largest factor in creating a global recession.

Dashboard: Tracking the Western response to the war in Ukraine

By Atlantic Council

Explore the Atlantic Council's interactive trackers for how the world has responded by sending humanitarian and military aid, redeploying forces, and hammering Russia's economy.

Trade facilitation and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework

By Niels Graham

At the end of May, US President Joe Biden is expected to formally launch the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF). The framework is the United States’ first attempt to create a large-scale, multilateral, Asia-focused economic strategy since 2017. For the framework to achieve broad participation, trade facilitation ought be a key component.

China’s faltering “zero COVID” policy: Politics in command, economy in reverse

By Jeremy Mark, Michael Schuman

Could Beijing's doubling down on the "zero COVID" policy undermine the narrative of China’s superiority in responding to the pandemic—and the image and stature of Xi’s rule?

Deploying QT – The Fed readies its new tool to fight inflation

By Ole Moehr

June 1 onwards, the Fed will begin to reduce the size of its balance sheet, i.e., conduct quantitative tightening. But how does QT work, what are its goals, and are there potential risks of the policy?

Global Sanctions Dashboard: Russia and beyond

By Charles Lichfield, Maia Nikoladze, Sophia Busch and Castellum.AI

Checking the pulse of the Russian economy; Africa’s illicit gold trade, North Korea’s missile tests, and recent cyber sanctions.

AC Selects: The future of UK financial markets and US support for Ukraine

Week of April 29, 2022 Last week, the GeoEconomics Center and the Centre for Policy Studies jointly hosted the future of UK banking and finance conference to convene senior British, US, and European leaders to discuss policy proposals concerning UK capital markets, taxation, and competitiveness. Also, the Eurasia and Scowcroft Centers hosted an #ACFrontPage event […]

Wargaming a Western freeze of China’s foreign reserves

By Hung Tran

China's new Financial Stability Law creates a new framework for furthering financial stability in the country. This has implications for the United States, which is undergoing fiscal tightening, as well as emerging markets, where portfolio capital has begun flowing outward.

Stocks on Mars and savings accounts on Venus? Accelerating female economic empowerment by narrowing the wealth gap between men and women

By Alexis Crow

Temporary and structural policies now aim to boost women's economic prospects that have been diminished by the pandemic. But the question begs to be asked: what is the next “big thing” in female economic empowerment, and accordingly, in ESG policy and investment?