Indo-Pacific

I was wrong about fighting China in 2025. But the US still isn’t ready for that fight.

By Mike Minihan

A retired US general reflects on his earlier and controversial prediction that the United States and China were headed for conflict.

China’s warning on US Treasuries—and why its timing matters

By Jeremy Mark, Josh Lipsky

Beijing has joined the conversation on the dollar. It was leaked this week that Chinese regulators have been urging domestic financial institutions to cut back on US Treasuries, and this timing is no coincidence.

Global Foresight 2036

In this year’s Global Foresight edition, our experts share findings from our survey of geostrategists on how human affairs could unfold over the next decade. Our scholars spot “snow leopards” that could have major unexpected impacts over the next decade. And our tech experts put AI’s forecasting ability to the test.

Welcome to 2036: What the world could look like in ten years, according to nearly 450 experts

By Mary Kate Aylward, Peter Engelke, Uri Friedman, and Paul Kielstra

We polled geostrategists and foresight practitioners on our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next decade. Check out their forecasts on everything from the future of NATO to the rise of cryptocurrency.

The Global Foresight 2036 survey: Full results

In the fall of 2025, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading geostrategists and foresight experts around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results. 

Why Bangladesh’s elections will echo far beyond its borders

The outcome of Bangladesh’s February 12 election will likely cast a shadow over other upcoming elections in Nepal and India.

Local and community-driven solutions for development in fragile states

By Elton Skendaj, Peter Mandaville, and Ibrahima Bokoum

This collaborative paper examines community-driven approaches to development from three unique perspectives and highlights the importance of putting local agency at the center of international development work.

The Marine Corps presence in Okinawa is critical to deterring China and North Korea

By Caleb Eames, Amy Cowley

Shifting US forces away from Okinawa would undermine deterrence in the Indo-Pacific by pulling critical rapid-response forces from the First Island Chain.

What to know about the US-India trade deal

By Michael Kugelman, Mark Linscott

Our experts explain what the preliminary US-India trade deal announced on Monday means for the future of the two countries’ ties.