Negotiations with Russia to end the fighting in Ukraine will begin “immediately,” announced US President Donald Trump on Wednesday. He dispatched his team to Europe to push ahead on the details. Trump and team may be inclined to overlook Europe as a partner in negotiations, but doing so would only benefit Moscow and be a disservice to Washington and Kyiv.
Washington is moving quickly, reflecting the priority Trump has put on resolving, or at least ending, the fighting in Ukraine. Trump’s forward-deployed team includes Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, and special envoys Keith Kellogg and Steve Witkoff. These US officials have been and are meeting with European leaders, including top Ukrainian officials, in the coming days. Opening salvos in approaches to a cease-fire have been articulated, and Trump has already floated the possibility of a meeting with Russian President Vladmir Putin “in the not so distant future.”
Europe has not featured prominently in the administration’s efforts so far, and it will likely be an uphill battle to convince the Trump team that involving Europe as a partner in the negotiations with Russia is a positive strategy. Early indications from Hegseth’s visit to Brussels read more like pronouncements than consultative sessions.
Working in partnership with Europe may not fit Trump’s style either. Coordinating and deliberating with allies, as was US President Joe Biden’s strategy, is agonizingly slow at times, and it would likely clash with Trump’s decision-making process. And he has a spotty track record with working with multilateral institutions, such as NATO, the Group of Seven (G7), and the European Union (EU). Already in his second term, he has initiated the makings of a trade war with the EU, which does not help. And most importantly, Europe has still not convinced many in Washington to take it seriously as a security actor.
Trump is right to push for US leadership in negotiations, but including Europe as a partner in negotiations will strengthen his hand in discussions with Putin.
However, Europe does matter for Ukraine. The EU and its members (not to mention the United Kingdom, which has also stepped up) are the largest total supporters to Ukraine, supplying $145 billion in assistance. US military support remains critical, but Europe has provided $52 billion in miliary support, and it is the largest provider of military training to Ukrainian troops. The EU’s support has also helped keep Ukrainian emergency services, hospitals, schools, utilities, and government services running. Europe must do more, but Ukraine would not be in the position it is today without European support.
What’s more, having Europe on board would be a value-add for Washington in negotiations. Ratcheting up military support to Ukraine to compel Russia to negotiate and give Kyiv leverage—as some Trump advisers have suggested—will benefit from coordination with Kyiv’s supporters in Europe. The vast majority of Russia’s frozen state assets remain in EU jurisdictions, and the future of those assets in negotiations will be a matter for Brussels to act upon. Further, the United States will need to coordinate with Europe on the sanctions regime against Russia, including any effort to lower the price of Russian oil to depreciate revenues, if it is to be meaningful. Progress on EU membership for Ukraine will be an entirely European affair. Simply demanding that Europe move on the above is not likely to be a productive strategy and could subtract from US negotiating power.
Trump is right to push for US leadership in negotiations, but including Europe as a partner in negotiations will strengthen his hand in discussions with Putin. Think of how much stronger Trump would look if he were backed up by more than two dozen European states or the G7’s leaders against Putin’s one-man show. Putin knows this too. European officials have told the authors privately that Moscow is already working to splinter Washington from Europe to avoid this reality.
Most importantly, Europe will need to oversee any peace in Ukraine. Washington has already laid the expectations that Europe must provide the forces and capabilities to enforce a peace. It will be up to European countries to provide the basis for keeping the peace. Working with European partners to determine the makeup of that force, and to what extent the United States can or will be involved as a backstop, is a crucial detail in making clear to Putin that Trump is not just interested in striking a quick deal but is also seeking a strong, durable deal.
For Europe, being excluded from negotiations would be a disaster, not least because Europe will feel the brunt of any bad deal in Ukraine. Forced capitulation of Ukraine to a Russian sphere of influence would likely spark another wave of refugees entering the EU. Europe would also lose an important partner for critical materials and trade. Europe would then have to contend with an emboldened, increasingly revisionist Putin on its doorstep. Finally, Europe’s exclusion would also be a depressing rejoinder to the EU’s geopolitical ambitions. Who would take Europe seriously on China if it cannot even have a role in the security of its own continent?
The fallout from Europe’s weakness would hardly stay on one side of the Atlantic, and it would do harm to the United States as well. Europe remains the primary overseas profit center for US companies and the main source and destination of US investment. Winning Washington’s competition with Beijing will get significantly harder with a feeble Europe. Europe’s inherent insecurity in the wake of a bad peace deal on Ukraine would drag the United States’ security attention further back to Europe. Any US leader under whose watch this scenario unfolds will have to own Europe’s insecurity and the geopolitical and economic fallout for the United States that will come with it. Trump should therefore welcome a greater European role in negotiating and overseeing peace in Ukraine.
This isn’t guaranteed, though, and for that reason, Europe needs to move—fast. EU and European leaders at every level, especially with Trump’s negotiating team and with Trump himself, must make the case for collaboration in negotiations and show their willingness to step up. This means preparing new military aid packages immediately and, most importantly, leaning in on the debate on European boots on the ground.
There are plenty of viable plans for the latter. It is a matter of political will for leaders to embrace them. Time is not on Ukraine’s side on the battlefield and not on Europe’s side for engaging Washington. This weekend at the Munich Security Conference will offer a rapidly closing window for Europe to step up and ensure Munich exorcises rather than recalls the ghosts of appeasement. Europe must move now.
Jörn Fleck is the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center.
James Batchik is an associate director of the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center.
Further reading
Wed, Feb 12, 2025
What to make of the unfolding Trump strategy on Ukraine
New Atlanticist By Daniel Fried
Trump's call with Putin and his secretary of defense's comments with NATO counterparts stirred controversy. But the unfolding strategy could be the basis for a decent outcome for Ukraine.
Mon, Feb 10, 2025
Now is Europe’s moment for decisive action on Ukraine
New Atlanticist By Léonie Allard, Ian Brzezinski
Make Trump an offer he can’t refuse: European allies should propose deploying troops in Ukraine.
Fri, Dec 20, 2024
Europe needs a coalition of the resolute
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Europe must develop a “coalition of the resolute” to provide security guarantees to Ukraine and to show resolve to take more responsibility for their own security.
Image: Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent attend a meeting, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, February 12, 2025. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko