In-depth research & reports

A general view of fire assault drill at an undisclosed location in North Korea March 10, 2023, in this photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). Credit: KCNA via REUTERS

Report

Nov 9, 2023

Deterrence is crumbling in Korea: How we can fix it

By Markus Garlauskas, Lauren D. Gilbert

Conventional wisdom in the United States holds that deterrence in Korea is strong, but this widespread confidence is based on a backward look at long-standing assumptions that are no longer tenable, along with rapidly shifting politico-military conditions. This report explains the urgent actions required to get ahead of these changes and maintain effective deterrence.

China Indo-Pacific

Report

Oct 26, 2023

Continued US and allied integration is essential to deter Russian CBRN use

By Natasha Lander Finch, Ryan Arick, Christopher Skaluba

This report presents the findings and recommendations of the Atlantic Council project Conceptualizing Integrated Deterrence to Address Russian Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) Escalation. The objective of this project was to develop an approach for incorporating European allies and partners into the US model of integrated deterrence against Russian CBRN use.

Arms Control Defense Policy

Issue Brief

Oct 13, 2023

Where do US Army special operations fit in a world of strategic competition?

By Richard Angle, Leo Blanken, and Philip Swintek

General Richard Angle, Leo Blanken, and Lieutenant Colonel Philip Swintek argue that building and maintaining relationships is the true competitive advantage of Army Special Forces (ARSOF).

Defense Policy National Security

Report

Oct 4, 2023

The sixth domain: The role of the private sector in warfare

By Franklin D. Kramer

The private sector is the “sixth domain” of modern warfare, argues Frank Kramer, and the government should act to protect it.

Artificial Intelligence Cybersecurity

Issue Brief

Sep 11, 2023

The draft ended fifty years ago. Can the all-volunteer force survive another fifty?

By James L. Jones, Jr., Arnold Punaro

Retired Marine Corps Generals James L. Jones and Arnold Punaro argue that in its current form the United States’ all-volunteer force is on an unsustainable path.

Civil Society Defense Policy

Issue Brief

Sep 6, 2023

Alternative security futures in the High North

By David Auerswald

Climate change, combined with increasing geopolitical competition and hostilities, has focused renewed attention on national security interests in the Arctic. By 2035, how will those variables combine to influence the High North?

China Climate Change & Climate Action

Issue Brief

Aug 16, 2023

Biases blind us to the risk of Chinese military intervention in Korea

By Jonathan Corrado

This paper examines the historical record of cognitive biases, focusing on the US intelligence community’s failure to forecast PRC intervention in the Korean War, despite collecting information and evidence indicative of that outcome.

Arms Control China

Report

Aug 16, 2023

The United States and its allies must be ready to deter a two-front war and nuclear attacks in East Asia

By Markus Garlauskas

This report highlights two emerging and interrelated deterrence challenges in East Asia with grave risks to US national security: 1) Horizontal escalation of a conflict with China or North Korea into simultaneous conflict; 2) Vertical escalation to a limited nuclear attack by either or both adversaries to avoid conceding.

Arms Control China

Report

Aug 14, 2023

How modern militaries are leveraging AI

By Tate Nurkin, Julia Siegel

Tate Nurkin and Julia Siegel explore the implications of incorporating artificial intelligence into military operations and the challenges of the US Department of Defense’s adoption of human-machine teaming.

Defense Industry Defense Policy

Issue Brief

Jul 10, 2023

We don’t really know which NATO allies are pulling their weight. Here’s how to fix that.

By John R. Deni

As NATO allies gather in Vilnius, there will be much discussion about burden-sharing and who’s living up to the 2014 Defense Investment Pledge. But exclusive statistical analysis by John R. Deni shows that spending more on defense doesn’t necessarily add up to contributing more to NATO missions.

Europe & Eurasia National Security
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