Scowcroft Center Research & Reports

New START might be dead, but legally binding arms control isn’t

By Michael Albertson

Who killed New START? Moscow and Beijing's behavior is mostly to blame—but an arms control community that privileged the aspirational and performative over substantive measures didn't help.

Four options for arms control after New START

By Amy Woolf

With the last quantitative limit on the world's largest nuclear arsenals now expired, Washington finds itself in a new and uncertain era, with less clarity about Russia’s nuclear forces, plans to upgrade its own, and growing concern about China's. The best option may be trilateral talks—but not about a new arms control treaty.

A strategic asset: Leveraging special security agreements for defense innovation

By Rob Murray

In a world where technological dominance defines military superiority, the United States must use every available tool to stay ahead. Special security agreements are one such tool. Here are the best ways to leverage these agreements and the pathfinder projects Washington should pursue to tackle critical defense challenges.

Putin’s next move? Five Russian attack scenarios Europe must prepare for

By Richard D. Hooker, Jr.

Whether emboldened by victory in Ukraine or motivated by a loss to pursue success elsewhere, Russian president Vladimir Putin is likely to continue his campaign of aggression. The Nordic and Baltic region, already subject to a campaign of intimidation, is in the Kremlin’s crosshairs—with these five places at greatest risk.

Global Foresight 2036

In this year’s Global Foresight edition, our experts share findings from our survey of geostrategists on how human affairs could unfold over the next decade. Our scholars spot “snow leopards” that could have major unexpected impacts over the next decade. And our tech experts put AI’s forecasting ability to the test.

Welcome to 2036: What the world could look like in ten years, according to nearly 450 experts

By Mary Kate Aylward, Peter Engelke, Uri Friedman, and Paul Kielstra

We polled geostrategists and foresight practitioners on our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next decade. Check out their forecasts on everything from the future of NATO to the rise of cryptocurrency.

The Global Foresight 2036 survey: Full results

In the fall of 2025, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading geostrategists and foresight experts around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results. 

AI and the future

What does the next year, decade, and beyond hold for AI? We interviewed the Atlantic Council’s tech experts to learn more about AI's future, and whether it can help us better understand our own.

Six ‘snow leopards’ to watch for in the decade ahead

By Uliana Certan, Nikita Shah, Ginger Matchett, Sarah Wallace, Dominique Ramsawak, Tatevik Khachatryan

Our scholars scan the horizon for the underappreciated phenomena that could have outsize impact on the world, driving global change and shaping the future.

Mining without rules: The risky US bet on the deep sea

By Elisabeth Braw

Amid efforts to acquire coveted critical minerals, in April 2025 the United States permitted deep-sea mining within international waters. Elisabeth Braw explores the implications of the Trump Administration's move for global maritime norms.