Scowcroft Center Commentary, Analysis, & Reports

The Proliferation Security Initiative: Challenges and Perceptions

By Barry W. Coceano

Since the ascendance of terrorism as one of the major threats to international peace and security, or at least the world’s realization of terrorism as such, the potential proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) has acquired a new dimension of threat. The evident interest in WMD shown by terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda […]

Regional conflicts: Strategies for quelling violence and prospects for Sino-U.S. cooperation

This paper explores the choices and trade-offs that the United States typically faces when it considers the problem of quelling violence in failing states and chronically unstable regions. After first considering the hazards posed by these regions, the paper explicates the tools and techniques required by various courses of action.  It also discusses some of […]

Preventing state failure: Steps toward closer cooperation between China and the United States

This paper sketches the outlines of a more systematic approach to non-military cooperation and preventive action that China and the United States might take to prevent state failure. It focuses mainly, but not exclusively, on greater Asia, defined broadly to range from Southwest Asia (the Middle East north and east of the Persian Gulf) through […]

American Perspectives on the Threat Posed by Weak and Failing Asian States

This paper begins by analyzing the threat weak and failing states might present and identifying Asian states that might be of concern. Second, it reviews the current U.S. administration’s public statements on the Asian states it considers weak or failing.  Third, the paper concludes with an effort to track the extent to which U.S. public […]

Do Economic Sanctions Work?: Lessons from ILSA and Other US Sanctions Regimes

By Stuart E. Eizenstat

Economic sanctions have been a frequently used tool of U.S. foreign policy in recent years. One of the most controversial applications of sanctions has been through the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA), which was originally passed into law in 1996 and renewed in 2001. Events since the Act’s passage have, however, raised questions about the effectiveness […]

Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration: A Practical Field and Classroom Guide

Programmes for the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) of former combatants have become an integral part of peacekeeping operations and post-conflict reconstruction plans. There is hardly any UN peacekeeping mission that is not confronted with aspects of DDR programmes. A number of countries have also implemented demobilisation programmes as part of a national security sector […]

Transforming the NATO Military Command Structure: A New Framework for Managing the Alliance’s Future

The current NATO command structure is insufficient to manage the individually formidable tasks of changing doctrine; out of area operations; emerging and unpredictable threats and asymmetric strategies; cleaner “supported-supporting” command relationships; integration of joint forces; and making the transition from threat-based to capabilities-based force development simultaneously. Download the PDF

U.S.-Libyan Relations: An Analytic Compendium of U.S. Policies, Laws, and Regulations

This compendium presents the texts of the U.S. policy statements, laws, and regulations (or relevant parts thereof) that govern U.S. relations with Libya, on both the bilateral and multilateral levels. Before each document or group of documents is an analytic summary which highlights the context, major provisions, and significance of the policy, law, or regulation […]

Missile defense in Asia

The Atlantic Council asked General Michael Carns, USAF (Ret.), Dr. Jacques Gansler, and Walter B. Slocomb to visit Asia to conduct in-depth discussions with political, military, and business leaders on all aspects of missile defense, including threat assessments, strategic implications, and the likely consequences of missile defense developments for the future security environment and the […]

Transforming NATO Forces: European Perspectives

By C. Richard Nelson and Jason S. Purcell

The papers in this compendium were prepared for a conference in October 2002 designed to illuminate European perspectives on the growing transatlantic military capabilities gap and on how this gap might be bridged. The conference was organized into four panels: the first focused broadly on capabilities, the second on “Spending More Wisely” initiatives, the third […]

Transforming NATO Forces: European Perspectives

The papers in this compendium were prepared for a conference in October 2002 designed to illuminate European perspectives on the growing transatlantic military capabilities gap and on how this gap might be bridged. The conference was organized into four panels: the first focused broadly on capabilities, the second on “Spending More Wisely” initiatives, the third […]

Staying the course: Opportunities and limitations in U.S.-China relations

This paper discusses US relations with the People’s Republic of China and Taiwan. It is based on a report by a delegation of former military and defense policy leaders that were sent to visit Beijing and Taiwan to examine the longer-term issues in relations among the three countries. The paper concludes by offering recommendations for […]

Managing Proliferation Issues With Iran

Any government in Tehran will be inclined to seek weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and missile delivery options given the realities of its strategic environment. These weapons might help Iran to deter potential external threats, to achieve equality with other major regional powers armed with WMD, and to attain self-reliance in national security, given the […]

Thinking Beyond the Stalemate in U.S.-Iranian Relations: Volume II

By Elaine L. Morton

This report examines the full range of US interests in the US-Iran stalemate and suggests measures that could become part of a new strategic approach. It identifies the major issues that will need to be addressed if US-Iranian relations are to improve. In doing so it identifies areas in which cooperative endeavors might serve the […]

The Bulgarian Defense Industry: Strategic Options for Transformation, Reorientation, and NATO Integration

By Jeffrey P. Bialos

This report identifies strategic options available to the Bulgarian government and its defense industry, as well as the United States and its NATO partners, for transforming and repositioning the industry for the 21st century and facilitating its integration into the NATO and European Union industrial base. Since other Partnership for Peace (PfP) countries that are […]

Thinking Beyond the Stalemate in U.S.-Iranian Relations: Volume I

By Elaine L. Morton

This publication addresses the stalemate between the US and Iran. It argues that the stalemate satisfies emotionally many Americans but does not serve overall US interests. According to the paper, it hinders the achievement of several key US geopolitical interests, especially over the longer term. Download the PDF

Strategic Assesment of Central Eurasia

By Charles Fairbanks, S. Frederick Starr, C. Richard Nelson, and Kenneth Weisbrode

This assessment outlines a basis for U.S. national security planning related to Central Eurasia over the next ten years. The region covered encompasses the five former Soviet states of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) and the three former Soviet states of the South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia). Download the […]