As a new Syria takes shape, Iraq will need to recalibrate its role in the Middle East
The fall of Assad’s regime in Syria has broken the corridor stretching from Iran through Syria and to Lebanon. Iraq (sandwiched between Iran and Syria) now has an opportunity to shift its focus toward securing its borders and minimizing domestic security threats. But to succeed in this effort, the Iraqi government must navigate several challenges, recalibrate its role in the region, and balance its foreign relations—including with the United States—in response to Iraq’s national security needs and Syria’s recent developments.
After US forces in Iraq toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003, the Assad regime effectively turned Syria into a training ground, with terrorist groups entering Iraq to commit heinous acts. That played a major role in destabilizing Iraq, and the Assad regime ultimately contributed to the killing of thousands of Iraqis. The Iraqi government worked diligently to cast a light on the Assad regime’s practices, including by referring these violations to the United Nations when, in 2009, former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki appeared to accuse the Assad regime of being behind two bombings on government buildings in Baghdad and asked the United Nations envoy to form a fact-finding commission to investigate these terrorist acts.
But the Iraqi government’s position changed after the Syrian uprising in 2011 and the rise of an assortment of terrorist organizations (many active in Iraq) that were vying to replace the Assad regime. The Iraqi government pragmatically preferred Assad as the lesser evil and refused to contribute to his downfall. While Assad was not able to cause Iraq any harm, as he was preoccupied with the existential threat he faced in the civil war, threats from Syria have not subsided. Then in June 2014, the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) began an offensive from Syria, overrunning the Nineveh province and proceeding to occupy one-third of Iraq’s territory. It took Iraq and an international coalition three years of brutal fighting to defeat ISIS and liberate the areas the terrorist group controlled.
SIGN UP FOR THIS WEEK IN THE MIDEAST NEWSLETTER
With Assad out of Syria, Iraq once again is in a vulnerable position. As a matter of principle, it is untenable for the Iraqi government to accept the new Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa who, under the nom de guerre Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, ran atrocious terrorist operations in Iraq for many years and was responsible for the killing of numerous innocent Iraqi civilians. While almost all relevant governments in the region (and many beyond) seem to be looking past the new Syrian leadership’s terrorist affiliations and are opening lines of communication with them, Iraq cannot ignore the security risks arising along its 372-mile border with Syria. Such dangers may come as a result of direct hostility by the new regime, but they also may come from the ungoverned territories of northeastern Syria, where the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are on the verge of collapse under threats from Turkey and the new Syrian government, a collapse that could be avoided if the United States expresses a strong commitment to the Kurdish group. The SDF currently keeps several detention camps, and the most concerning among them is al-Hol, which hosts some forty thousand detainees, including alleged ISIS affiliates, families, and sympathizers. The majority of them are Iraqis.
In recognition of these dangers, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani sent the newly appointed director of national intelligence, Hamid al-Shatri, to meet the new Syrian government in December last year to discuss Iraqi security concerns. The Iraqi government also sent Minister of Foreign Affairs Fuad Hussein to represent Iraq at January 12 meetings in Saudi Arabia, which gathered partner and neighboring countries in a conversation about supporting Syria. By engaging in this way, the Iraqi government has shifted the burden of establishing good-faith security cooperation to the new Syrian leadership.
The challenge for Iraq in the coming months will be twofold: On the one hand, there is the long border with Syria, where several hostile armed groups operate without any opposition from the Syrian side. The Iraqi security forces will have to multiply their resources and vigilance to maintain border security. The scale of this threat will depend on whether Syria is heading toward stability or disintegration into conflict. On the other hand, Iraq will face serious internal pressure from changing geopolitical conditions. For example, Assad’s fall marks the beginning of a new era, one in which Turkey could see its influence spreading across what used to be an Iranian sphere of influence. The Iraqi leadership will be under great pressure from Iran, which seeks compensation for its recent loss of influence, including by having a better political, economic, and security posture in Iraq. At the same time, Iraq will also be under pressure to recalibrate its bilateral relations with the United States. The new reality in Syria will push Iraq and the United States to revisit the recently reached troop-withdrawal agreement, with the Iraqi government simultaneously navigating its need to ensure its territorial security and the scrutiny of rival groups who call for the timely adherence to troop withdrawal.
To test the new geopolitical reality, Sudani made an important visit to Iran on January 8 where he met with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The visit resulted in a lot of analysis and speculation about a possible Iraqi effort to persuade the Iranians to agree to a deferment of the US troop withdrawal and the demilitarization of the Iraqi armed groups that identify primarily with Iran. The speculation was put to rest by the X account of the Iranian supreme leader, which put out several concise statements. On the first issue, the ayatollah said the presence of US forces in Iraq is “illegal and contrary to the interests of the people and the government.” On the question of the Iraqi fighting forces, he said that the Popular Mobilization Forces represent “a crucial component of power in Iraq, and more efforts should be made to preserve and strengthen it”—adding that Sudani “emphasized” this as well. The supreme leader argued, in a third statement, that “the more developed and secure Iraq is, the more it will also benefit the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Whatever the bilateral talks may have accomplished, it all has been overshadowed by these three short statements.
It is now up to the government of Iraq to balance its regional policies with full consideration of the opportunities and the challenges the fall of Assad has put forward. At the same time, it will have to be mindful not only of the new Syrian political order but also the change of posture that major regional and international actors will make in the post-Assad era.
Abbas Kadhim is the director of the Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative. Follow him on X: @DrAbbasKadhim.
Further reading
Fri, Jan 10, 2025
To help build the new Syria, the US needs to better understand the Kurds and Arabs of the northeast
MENASource By Ömer Özkizilcik
Washington should take note of the complexities in the region and not be bound by the past. The security of the entire region is at stake.
Wed, Oct 2, 2024
After Operation Inherent Resolve: How to not mess up US-Iraq security relations again
MENASource By C. Anthony Pfaff
The importance of broadening US relations with Iraq beyond counter-terror operations cannot be overstated.
Wed, Nov 6, 2024
Iraq’s 2024 budget: Not what it appears when it first meets the eye
Report By Ahmed Tabaqchali
Iraq’s budget update seems straightforward but holds hidden complexities. A closer look uncovers discrepancies between appearances and realities, offering insights into Iraq’s fiscal strategy and the structural challenges shaping its economic future.
Image: A member of the Iraqi security forces takes part in an event marking the Iraqi Police Day in Mosul, Iraq, January 9, 2025. REUTERS/Khalid al-Mousily