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MENASource January 21, 2025

What a Secretary of State Rubio means for the Middle East: Getting tougher on Iran and tighter with allies 

By Joze Pelayo

Marco Rubio spent fourteen years in the US Senate mixing a record of advocacy for a strong and proactive US foreign policy with careful attention on domestic and local issues in his home state of Florida. He is now set to take the first part of that record to the global stage, as he was unanimously confirmed by the Senate on Monday to be the seventy-second US secretary of state—hours after President Donald Trump was sworn in.

The Miami-native secretary has lately embraced a more isolationist approach to US engagement abroad (such as his vote last April against a $95 billion aid bill for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan) to align better with Trump’s messaging about prioritizing a robust domestic economic agenda. But one of his former advisers recently said that Rubio “still seems to favor a strong, engaged US posture in the world”—and this is a good thing. The United States cannot be everywhere and must prioritize issues critical to its national security, particularly in the Middle East. By straddling the Ronald Reagan-era and Trump-era Republican foreign policy worldviews, Rubio is now well-positioned to counterbalance isolationist voices within the president’s circle.  

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A steadfast advocate for US strength 

Given Trump’s rhetorical tendencies toward isolationism, the choice of Rubio for secretary of state and former Rep. Michael Waltz for national security advisor—and their respective records while on Capitol Hill—may help to reinforce traditional Republican notions preferring a more assertive US foreign policy in the Middle East. This approach is likely to be tough on Iran, supportive of the Gulf states and Israel, and focused on expanding US influence and partnerships in the region. Rubio’s staunch support for Israel and its security concerns, a key aspect of his political career, will also appeal to Trump’s base and a large portion of the GOP’s constituency in Florida. 

Even as some critics disagree with Rubio’s hardline approach to world affairs, his deep and profound understanding of these issues, and his recognition of the United States’ indispensable role in global affairs—especially in the face of a rising China and a more aggressive Russia—make him a crucial voice in shaping US policy. Rubio, as Trump’s chief diplomat, can make the case that both peace abroad and prosperity and security at home are not mutually exclusive. He can lead an assertive foreign policy that still meets the president’s directives, as Rubio outlined at his January 15 confirmation hearing: “Does it make America safer? Does it make America stronger? Does it make America more prosperous?”

Confronting China in the Middle East

Rubio is clear-eyed about the threats posed by Beijing, which he described as “America’s ‘biggest threat” during his confirmation hearing. However, Rubio also mentioned that a China-US armed conflict would be “catastrophic” and should be avoided. His vision and push for a policy of strength to deter China’s abuse of the US-led international system is likely to test Middle Eastern countries’ relationship with Beijing—especially Chinese efforts and capabilities to acquire US/Western technology through cooperation with US partners in the region. 

For example, China continues to act as a free-rider in the Red Sea, benefiting from US naval protection while failing to act as the responsible world leader it aspires to be and to use its agreement with the Houthis to deter attacks on international shipping. 

What’s in store for the Gulf states?

Rubio is committed to containing Iran and assured Congress during his January 15 hearing that a nuclear-capable Iran, with the resources and military capabilities to continue its sponsorship of terrorism to destabilize the region, cannot be tolerated under any circumstances. These conditions will likely be part of any future US-Iran deal, which the secretary of state remains open to. However, Rubio’s hardline stance on Iran may also face obstacles with some more moderate Gulf states that view Iran differently than they did during Trump’s first term and have taken a more conciliatory tone toward Tehran in recent years. 

Nevertheless, Rubio sees Gulf allies as essential for containing Iran and as key partners in tackling terrorism threats. He is likely to seek to build on Trump’s first-term close relationships with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and to close an Israel-Saudi Arabia deal with a Palestinian state as part of a regional grand bargain. The senator has endorsed the deal with Israel as having many security benefits for Saudi Arabia. 

Given Rubio’s commitment to maintaining a strong US force posture in the region, he will likely be supportive of the 2024 deal that extends and expands the Al Udeid military base in Qatar, relying on Doha to maintain and invest in reinforcing the US military presence in the region. While issues like the Al Jazeera news network’s editorial line could remain contentious, the rift seen in the first Trump term with Doha is also unlikely to be repeated. That’s because of the strategic importance of Qatar’s access to all actors—especially adversarial ones, such as Hamas, given that Doha’s pressure on the group may have contributed to a ceasefire in Gaza—which is an asset to an incoming administration interested in making deals. However, Rubio and the Trump administration will likely increase pressure on Doha to end its hosting of Hamas officials in the country (as seen in a letter Senate Republicans wrote to the Biden-Harris administration in November 2024, which was signed by Rubio). 

Unlocking historic opportunities for the region

Rubio emphasized during his confirmation hearing that there are historic and extraordinary opportunities in the Middle East that did not exist three months ago. He pointed to recent developments in Syria and their implications for Lebanon, as well as the future of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. While Rubio is one of the most qualified of the president’s Cabinet picks—and although his insights into the region’s outlook are invaluable—his views are unlikely to surpass Trump’s own instincts on key matters. 

However, Rubio’s close ties to Waltz and his role in helping Trump on the campaign trail should work in his favor in shaping the president’s foreign policy decision-making. Having the secretary’s principled views in the room is promising for a US policy in the Middle East that is more assertive, able to get concessions in challenging situations, and likely to meet the expectations of a new mandate from the voters who, as Rubio said, “want a strong America.”

Joze Pelayo is an associate director at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative.

Further reading

Image: Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks after he was sworn in by Vice President J.D. Vance, in the Vice President's ceremonial office at the White House in Washington, DC, on January 21, 2025. (Photo by Oliver Contreras/Pool/ABACAPRESS.COM)No Use *** World Rights ***.