Canadian Analyst Says US Should Signal Moscow To Avoid Any Assault in South
Amid the relative lull in the Russia-Ukraine war, Ukrainian military specialists say Russia may soon re-invade Ukraine to seize a critical overland supply route to Crimea. But some analysts and officials in the West are less worried. In the end, says military analyst Ihor Kozak, we have to guess. Still, the dangers in any new Russian invasion are so great that the US government should take four steps quickly to forestall it, according to Kozak.
Continued Attacks Show Kremlin May Be Preparing Drive Toward Crimea, Analysts Say
Distracted US and European policymakers may feel grateful that this month’s truce has slowed the Russia-Ukraine war. The Obama administration is seized with the Syria-Iraq crisis and Congress has gone home to campaign for the November 4 election. Europe faces an internal battle this week as its newly Euro-skeptic parliament grills nominees for the next European Commission.
But the relative calm in Ukraine may be short-lived, according to Ukrainian analysts who say that approach of winter is sharpening Russia’s strategic interest in launching a new invasion—this time to establish a badly needed overland corridor to supply food, fuel and even water to its newly annexed territory of Crimea. Russia’s combine of regular and proxy forces is poised for such an assault along the 225 miles (375 kilometers) of Ukraine’s southern coast.
Early Voter Surveys Reflect Anti-Russian, Pro-Independence Mood
Ukrainians will elect a new parliament in exactly thirty days, completing the electoral portion of the political revolution triggered by last winter’s Maidan movement. As the campaign began in recent weeks, two Ukrainian polling organizations conducted surveys that yielded similar numbers on the early mindset of Ukraine’s electorate. The table below averages the results of these two polls to show that President Petro Poroshenko’s political alliance, which includes the Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (UDAR) of Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko, held an overwhelming lead of 41 percent in the surveys, which were conducted from August 23 to September 10.
Kyiv Feels Little Supported by the West, Hopes to Survive an Unequal Ceasefire With Russia
A junction of war and politics dominates public life in Ukraine as autumn settles firmly in Kyiv. An unequal cease-fire this month in southeast Ukraine will let Moscow maintain there a core of the invasion force it sent in last month. This has Ukraine’s political elite, feeling too-little-supported by the West, searching in disparate directions for a way to avoid the country’s further dismemberment.
But a deep distraction to that problem is domestic politics, specifically the sharpening campaign for parliamentary elections to be held in just thirty days. The obligatory patriotic rhetoric of national unity is not preventing politicians from seeking votes by working to marginalize even their like-minded rivals.
Police, Masked Thugs Bar Tatar, Other Ethnic Leaders From Attending UN Conference Today
Russian authorities in Crimea have moved since last week to silence and isolate the peninsula’s main ethnic Tatar community and political organization, the Mejlis. Russia’s government has shut down the group’s headquarters in Crimea and tried to prevent Tatar representatives from attending a United Nations conference in New York on indigenous peoples.
Like Poroshenko’s Reception in Congress, It’s a Morale Boost—But Ukraine Is Fighting on Its Own
Yesterday's images from Moscow could hardly be more welcome for Ukrainians: thousands of Russians marching in their capital to condemn their government’s war against Ukraine. The protest was fueled partly by the spreading news in Russia that scores, perhaps hundreds, of Russian infantry, armored and artillery troops have been killed in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and secretively buried.
With today’s edition, the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert newsletter is six months old. Readers will notice that it arrives in a new package: concise and colorful. Its content will remain much the same, although we’re always working to improve it.
Could Ukraine’s parliamentary elections in six weeks produce representatives from eastern Ukraine who might provide a clear alternative voice for that region, distinct from those of the thuggish, Kremlin-sponsored “people’s republics?” If so, that could offer President Petro Poroshenko a set of credible, more moderate interlocutors to bring into negotiations to come over the east’s political future within Ukraine.
Petro Poroshenko Will Ask Congress' Support in Getting US Weapons
President Petro Poroshenko arrives in Washington this week at the most perilous moment in the history of independent Ukraine. After the Kremlin’s months of attacking Ukraine with its proxy militias, it directly invaded southeast Ukraine last month with thousands of regular Russian army troops, thus halting the Ukrainian forces’ advances in regaining control over the region. NATO's reluctance at its summit this month to respond to President Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Ukraine (and his threat to eastern members of the Alliance) forced Poroshenko to accept reluctantly a cease-fire that leaves Moscow’s forces in control of much of the Donbas region and positions them to move deeper into Ukraine.