Three years of Russia’s senseless aggression in Ukraine have caused monumental, unnecessary human suffering but also an irreversible impact on Russia’s energy sector. The war has diminished giants like Gazprom—once a massive revenue crutch for Moscow—into historic economic losers. Now, Vladimir Putin’s narrow path to regaining European gas market share is through liquefied natural gas (LNG)—a modern Trojan Horse of energy influence. Unstopped, he may succeed, as growing LNG exports to European consumers sent €7 billion to Russia in 2024.
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After ending the remaining pipeline exports through Ukraine, Europe is ready to take the leap to address Russia’s LNG leakage into the market, if competitive deals can be reached with alternative suppliers. The EU is welcoming more US LNG to fill these capacities and is also considering investments in LNG projects abroad to boost diversification and security of supply.
President Donald Trump fulfilled his promise to roll back former President Joe Biden’s pause on additional LNG project permits—a vital step to unleash future development. However, permitting is not the only driver for additional LNG capacity. Markets make the final call. Any opportunity to create certainty in a turbulent world would reduce risk for potential investors. Choking off Russian LNG on the global market through sanctions is the surest way to signal a new tangible demand trajectory for Europe and beyond.
But what’s the insurance policy against a resurgence of Russian gas? Unconstrained by the pipeline networks, LNG has the fungibility to reach buyers around the world—often lured in by the highest bidder Because of LNG’s ability to navigate through the global markets, the lasting curtailment of Russian LNG calls for a more comprehensive approach than just an EU ban. Sanctioning LNG where it’s sourced, rather than piecemeal at ports or through a national approach is the most effective way to prevent future supply blackmail from Moscow. The Arctic 2 LNG project sanctions, for example, are a roadmap to impactful project curtailments. Such efforts must be expanded to Russia’s Yamal and Sakhalin-2 LNG project—two significant LNG facilities that have been spared from sanctions to date.
The Trump administration has left the door open for additional sanctions on the Kremlin, if Putin fails to negotiate a peace deal in good faith. Thousands of rockets attacking Ukrainian civilians, including children, and critical infrastructure clearly signal that Moscow is undermining the United States and seeks to continue its brutalities against the most vulnerable populations.
By sanctioning Russia’s biggest remaining LNG projects, the United States and Europe can secure a triple win: stimulate domestic gas production and exports, while applying pressure on Moscow and strengthening transatlantic trade relations.
Olga Khakova is the deputy director for European energy security at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center (GEC).
Haley Nelson is assistant director for European energy security at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center.
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Image: Port of Novorossiysk (Khristina Sergeychik, Unsplash) https://unsplash.com/photos/a-large-cargo-ship-in-a-large-body-of-water-uH9x4q_GXUM